An experimental version of the new Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability has been running in real-time at CIRA since July 2009.  An experimental web page has been set up at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/gparm_glob_test/index.asp.  The experimental Global TCFP product will be evaluated at the end of the year, allowing time for CIRA scientists to make any necessary changes to the product prior to its transition to pre-operations in Spring 2010.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

Figure:  An example of formation probabilities from the Global TCFP product from 23 May 2009, 24-hrs prior to the formation of Tropical Cyclone Aila in the Bay of Bengal.

The Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone – Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA): The data ingest and softwareis now running and producing all the products and graphics in real-time.  File naming conventions and web design has been coordinated with NSOF/NESDIS personnel.  (J. Knaff)

Dvorak Technique Calibration effort: A journal article discussing an evaluation of Dvorak Technique using fixes from two agencies (TAFB – Miami, and SAB – NESDIS) for the period 1989-2007 has been prepared and will be submitted next quarter.  Biases have been quantified with respect to intensity, intensity change, latitude, tropical cyclone size, and translations speed.  Sensitivities are listed in the table below. (J. Knaff)

Table 1. Estimated of Dvorak technique-based intensity bias sensitivities based on intensity estimates within 2-h of aircraft reconnaissance 1989-2007.     

Software that calculates tropical cyclone mean sea level pressure from four operationally available quantities, namely the maximum surface winds, the pressure of outer closed isobar (POCI), the radii of gale force winds and the latitude was implemented at JTWC and tested by Meteo France in La Reunion.  The methodology has been documented in a paper by J. Courtney (BOM) and J. Knaff that is currently in press at the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal (formally the Australian Meteorological Magazine).  (J. Knaff)

In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone formation probability guidance product, large-scale vertical motion will be added as an additional screening parameter, and its effect on the skill of the forecast measured.  The large scale vertical motion field will come from a Q-vector form of the omega equation valid over the entire sphere, which will use the GFS model fields as input.  The omega equation is solved using a vertical normal mode and a spherical harmonic transform.  Work has begun to input the vertical velocities into the product.  In particular, the plan is to input one omega field, which is an average over several vertical levels into the product instead of the omega field at multiple levels. (J. Dostalek)

Efforts to update code which uses AMSU data from NCEP in BUFR format has been hindered by the fact that the code development was planned to be done on a 32-bit machine, but NCEP a 64-bit machine to generate the BUFR files.  As a result, an account on the NCEP computer has been requested.  The AMSU data are used in tropical cyclone intensity estimates. (J. Dostalek)

The NPROVS (NOAA Product Validation System) software will be used to assess the quality of tropical temperature and moisture retrievals from polar-orbiting satellites.  The assessment will be based not only on overall performance with respect to radiosondes and dropsondes, but also on the ability to capture atmospheric characteristics such as low-level moisture, trade-wind inversions, stability indices, and tropopause level.  Work this quarter has been to begin modifying the input files to contain only certain tropical radiosondes to be included in the validation of the satellite profiles.  (J. Dostalek)  

GOES-R Algorithm Working Group effort:An archive of ABI imagery and corresponding MSG SEVIRI window channel imagery for seven different tropical cyclones covering the period from 2006 to 2008, which fell in an archived region of the MSG satellite coverage, has been created. A total of 5764 MSG/simulated ABI images have been processed and quality control was conducted for each TC scene.  Table 1 provides some details. (J. Knaff)

Table 1:  Details of the tropical cyclone cases, the number of simulated ABI (SABI) images and matching MSG images along with the starting and ending times of the database.  Note MSG data consists of 3km, 2-byte (channel 9, 10.8 µm) obtained from the NESDIS server and SABI images are matching 3km, 2-byte images representing ABI channel 13 centered on 10.35 µm.

Analysis of the World-Wide lightning Location Network (WWLLN) data and tropical cyclone intensity changes continues.  The data was expanded to include 2008 storms.  Eastern North Pacific cases have also been added.  (M. DeMaria, R. DeMaria)

J. Knaff provided software that limb corrects raw AMSU antenna temperature data to S. Guimond (FSU) for his work with Hurricane Dennis (2005). 

Tropical cyclone IR imagery of Hurricane Georges (1998) and Typhoon Jangmi (2008) were provided to Lt. Col. N. Sanger (NPS) for his dissertation work.  (J. Knaff)

J. Knaff provided pre-genesis images and MCIDAS AREA files of the disturbance that became Hurricane Helene 2006 to a H. Chang at Georgia Tech for his masters thesis work and journal publication.  FORTRAN 90 modules to read the 1-byte data were also provided.

J. Knaff organized the latest NCAR/NOAA/CSU tropical cyclone mini-workshop on 26 August.  The day-long workshop allowed researchers to present new and continuing studies on tropical cyclones interact and build collaborations.  The agenda is listed below.  There are tentative plans to hold a similar workshop at NCAR in February 2010.

J. Knaff attended and made oral presentations  and was a judge for the student oral and poster presentations at the CoRP Science Symposium held at CCNY, 18-19 August.

Similar to the Dvorak technique for estimating the strength of tropical cyclones, an objective method is being sought to estimate the central pressure of midlatitude cylones over the northeast Pacific using infrared imagery.  Empirical orthogonal function analysis of 10.7 μm imagery was used, as well as the position of the storm and its age.  Step-regression analysis showed that principal components 1 and 2, along with the latitude and age of the storm are the best predictors.  Those four account for around 50% of the variance.  Water vapor imagery is currently being processed for inclusion into the technique. (J. Dostalek)

Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit temperature and wind retrievals will be used to document tropospheric effects of sea surface temperature anamolies in the gulfstream.  Work to get the code running for this particular application is almost complete.  Adjustments to existing code needed to be made to incorporate NOAA-18 data, which is in HDF-EOS format as opposed to the McIDAS format of NOAA-15 and NOAA-16.  The code was also ported to a new machine.  This project is a joint effort with Dr. Dudley Chelton at the Cooperative Institute for Oceanographic Satellite Studies at Oregon State University.  (J. Dostalek)

With help from I. Jirak, continued investigation into the GOES Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), Index determined that data from the GOES Sounder does not provide useful information.  However, we began looking at using the GOES 10.7 band as a predictor, since it can be used to identify the current location of MCSs.  A modified product of this nature may potentially be transferred to NESDIS operations in the future.  (D. Lindsey, I. Jirak)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for May, June and July of 2009. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for May, June and July of 2009 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for May, June and July of 2009.  (C. Combs)

The cloud climatology based on marine stratus depth work with Treena Hartley, Joe Clark and Mel Nordquist from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service (NWS) office, and Becca Mazur with Cheyenne, WY NWS office is continuing. We have had two telecons this quarter to discuss progress and project needs. (C. Combs)

Joe Clark has completed the data set of marine stratus depth for 12 UTC for each day of the study period.  Cloud climatologies for five regimes (marine stratus depth at 12 UTC of 500 feet, 1000 feet, 1500 feet, 2000 ft, and 2500 ft) have been completed for four time periods: May15-Jun15, Jun16-Jul15, Jul16-Aug15 and Aug16-Sep15.  The results are currently being analyzed.  While the Jul16-Aug15 period has enough days in all the regimes for statistical analysis, some regimes in other periods do not, especially 500 ft, 2000 ft, and 2500 ft.  It has been decided that adding years 2008 and 2009 may boost the number of days to acceptable levels.  Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area has started for the summer of 2008. (C. Combs)

Efforts are also underway to place the cloud climatologies into the GFE of both Cheyenne and Eureka.  A test climatology was converted into netCDF format, and tested in the Eureka office.  While the image was successfully georeferenced, more work needs to be done to make sure the values are properly processed. (C. Combs)

On July 7, 2009, a group from the Cheyenne NWS office, including SOO Melissa Goering, Ray Gomez, and Becca Mazur visited CIRA. I gave a slide presentation on the current state of the cloud climatologies, how they relate to Cheyenne, and then discussed how to get them into the Cheyenne’s GFE system.  Becca Mazur came back for a visit on Aug 26, 2009 to discuss the GFE system with CIRA personnel. (C. Combs)

MSG-1 data for hours 0915 through 1315 UTC was pulled from the CIRA archive for Jan-Mar 2006, and MSG-2 data was pulled for Jan-Mar 2008 and  Dec 2007. A region over Europe was sectored out of each image.  I attended and supplied slides for the GOES-R annual review July 23, 2009. (C. Combs)

Product descriptions have now been prepared for all the CIRA products that can be provided by D. Hillger based on GOES imagery: a low-cloud/fog product, a blowing dust product, and a volcanic ash product.  All of these are visualization products, as opposed to quantitative analyses of GOES data. (D. Hillger)

A GOES cloud liquid water particle size retrieval was developed, and is currently being made to run in real time.  This will complement the ice crystal size retrieval which is already running.  We hope to use this product to learn more about things like the relationship between particle size and fog dissipation.  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)

Work on the “Kyrill” case continues. This storm produced widespread wind damage over Germany and surrounding location. This storm occurred in mid January 2007. A simulation of the event was conducted with RAMS and WRF. Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery was produced from both models. Last quarter, a paper entitled “Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method” was submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. (D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria) This quarter a revised manuscript was submitted to IJRS. (L. Grasso)

Synthetic imagery for the 27 June 2005 thunderstorm case was redone due to an error in the code for 2.25 µm. This data will serve as proxy data under the AWG project for convective initiation purposes. Last quarter a manuscript entitled, “An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation” was submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. (L. Grasso, Dan Lindsey). During this quarter the manuscript was accepted with minor revisions. In addition, a revised manuscript was prepared and submitted to IRJS. (L. Grasso)

Collaboration with Crystal Schaaf, project leader of the MODIS 16-day albedo products, continues. Our first attempt at producing a GOES-R ABI true color image was done over southern California. Results look favorable. This quarter, I obtained 16-day albedo data over the domain of the 27 June 2005 case. This will be our second GOES-R ABI true color image. Results continue to look favorable. In addition, a realistic smoke plume was added to the domain over southern California. A GOES-R ABI true-color image will be produced for this example. (L. Grasso, D. Hillger, and R. DeMaria)

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. Isidora Jankov is leading this effort. Results from this work are discussed in a recently prepared manuscript entitled, “An Evaluation of Various WRF-ARW Microphysics Using Simulated GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast”. This manuscript will be submitted for peer-review. (I. Jankov, L. Grasso, M.  Sengupta, P. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D. Lindsey, and R. Brummer)

Collaboration continues with Martin Setvak of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. A paper is being written discussing “cold ring” thunderstorms.  RAMS was run with different temperature structures at the tropopause to offer a possible explanation of satellite observed cold ring thunderstorms. (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

Contour plots of climatological ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico were provided to Ed Rappaport at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL for use in a forthcoming journal article. (A. Schumacher)

On July 8, 2009, several representatives from the Cheyenne WFO visited CIRA to discuss the GOES-R Proving Ground. A priority list of the next set of experimental products that will be provided to them was discussed, as well as suggestions for documenting the feedback on the products. In addition, they agreed to provide a prioritized list of which of the official Algorithm Working Group products that would be useful to their operations. A similar list will be obtained from the Boulder, CO WFO. Methods to incorporate GOES-based cloud climatologies into their operations were also discussed. (D. Molenar)

Rebecca Mazur, Satellite Focal Point from the Cheyenne, WY Forecast Office, visited CIRA on Aug. 25, 2009, to begin work on the incorporation of CIRA’s 10-year cloud/wind regime climatologies into the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE).  Becca provided training on FO use of GFE to CIRA PG staff.

• Format for CYS GFE Wind Regime smart tool defined.
• Sample climatology image converted to netCDF and successfully displayed w/in GFE at Eureka, CA (also participating in project). (D. Molenar)

D. Molenar & H. Gosden participated in the Sep. 28, 2009 teleconference
with Mel Nordquist, Science and Operations Officer from the Eureka, CA Forecast Office.  The purpose of the call was to review EKA staff’s successful efforts to display a test CIRA climatology image in the AWIPS GFE, and to define the next tasks needed to port the climatologies to EKA and CYS.  EKA plans develop smart tools to assist with marine layer depth forecast and aviation stratus burn rate.   CIRA/CYS will focus on developing smart tools to utilize the climatology data to incorporate wind regime information into forecast preparation. (D. Molenar, H. Gosden)

Dan Nietfeld, SOO at the Omaha, NE Forecast Office, has requested access to CIRA Proving Ground products.  Efforts are underway to assist with configuation of OAX AWIPS for ingest & display of the CIRA GeoColor and Low Cloud/Fog products.  (D. Molenar)

S. Miller, D. Molenar and H. Gosden met with Brenda Dolan, CSU Atmospheric Science Postdoctoral Fellow, on Sep. 30, 2009, to discuss a joint project to disseminate real-time polarimetric data/products from CSU-CHILL to the CYS AWIPS. (D. Molenar, H. Gosden)

Satellite detection of Pyrocumulonimbus:  A collaborative effort continues with M. Fromm (NRL) studying wildfire-induced thunderstorms.  Real-time imagery is being collected and analyzed when large fires are burning.  A paper focusing on the 2002 wildfire season will soon be submitted to the Bulletin of the AMS.  A recent pyroCb case from Alaska is currently being studied; see the figure below.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure. GOES-11 Visible image from 9 July 2009 at 2200 UTC over Alaska, northwestern Canada, and the northeastern Pacific.  Fire-induced thunderstorms the previous day in central Alaska sent large amounts of smoke into the upper troposphere and perhaps the lower stratosphere, and the residual smoke can be seen over British Columbia being advected around a High in the northeast Pacific. 

D. Hillger was asked by T. Loomis of the NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab to help prepare the first GOES-14 full-disk visible image, so that it could be made print-ready.  The need for help was necessitated by the un-calibrated nature of the first GOES-14 images, causing some saturated pixels in the image.  Software was written, as a workaround, to eliminate the saturated pixels and stretch the image brightness counts into an eye-appealing image. (D. Hillger)

D. Hillger provided help to P. Wahner at NASA’s Satellite Meteorology Group in Houston TX.  The help involved processing three-color imagery within McIDAS using code developed by Hillger to allow display and looping of three-color AREA files. (D. Hillger)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

20 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 54 teletraining signups, 153 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

Registrations:  146            Completions:  105

LMS totals from January 2005 through September 25 2009:

Registrations:  2431          Completions: 1249

Definitions used in LMS metrics:

Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Water vapor imagery / jet streak analysis for severe thunderstorm forecasting (Dan Bikos).  Expected delivery – spring 2010.
• Basic satellite interpretation in the tropics (Dan Bikos). Expected delivery – Fall 2009.
• Collaboration with Geoffrey Stano (ENSCO) on a training session for total lightning.  Expected delivery – winter 2009.
• The use of GOES satellite imagery with all other available datasets to analyze and forecast severe weather associated with the Dryline (Jeff Braun).
• Update existing training modules on NHC track and intensity models to include Pacific region and look into adding content /references from Arlene Lang’s Tropical textbook (COMET).
• GIMPAP sponsored winter weather research (Henry’s Rule), see note below under research.  A training module based on this research will be delivered in 2010.

Research:

• D. Bikos is collaborating with Jonathan Finch (NWSFO Dodge City, KS) to publish a paper titled “The Colorado-Wyoming Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell of May 22, 2008”.  The topic is based on a conference presentation and seminar.
• J. Braun is collaborating Russ Schumacher, Dan Lindsey, Andrea Schumacher, Steve Miller and Julie Demuth to publish a paper (Weather and Forecasting) that details some of the meteorological, operational and social aspects of the May 22, 2008 tornado case (Windsor Colorado). The title of the paper is “Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Weather Information During the 22 May, 2008 Weld County Tornado.” 
• J. Braun and D. Bikos are collaborating with J. Dostalek in ongoing research regarding analysis of satellite imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  J. Braun is currently working on a paper to be submitted to the National Weather Association (NWA) that will compare and contrast and update the idea of the original paper introduced some 30 years ago.
• Discussion continues on “Quantitative Northeast Pacific Cyclone Analysis…” as well as “COSMIC/Ozone Data Analysis.” Both topics are being developed for future paper/VISIT session consideration.

Collaboration:

D. Bikos attended a training development workshop at the Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) in Norman, OK.  The objective of the workshop was to assist with the development of an AWOC course on QLCS tornadoes that will be delivered to NWS forecast offices.

Both J. Braun and D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and well as local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service.  

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/)

• Blog Statistics accumulated through September 29, 2009:
• 11, 200 total hits.
• Currently averaging about 28 hits per day.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – September 24, 2009.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

Meetings and Calls

CIRA conducted the monthly VISIT/SHyMet conference call on July 16 with participation from NWS Training Branch in Boulder and CIMSS in Wisconsin.  The September meeting took the place of the monthly call. 

The semi-annual VISIT/SHyMet Meeting took place on September 16 and 17, 2009 in Fort Collins this year.  Those in attendance at the meeting were:  Brian Motta, Tony Mostek, Ross Van Til, Mark DeMaria, Dan Bikos, Jeff Braun, Bernie Connell, Scott Lindstrom, and Rick Koehler.  “Remote” attendees included:  Scott Bachmeier, Wendy Abshire, Matt Kelsch, Patrick Dills, Don Rinderknecht, and Jerry Griffin.  For a more detailed look at the minutes of this meeting, please download at: 
ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/braun/VISIT_SHyMet_Meeting_2009.docx

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participates in the COMET monthly satellite call to keep informed of training efforts there. (D. Bikos, J. Braun, B. Connell)

Development of classes for the new SHyMet for Forecasters training course:

• Continuing development of the “Volcanic Ash” training session for VISIT/SHyMet including extensive coordination with Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD) (Jeff Braun).
• Developing web pages and student guide for the upcoming SHyMet for Forecasters course (D. Bikos and J. Braun).
• Continuing development of Satellite cloud climatology training session (B. Connell and D. Bikos).
• Continuing development of “Intro to GOES-R” (B. Connell)

Begin Development of new SHyMet for Hydrologists training course:

• Course topics and some details were addressed at the VISIT/SHyMet Semi-Annual Meeting September 16 – 17, 2009. The following topics are being assessed for relevance of current satellite focused training materials:
  • Nowcasting and short-term precipitation forecasting
  • QPE and the Hydro-Estimator
  • Anticipating onset of heavy precipitation / heavy rain signatures
  • Feature identification and situational awareness
  • Soil moisture / wetness
  • Flooding applications
  • Ice and snow cover applications
  • Land use / watershed characteristics
  • Vegetation indices

CIRA will investigate topics 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9

SHyMet Intern Metrics April 2006 through September 29, 2009: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

204 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA (11 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course (Development Plan composed of 9 individual classes/sessions).  8 Participants completed the course this quarter.

23 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA (0 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course.

SHyMet – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual class/session breakdown through
Sept.  29, 2009 (for “online” training only). 

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes Inclusive (Since April 2006) – 2811

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes for 4rd Quarter 2009 – 188

Total Completed SHyMet Classes for 4th Quarter 2009 – 138 (138/188 = 73%)

Total Completed the SHyMet Course (all 9 classes) for 4th Quarter 2009 –
8 NOAA and 0 Non-NOAA

Individual Class SHyMet Course Metrics – Number Registered through LMS:

1. Orientation:  382 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 24 this quarter.
2. GOES Intro…:  335 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 19 this quarter.
3. GOES Channel Selection…:  357 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 22 this quarter.
4. POES…:  311 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 16 this quarter.
5. GOES Sounder…:  259 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 20 this quarter.
6. High Density Winds…:  252 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 17 this quarter.
7. Cyclogenesis:  260 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 16 this quarter.
8. Severe Weather:  311 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 33 this quarter.
9. Tropical Cyclones:  342 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 21 this quarter.

Meetings and Calls

CIRA conducted the monthly VISIT/SHyMet conference call on July 16 with participation from NWS Training Branch in Boulder and CIMSS in Wisconsin.  The September meeting took the place of the monthly call. 

The semi-annual VISIT/SHyMet Meeting took place on September 16 and 17, 2009 in Fort Collins this year.  Those in attendance at the meeting were:  Brian Motta, Tony Mostek, Ross Van Til, Mark DeMaria, Dan Bikos, Jeff Braun, Bernie Connell, Scott Lindstrom, and Rick Koehler.  “Remote” attendees included:  Scott Bachmeier, Wendy Abshire, Matt Kelsch, Patrick Dills, Don Rinderknecht, and Jerry Griffin.  For a more detailed look at the minutes of this meeting, please download at: 
ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/braun/VISIT_SHyMet_Meeting_2009.docx

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.

Jochen Kerkmann (EUMETSAT) and Jarno Schipper (ZAMG) visited RAMMB on July 28.  Jochen is a Satellite Meteorologist and training officer at EUMETSAT and Jarno is a Meteorologist and training expert at ZAMG in Austria.  Both have developed excellent training materials for Meteosat Second Generation (MSG).  MSG carries the SEVIRI instrument which has similarities to the GOES-R ABI.  In preparation for GOES-R in both product development and training materials, it is very useful to learn about EUMETSAT’s experiences, i.e., what worked well and what didn’t.  Insights from Jochen and Jarno will be very useful. (B. Connell)

The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for July, August, and September 2009) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, NWS Training Division, the NWS International Desk at NCEP, and CICS, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad, Uruguay, and Venezuela.  The participants included researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with a peak of 31 computer connections during the August briefing and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison from the NWS International Desk at NCEP started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  The discussions focused on the extended drought in northern Argentina, the status of El Niño, the MJO outlook, position of the ITCZ and its relation to normal, analysis of tropical disturbances, wind surges and dust events in the Caribbean, a blowing dust event in Bolivia, and the development of a “meteorological bomb” (pressure drops by 1 mb per hour over a 24 hour period) in Argentina, as well as simple cloud identification.  (B. Connell)

Barbados has also been conducting bi-monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region and to stimulate discussion and collaboration during the Hurricane season.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.  (B. Connell)

GOES-12 imageryfor June through August 2009 were processed for the Regional Training Centers (RTC) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and to detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for June through August 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1. (B. Connell)

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for June, July, and August 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for June through August 1999-2009 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2. (B. Connell)

Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for June, July, and August 1999-2009 for Barbados.

Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can now be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). 
Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ (B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

Three new SDI GVAR ingest systems have been installed at the CIRA Groundstation to provide GOES data ingest in a standard McIDAS format.  The third system has been
heavily utilized during the GOES-14 initial check out period.  Efforts are underway to create data archive capabilities for the official GOES-14 check out in December, 2009. (D. Molenar)

The GOES-14 Science Test page has been updated frequently since the launch of GOES-O, which was renamed GOES-14 upon reaching full geostationary orbit.  Included on the web page are significant Post Launch Testing (PLT) events, including the capture of the first full-disk visible images, the first IR images, and the first Sounder images from GOES-14.  These test images, which have been transmitted in GVAR (GOES Variable) format for testing of ground receiving equipment, were especially helpful at CIRA, where a new antenna and receiver were recently installed, and the signal is now being fed to a new ADDE server.  The data flow has allowed the testing of a GOES-14 RAMSDIS, which is constantly monitoring the incoming data from GOES-14. (D. Hillger)

The first GOES-14 full-disk visible image was transmitted in GVAR format at 1730 UTC on 27 July 2009.  The image was successfully captured at CIRA, as well as at other ground stations, such as the University of Wisconsin/SSEC.  The image is not fully calibrated and navigated, but otherwise appears to be of high quality.  A story and image also appear on the StAR (http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/index.php) and NOAA (http://www.noaa.gov/features/monitoring/goes-14/index.html) websites. (D. Hillger)

The first IR images in particular involved a lot of feedback from NOAA scientists due to a couple problems that were encountered.  One problem arose when the number of image elements being transmitted exceeded the assigned limit in the GVAR format, causing extra headers to appear in the data lines, which corrupted the images in bands 3 and 6.  This was solved easily by limiting the number of transmitted lines.  A second problem involved data in two of the detectors in band-6 being flipped.  This problem appears to have been solved as well, revealing the new higher resolution (4 km) data that necessitated a major change in the GVAR format.  Some additional concerns associated with bad images and stray light were brought up this week as well.  Testing will continue throughout the Science Test, which ends in December 2009.  See http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/ for a summary of significant Science Test events, with frequent additions of new information now that GOES-14 is transmitting data.  More detail will be available in the final Science Test report. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: First GOES-14 full-disk visible image transmitted at 1730 UTC on 27 July 2009.  Image quality appears good, even though the image is not fully calibrated and navigated.

The NWS Central Region Headquarters (CRH) Local Data Managment server has been modified so that CIRA may transmit products without assistance to CRH server.           Instructions for ingest and display of Low Cloud/Fog product have been sent to the Boulder, CO & Cheyenne, WY Forecast Offices.  Full CONUS GeoColor is also available for Boulder. (D. Molenar)

The WES version of GFE has been installed on the CIRA experimental AWIPS system.  H. Gosden is working with WDTB to resolve differences with Forecast Office version. (D. Molenar)

Test transmission of GeoColor & Low Cloud/Fog product to WRH server successful;  efforts currently underway to start real-time dissemination and to configure ingest & display at the Eureka, CA forecast Office. (D. Molenar)

To Accepted and Submitted Publications        To Awards         To Presentations

Published:

• Refereed

Goni, G. , M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, C. Sampson, I. Ginis, F. Bringas, A. Mavume, C. Lauer, I.-I. Lin, M.M. Ali, P. Sandery, S. Ramos-Buarque, K. Kang, A. Mehra, E. Chassignet, and G. Halliwell, 2009: Applications of Satellite-Derived Ocean Measurements to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting, Oceanography, 22:3, 190-197.

Goni, G. J, and J.A. Knaff, 2009:  Tropical cyclone heat potential [in “State of the Climate in 2008”], Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 90:8, S54-S57.

Mazur, R.J., J.F.Weaver, T.H. Vonder Haar, 2009:  A preliminary statistical study of correlations between inflow feeder clouds, supercell or multicell thunderstorms, and severe weather.  Weather and Forecasting. 24:4, 921–934.

• Nonrefereed

DeMaria, M., 2009: Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Using Lightning Observations.  Southern Thunder Workshop, 28-30 July, Cocoa Beach, FL.

Hillger, D.W., R.L. Brummer, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, R. DeMaria, and M. DeMaria, 2009: Production of Proxy Datsets in Support of GOES-R Algorithm Development. Remote Sensing System Engineering II, SPIE, Vol. 7458, 74580C-1, Philip E. Ardanuy and Jeffery J. Puschell, Editors, 4-5 August, San Diego, CA

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2009:  Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, R. Knabb, C. Lauer, C.R. Sampson, R.T. DeMaria, 2009:  A New Method for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities. Weather and Forecasting.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria, 2009:  Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms. International Journal of Remote Sensing.  In press.

Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2009: A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. Weather and Forecasting.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2009:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed

Courtney, J., and J.A. Knaff, 2009:  Adapting the Knaff and Zehr Pressure-Wind Relationship for operational use in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres.  Australian Meteorological Magazine.

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2009:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2009: An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Lazzara, M.A., S.A. Ackerman, D.W. Hillger, 2010: Detecting Fog over Antarctia from Satellite. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Lindsey, D.T, S. Miller, L.D. Grasso, 2009: The impacts of the 9 April 2009 dust and smoke on convection. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2009: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

Zupanski, D., 2009: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Zupanski, M., 2009: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Zupanski, D., M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2009: Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method.  International Journal of Remote Sensing.  (Submitted revised).

Nonrefereed 

Awards:

Presentations:

M. DeMaria gave an informal presentation to NCEP/EMC on preliminary diagnostic results of the HWRF hurricane model performance during tropical storm Erika, which occurred east of Puerto Rico in early September. The HWRF forecasts for Erika were consistently too strong and too far north. The model diagnostic study provided some initial clues as to the sources of the errors. The initialization procedure starts the model with a vortex that is too organized and too deep for weak systems, and appears to lower the environmental wind shear near the storm center. Satellite rainfall estimates were used as ground truth to evaluate the organizational structure near the storm center. (M. DeMaria)

D. Hillger gave an oral presentation at the SPIE Optics and Photonics Symposium in San Diego on 5 August.  The talk, which was part of a Remote Sensing System Engineering Conference, was titled “Production of Proxy Datasets in Support of GOES-R ABI Algorithm Development.”  Among the various conferences were several other talks relating to preparations for GOES-R.

L. Grasso participated in an 80-minute teleconference which was held with forecasters from Offutt Air Force Base, Omaha, Nebraska on 28 July 2009.  Dr. Grasso met some of the forecasters at the WAF/NWP AMS conference in Omaha in June where he gave an oral presentation on the benefits of model-generated synthetic imagery.  D. Hillger joined the teleconference, as some of his material was presented.  (L. Grasso, D. Hillger)

L. Grasso visited the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey (NRL), California for two days in August. I met with 20 scientists and gave an oral presentation on the use of synthetic imagery.

L. Grasso gave an oral presentation at the Development Testbed Center, in August, on synthetic imagery

Knaff, J.A., 2009:  Remote Sensing Observations for Tropical Cyclone Structure Analysis. CoRP Science Symposium, New York, NY, 18-19 August.

Posters:

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, and C. R. Sampson 2009:   Strategies for Providing Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Products from Ensemble Forecast Systems, Third THORPEX International Science Symposium (TTISS), Monterey, CA, September 14-18.

Travel

Naomi Surgi and Vijay Tallapragada from NCEP EMC visited CIRA on September 2 to discuss the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). Methods to better coordinate the NCEP and CIRA activities were discussed, and a local version of the NCEP Hurricane WRF model diagnostics package was installed at CIRA to facilitate collaboration. (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, B. McNoldy)

Andrew Heidinger from NESDIS/STAR/ASPB at the University of Wisconsin visited CIRA. He gave a seminar on August 27 on satellite-based cloud products and had a number of informal visits with CIRA and CSU scientists. (M. DeMaria, S. Miller)

Rebecca Mazur, Satellite Focal Point from the Cheyenne, WY Forecast Office, visited CIRA on Aug. 25, 2009.

Jochen Kerkmann (EUMETSAT) and Jarno Schipper (ZAMG) visited RAMMB on July 28.  Jochen is a Satellite Meteorologist and training officer at EUMETSAT and Jarno is a Meteorologist and training expert at ZAMG in Austria.  Both have developed excellent training materials for Meteosat Second Generation (MSG).  MSG carries the SEVIRI instrument which has similarities to the GOES-R ABI.  In preparation for GOES-R in both product development and training materials, it is very useful to learn about EUMETSAT’s experiences, i.e., what worked well and what didn’t.  Insights from Jochen and Jarno will be very useful.  (B. Connell, D. Bikos, J. Braun, D. Lindsey and J. Knaff)

Collaborations have been developed with:

1) Yi Jin at NRL: I’ll help her make synthetic imagery of the COAMPS model as part of the HFIP project. (L. Grasso)

2) Huiya Chuang and Vijay at NOAA/NCEP/EMC: I’ll be helping both of them produce synthetic imagery of the operational models. (L. Grasso)

3) Russell Schneider, Chief, SPC science support branch: I’ll be visiting SPC in the spring and fall of 2010 to make synthetic imagery of their operational models. This is being funded by the GOES-R visiting scientist funds. (L. Grasso)

M. DeMaria attended the GOES-PSDI/GIMPAP executive board meeting by teleconference on Tuesday, September 8th. The final set of FY10 projects were selected for funding. M. DeMaria will notify the GIMPAP PIs of the results next week. Of the 18 GIMPAP projects that were presented at the annual review, 15 will be funded or partially funded. (M. DeMaria)

All RAMMB staff fulfilled their FY2009 EEO training requirement by viewing the video entitled “Between You and Me, Solving Conflict.” (M. DeMaria)

D. Lindsey (co-chair) participated remotely in an ICAPOP meeting on 24 September.  (D. Lindsey)

D. Hillger substituted for M. DeMaria at a GOES Operational Requirements Working Group meeting on 28 August 2009, where proposed changes to the GOES-R MRG were discussed. Feedback on the proposed changes is still welcome, with a deadline of one week for comments. (D. Hillger)

EEO Training – August 2009 (D. Hillger)