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RAMMB Scientific Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter FY02

Meteorological


  • Severe Storms

    “Satellite Observations of a Severe Supercell Thunderstorm on 24 July 2000 made during the GOES-11 Science Test” appeared in the Feb 2002 issue of Weather and Forecasting. A formal Comment was received on the article, and a formal Reply is being drafted. Co-authors include John Knaff and Dan Bikos from CIRA, Gary Wade from CIMSS, and Jaime Daniels from NESDIS/ORA. Here is a PDF version of the Bulletin article.

    The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society requested a 400-word synopsis of the GOES-11 paper. The synopsis appeared (Feb 2002) in a new feature section of the Bulletin called Papers of Note which is designed to highlight those papers from other AMS journals that the editors feel might be of interest to the wider target audience the Bulletin is now trying to reach.

    A paper entitled “A satellite perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains tornado outbreak within Oklahoma” by Bikos, Weaver and Motta is scheduled to appear in the June 2002 issue of Weather and Forecasting.

    Documentation of one of the sessions being offered through VISIT teletraining continues. An article entitled, “Lightning Meteorology I: Distance-Learning Training on the Use of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Data in the Short Range Forecast and Nowcasting Processes,” and is nearing completion. The article is being put together by Bard Zajac (CIRA) and John Weaver (NOAA) for the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

    A web version of the VISIT session can be found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

    Work continues on the RSO data archive. So far there are nearly 1,000 RSO case dates on the general list of candidates. Fifteen cases have been selected from the list to begin the archive, and the first seven have been transferred to CD-ROM. Sounder data from several cases are also being transferred to CD to support a study on the nearby environment of severe storms.

  • Tropical Cyclones

    A manuscript entitled, “Annular Hurricanes” by J. A. Knaff, J. P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, was submitted to Weather and Forecasting. The paper documents the existence of major hurricanes with large eyes that are nearly symmetric and have little or no outer rainband activity. The paper also documents the environment in which these storms occur and an objective method for identifying them in an operational setting. An example of one of these storms (Luis 1995) is shown in Figure 1. See past quarterly reports for greater detail. Click on images to enlarge.

    Figure 1: Hurricane Luis 2015 UTC 3 September 1995

    A manuscript entitled “Statistical, Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived From Climatology and Persistence” was submitted to Weather and Forecasting. The paper describes the development and performance of statistical tropical cyclone intensity forecasting models designed for the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and the western North Pacific. The model uses climatology and persistence (CLIPER) as a basis. CLIPER models are primarily run operationally for evaluation of other forecast models as part of the year-end verification process. These 5-day forecast models replace older 3-day forecast models in the operational suit at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as these forecast centers evaluate the issuance of 5-day tropical cyclone forecasts. Independent operational performance of the models in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins are comparable to their predecessors, while the model developed for the western North Pacific produced forecast that were between 5 and 20% better than its predecessor, as shown in Figure 2.

    Figure 2: Homogeneous comparison of mean absolute intensity forecast errors for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basin during 2001 between the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forecast (JTWC), the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Forecasts (STIFOR) and the new 5-day STIFOR forecast.

    A proposal entitled “Development of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities” has been submitted to the Insurance Friends of the Hurricane Center, Inc. The proposed research will determine the error properties associated with the NHC official track, intensity and wind radii forecasts in order to create a map of probabilities of the wind exceeding various thresholds.

    Two progress reports and “Year 2” proposals and funding requests for a Joint Hurricane Test-bed (JHT) projects were submitted. The first of these projects is to improve tropical cyclone intensity forecasts using satellite data. Preliminary results show that ocean heat content data derived from satellite altimetry and GOES infrared data have the potential to improve the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). An experimental version of SHIPS with these new satellite data sources will be run in real-time during the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season for evaluation by the Tropical Prediction Center. The second project involving CIRA and CIMSS describes methods to estimate tropical cyclone intensity and wind radii using the AMSU instrument.

    Case studies of 2001 Atlantic Tropical Storm Chantal and Hurricanes Erin, Felix, Iris, and Michelle, are partially completed. The vertical shear and satellite observed cloud asymmetry, along with their relationship to intensity change, were analyzed. Some of those results are included in an Extended Abstract, entitled “Vertical Wind Shear Characteristics with Atlantic Hurricanes During 2001” by R. Zehr. It was submitted to the AMS 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology to be held April 29 – May 3, 2002 in San Diego, CA. This ongoing project is evaluating independent measurements of environmental vertical wind shear using numerical model analyses, high-density satellite winds, and IR cloud asymmetry. The goal is to improve the quantitative representation of vertical wind shear forcing on observed hurricane intensity changes.

    A manuscript entitled, “Three Approaches to Quantitative Observations of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear with Hurricane Bertha,” was submitted to Weather and Forecasting.

    New images from the late 2001 Season and the 2002 Southern Hemisphere season have been added to the CIRA Infrared Tropical Cyclone archive. As of March 15, 2002, there are approximately 200 tropical cyclones in the archive, with over 50,000 images on 30 CDs. Images are extracted from the 4 km resolution Mercator remaps archived by Tropical RAMSDIS. All images are reviewed for quality and if necessary re-sectorized. Matt McClurg (CIRA hourly) continues to provide support in saving Tropical RAMSDIS images to CD, writing IR Archive images to CD, and assisting with data processing.

    Datasets for studying global tropical cyclones are being collected and archived in a real-time basis. Routine datasets include high-density cloud drift winds, and QuikScat winds, hurricane reconnaissance, surface and upper air reports, and AMSU quick look data sets.

    Programming support was provided for Mark DeMaria and post doctorate researcher Jim Kossin for a project involving the initialization of tropical storms in models. A grib-to-ASCII conversion program was written for use with AVN model data in sigma coordinates.

  • Extra Tropical Cyclones

    A new VISIT training session titled “Cyclogenesis: Analysis Utilizing Geostationary Satellite Imagery” has been completed and will be beta-tested and revised in early April.

    Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder data from NOAA-15 and -16 were collected during the Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment, which took place from January to March 2002.

  • Natural Hazards

    The dormant VISIT session on the Natural Disaster Information Cards designed by J. Weaver has been revived. The new scheduling is a direct result of a request for further session by the NWS Southern regional headquarters. 

Applications Development


  • GOES Product Improvement and Development

    On 23 Jan 2002 an eruption of Popocatepetl volcano near Mexico City was caught with GOES experimental image products that had been designed to look for volcanic hot spots and ash plumes. A 1 km resolution visible loop can be seen at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/KFIntranet/Weeklies/2002/RAMMT/wk04/loop2.html This loop begins just before sunrise with an IR product that shows the volcanic hot spot (black). The visible loop also shows the ash plume (white) as it leaves the volcanic vent and follows the prevailing winds towards the northeast. The 2 km IR loop: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/KFIntranet/Weeklies/2002/RAMMT/wk04/loop.html shows three image products, with the upper-right panel designed to show mainly the volcanic hot spot (white) as well as liquid-water cloud (white), and the lower-left panel showing mainly the ash plume (black). The upper-left image shows how the volcano appears in normal infrared imagery and the lower-right panel shows how the original images are combined to generate the products that are shown. Products such as these generated at CIRA are used operationally at the Washington VAAC.

    The experimental fire products specifically generated for the State of Florida that were displayed for many years on the RAMM website at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/flfire.html have recently been transferred into operations at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl.html Because those fire products are now operational at NOAA’s Satellite Services Division (SSD), their production and display are being suspended at CIRA.

    A manuscript entitled “Detection of Important Atmospheric and Surface Features by Employing Principal Component Image Transformation of GOES Imagery” by D. Hillger and G. Ellrod is being revised for re-submission to the Journal of Applied Meteorology.

    Two manuscripts on analysis of MODIS imagery using Principal Component Image analysis have been revised and re-submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology. The two-part series has been through initial reviews and will be accepted upon a successful second review. 

     


    Future GOES:

    Don Hillger attended a meeting of the sub-committee chairs of the GOES-R Users Group in Boulder, CO, March 26, 2002. Don has taken over the chairmanship of the sub-committee on Instruments of Opportunity.

  • Climatology

    The article “Regional Satellite Cloud Composites for Forecast Offices” by Bernadette Connell, Cynthia Combs, and Mark DeMaria was submitted for the spring CIRA Newsletter. The article highlights regional satellite climatology efforts between CIRA and the Weather Forecast Offices in Tallahassee, Florida and Wakefield, Virginia and discusses future plans to expand these efforts to other Forecast Offices.

    Processing of the U.S. climatologies continues nearly on schedule. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for December 2001 and January 2002, and wind regime composites for November and December 2001, and January 2002. Monthly wind regime composites covering the past four years has been completed for October, November and December (1998-2001), as well as May (1998-2001), which had been postponed last summer due to time constraints. In addition, our first five year, monthly wind regime composites have been completed for January (1998-2002).

    Cindy Combs is currently working with the Cheyenne NWS office to set up climatologies for high wind events for their County Warning Area (CWA). She has received high wind information from senior forecaster Michael Weiland, and initial sectors for the composites have been selected.

    Cindy Combs is also currently investigating the potential of the shortwave product developed by Stan Kidder and Don Hillger for a cloud detection algorithm.

  • Lake Effect Snow

    Lake Effect Snow

    Bikos, Weaver


     

    D. Bikos and J. Weaver are putting together an AWIPS archive of the late December 2001 record-breaking lake-effect snow event. The case will be utilized to develop a new VISIT teletraining session on advanced LES forecasting issues in partnership with the Buffalo, NY and Cleveland, OH NWS forecast offices. The data set is also being considered for inclusion in the NWS Weather Event Simulator.

  • Mesoscale Modeling

    Software development is complete that links RAMS with an Operational Operator for the generation of simulated satellite images. Simulated satellite images are used as input for the Hydro-Estimator for the diagnosis of rain rates. Preliminary testing of the system has begun.

    L. Grasso and J. Weaver are preparing a short manuscript to be submitted as a Note to Weather and Forecasting entitled “Boundary Layer Forcing as a Factor in Thunderstorm Intensity.” The article shows results from a RAMS model study wherein one storm is triggered by weak forcing and a second by strong forcing in the same environment. The paper contrasts storm motion and intensity through the lifetime of both cells.

Outside Interaction


  • National Labs

    El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts created by the Climatology and Persistence ENSO Model (Knaff and Landsea, 1997) will become a monthly contribution to the NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. While this model was originally developed to provide a skill/no-skill baseline forecast for ENSO forecasts, it has performed well over the last 4 years outperforming all of the dynamic and most of the statistical ENSO forecast models available in real-time. As a result, this model has become operational. Figure 1shows the forecasts made using this model with data through 1 March 2002.

  • Universities

    J. Weaver was an instructor at the 3rd Severe Weather Conference for Undergraduates sponsored by College of Dupage, Illinois. He gave a 1½-hour presentation on GOES RSO imagery in the Warning Decision Making process, and was a member of five discussion panels. Other panel members were Dr. Charles Doswell (CIMMS, OK), Al Moller (NWS, Fort Worth), Jim Johnson (NWS, Dodge City), Dr. Paul Markowski (Penn State Univ.), Dr. Erik Rasmussen/Greg Stumpf (NSSL), and Les Lemon (Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.). There were approximately 150 attendees.

    J. Weaver continues his work with Nolan Doesken (Colorado Climate Center, CSU) on a short paper for the Journal of Climate utilizing mesoscale precipitation data collected by volunteers within the Climate Center’s CoCo RAHS (Community Collaborative Rain and Hail Study) study area. There are more than 100 volunteers measuring daily precipitation in and around the Fort Collins area. The observers receive training and a 4″ NWS style rain gauge to make their measurements

    Extensive reviews and feedback have been provided on the MS thesis of Tomoko Koyama. The MS thesis is entitled MODIS Thermal Emissive Band Error Estimation using Structure Function Analysis. Ms. Koyama’s thesis defense is scheduled for the end of March.

  • NWS

    The following interactions between CIRA/RAMM researchers and NWS forecasters took place through various projects: J. Dostalek and J. Weaver with Loren Phillips LBB (NWS), D. Bikos and J. Weaver with Tom Niziol Buffalo (NWS), and the CIRA VISIT staff with the staff at the NWS/WTDB and at CIMSS. NWS offices in Morehead City, NC, Boston, MA and Seattle, WA also helped with the review of the beta version of the new cyclogenesis VISIT session.

    (Also see the section titled VISIT under Technology Transfer and Training below for more NWS interaction.)

  • International Activities

    Connell, Knaff, Zehr, Gosden,Dostalek, Watson


    S. R. Kalsi, of India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, visited RAMM/CIRA for nearly 4 weeks, departing March 28. He is Co-PI on the Tropical Cyclone Project, along with R. Zehr. Activities began following the initial US-India Workshop in New Delhi in February, 1998. A Preliminary Report, entitled “An INDO-US Joint Study of Intense Tropical Cyclones of the North Indian Ocean, ” was completed. The Project’s main objective is to complete case studies of the three 1999 intense cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, that are used to analyze and assess the information content of all available satellite data sets. The Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT), CIRA’s AMSU algorithm, scatterometer winds, and microwave images obtained from the Naval Research Laboratory have been analyzed extensively. Numerical model analyses, and high-density satellite wind data sets are also being investigated.


    Brazil Project:

    A short training course on using McIDAS software was provided to Wilfred Schroeder of IBAMA in Brasilia, Brazil. The local data specification methodologies were explained in order to implement the new data-naming scheme that would house the new data. The addition of the new data-name was necessary due to the satellite data validation campaign scheduled for the month of February. A few commands to display the data were reviewed in order for the data to be displayed manually. Two URL’s of web sites that contained the McIDAS User’s Guide manuals were given to reference the command files:
    http://procyon/ramm/infrastructure/Gosden/RAMSDIS/7.5/man/user/html/McHTML.1.HTML and http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/mug/users_guide/7.5/McHTML.1.HTML

     


    Japanese Interaction:

    Preliminary arrangements have been made with K. Bessho from the Japan Meteorological Agency to visit CIRA in the fall of 2002.

     


    Mitch Reconstruction Project:

    Several troubleshooting sessions were offered to the staff at IMN to resolve problems that were encountered in setting-up accounts, configuring software, and compiling programs on the HP-3000 data server in Costa Rica.

    More troubleshooting efforts helped to solve a data-stoppage problem encountered in Guatemala. The investigation revealed configuration modifications that prevented the scheduler from running properly, and therefore reconfigured the system with appropriate parameters.

    Autoestimator products from the NESDIS server were made available on the data server at the Instituto Meteorológico Nacional in San José, Costa Rica. Updates to the RAMSDIS/McIDAS-NT menu and ingest command files were made to pull in and display these satellite precipitation products in real time. The instructions for installation and files were then distributed to the seven Central American countries to allow them to receive the products. Click on image to enlarge

    Figure 1. Example of RAMSDIS display used in Central America

    The paper “Reconstruction Efforts for Meteorological Offices in Central America in the Wake of Hurricane Mitch” by B. Connell, M. DeMaria, J. Sessing, V. Castro, and J. Purdom was submitted for the 29th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE) to be held April 8-12 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The paper chronicles the efforts to distribute GOES digital satellite imagery and provide training on its use to Central American countries most affected by Hurricane Mitch.


    SICA Project:

    The project officially ended on December 31, 2001, but a web page displaying satellite precipitation estimates and fire products continues to operate at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/SICA/main.html

     


    RMTC Project:

    GOES-8 imagery for December 2001 through February, 2002 were sent to the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados. The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. Click on images to enlarge.

    Figure 2. The monthly cloud frequency composites for December – February 1996-2002 by 10.7 um temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

    The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.

    Figure 3. A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 um imagery for December – February of 1998 – 2002 for Barbados.

    Dave Watson gave training for RAMSDIS/McIDAS-NT and VISITview at EUMETSAT during March 21-26. RAMSDIS and Visit View are some of the tools to be used internationally in the Virtual Laboratory for Satellite Data Utilization of which EUMETSAT is a part. (See WMO)

    D. Molenar installed and tested the Fortran compilers required to port the Rainfall Autoestimator software to the Costa Rican server in support of the Hurricane Mitch project. Additional system administration support was also supplied to R. Alfaro to assist in this effort. Ownership and Dell warranty support of CIRA PC’s has been successfully transferred to Belize, Costa Rica, Panama, and Guatemala. Transfer requests were submitted for a third time for systems in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras.

  • Miscellaneous

    Meetings/Conferences:
     

    Travelers
    Destination
    Meetings, Conference, Courses
    Funding
    Dates
    Trip Reports
    B. Motta
    B. Zajac
    D. Molenar
    Orlando, FL AMS Annual Meeting
    19th International IIPS Conference and the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS
    VISIT
    VISIT
    GIMPAP
    January 13-18
    Molenar
    Motta
    B. Connell
    D. Hillger
    Lexington, MA NOAA Hyperspectral Workshop
    GIMPAP
    February 12-13
     Hillger
    D. Bikos Norman, OK IST/VISIT Meeting
    PDS Conference
    VISIT
    March
    5-8
     
    J. Knaff New Orleans, LA 56th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
    USWRP
    March 11-15
    x
    J. Weaver Glen Ellyn, IL Severe Weather Workshop
    DuPage University
    March 13 & 14
    D. Watson Darmstadt, 
    Germany
    RAMSDIS/VISITview Training
    EUMETSAT
    March 19-27
    M. DeMaria Washington, DC JCSDA and Team Leaders’ Meetings
    JCSDA
    March 18-22

    Visitors:
     

    Visitors Date of Visit Affiliation RAMMT Contact
    R. Elsberry March 1 Naval Postgraduate School
    Monterey, CA
    M. DeMaria
    S.R. Kalsi March 4 – 28 NOAA-IMD Project
    New Delhi, India
    M. DeMaria, R.Zehr

     

  • World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

    Dave Watson gave training for RAMSDIS/McIDAS-NT and VISITview at EUMETSAT during March 21-26. Materials prepared included examples of data ingest and cases of GOES super rapid scan imagery, regional climatology products, satellite-based precipitation estimates and fire products. Other materials were also gathered for RAMSDIS installation and troubleshooting of ingest as well as the utilization of VISITview for training activities. RAMSDIS and Visitview are some of the tools to be used internationally in the Virtual Laboratory for Satellite Data Utilization of which EUMETSAT is a part. The latest version of the International Virtual Laboratory for Satellite Data Utilization Web Site can be found at http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/wmovl/main.html.

    Dave, Nicholas, and Ignatius

Field Experiments


  • HRD and CAMEX

     Funding for CIRA and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) in Miami was approved by NESDIS for a project to send real-time GOES data to the NOAA WP-3D research aircraft. CIRA’s role is to apply advanced data compression and decompression techniques developed by Forecast Systems Laboratory to the satellite data, and to select the satellite channels and sectors to be sent to the aircraft. The satellite data compression/decompression software will be installed on operational computer systems at the National Hurricane Center in Miami and on the P-3 aircraft. The first real-time test is planned for the 2002 hurricane season.

  • GOES Science Tests

    GOES-12: Nothing to Report This Quarter

    GOES-11: Considerable effort has been expended throughout NESDIS trying to get GOES-11 reactivated in a continuous 5-min imaging mode to support the International H2O Project (IHOP).

  • PACJET

    Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder data from NOAA-15 and -16 were collected during the Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment, which took place from January to March 2002.othing to report this quarter

     

  • Brazil Fire Project

    A correspondence has begun with the two Brazil sites to upgrade their RAMSDIS systems from OS/2 to Windows 2000.

Technology Transfer and Training


  • Web Pages

    Several updates and modifications were implemented on the ORA Intranet Web Page to reflect the changes for the New Year. A new set of information were added and modified to all of the template files, which are used to renew the web page after the archiving process.

    Transfer of ORA Intranet hosting responsibilities were discussed with Nathan Hoffman of ORA infrastructure group. A letter explaining the Intranet’s goals, contents, configuration schema, and maintenance tasks were sent along with a document that contained the master user account and password list. Two ZIP files containing three year’s worth of archived files were also made available for FTP transfer, these files are to be restored onto the new server.

    Web-based versions for all VISIT training sessions can be found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

    The following web pages are still available:

    Hurricane Mitch:   http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/MitchProject/default.htm

    Wakefield Wind Climatology:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/clim/Wakefield/windr.html

  • Satellite Interpretation Discussion

    Bard Zajac created a satellite interpretation discussion entitled “Precipitation over the Eastern United States on 17 December 2001.” This presentation can be found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/picoday/020109/020109.html

    A discussion entitled “GOES Imagery from 8 March 2002 – an intense arctic cold front in the Great Plains” was written by John Weaver and Dan Bikos. This presentation can be found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/picoday/020320/020320.html

    Ray Zehr developed a satellite interpretation discussion on “Hurricanes that Originate from Subtropical Storms.” This presentation can be found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/picoday/020125/020125.html

     

  • RAMSDIS

    Work has begun for the setup of a RAMSDIS system to be used during the International H20 Project, a Southern Plains experiment to be conducted from 13 May – 25 June 2002.

    The McIDAS program MEANWIND, which calculates the vertical shear for a defined area, was modified to work on Reanalysis data, in addition to data from several forecast models.

    A program was written which converts model fields and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in grib format to McIDAS grid format. The program currently works for model output on a Mercator projection, and will be modified for use with model output on an equidistant grid.

    A RAMSDIS system from the Anchorage NWS office was returned.

    An effort to upgrade the Brazil and Tropical RAMSDIS systems is underway. The upgrade will replace the McIDAS-OS/2 software with the McIDAS-NT software and will include the latest version of McIDAS software.

    Autoestimator products from the NESDIS server were made available on the data server at the Instituto Meteorológico Nacional in San José, Costa Rica. Updates to the RAMSDIS/McIDAS-NT menu and ingest command files were made to pull in and display these satellite precipitation products in real time. The instructions for installation and files were then distributed to seven Central American countries (Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama) to allow them to receive the products.

  • RAMSDIS Online

    Several of the real-time loops of GOES-10 imagery normally displayed on RAMSDIS on-line were either faulty or out of date. After several hours of debugging, all products are now fully restored and up-to-date.

    CIRA/RAMMT has been contacted by the State of Florida Division of Emergency Management about fire detection products seen on RAMSDIS On-Line. After acquiring a GOES ground station they are interested in on-site production of some of the fire products in preparation for the upcoming fire season, starting in March. Assistance will be given to help generate products such as PCI three-band image products produced daily at CIRA. A video clip of that product, showing recent fires in several parts of Florida, both in the panhandle and south of Lake Okeechobee is available at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/kfintranet/weeklies/2002/rammt/wk02/fl_visible.htmothing t

  • AWIPS Development/FSL Interaction

    D. Bikos and J. Weaver are working with COMET on the development of the student guide for the April 10-11, 2001 Weather Event Simulator (WES) case.

    B. Zajac, J. Weaver and D. Bikos provided input to WDTB in analysis of the cloud-to-ground lightning for the June 29, 1998 WES case.

    D. Molenar attended the Interactive Symposium on the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) held at the AMS Conference in Orlando on January 13-17, 2002. The Symposium offered an excellent compilation of information regarding current AWIPS application development efforts and future AWIPS directions, and provided important information that will help in planning the evolution of the RAMM Team’s experimental AWIPS capabilities.

  • VISIT

    D. Bikos and J. Weaver completed a new teletraining session called “Cyclogenesis: Analysis using GOES water vapor imagery.” Toby Carlson and Roger Weldon have provided useful feedback (and are co-authors). The session has been beta-tested and will debut on the regular VISIT teletraining schedule in April.

    D. Bikos and J. Weaver are also developing a new teletraining session on applications of GOES derived winds.

    During this quarter 38 VISIT teletraining sessions were delivered; participation by 556 students and 175 NWS offices. (Some offices were multiple participants.) Other new VISIT teletraining sessions include, “Ensemble Predictions Systems” (taught by Peter Manousos of HPC) and “What can you expect from the Eta12”? (Taught by Stephen Jascourt UCAR/COMET)

     

    A training certificate of completion is sent out to participants who have returned evaluations. The above graph shows the total number of certificates issued since VISIT began in April 1999. As of March 1, the total is 6892 certificates.

     

    The above list shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 1, 2002. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web page: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

     

     

     

    After each VISIT teletraining session an e-mail is sent out to the focal points with an evaluation. Here is a portion of the evaluation:

    Rate questions #1-9 on a scale of 1 to 5:

    1 –> strongly disagree
    2 –> disagree
    3 –> indifferent
    4 –> agree
    5 –> strongly agree

    If you rate a question as 1 or 2, please discuss why.

    1) The session was easy to follow and the objectives were met.
    2) The content of the session was appropriate.
    3) Teletraining was an appropriate method for presenting the session.
    4) The graphics contributed well to my understanding.
    5) The instructor provided sufficient interactivity to keep me
    involved in the session and test my learning.
    6) The instructor explained the material clearly.
    7) My knowledge and/or skills increased as a result of this session.
    8) The knowledge and/or skills gained through this session are
    directly applicable to my job
    9) Overall, the session was a good learning experience.

     

     

     

    Below is a graph that summarizes these evaluation questions (from December 2000 through the present):

    The graph shows that the vast majority of respondents answered 4 or 5, meaning they responded very positively to the above 9 questions.


    Web versions of several VISIT sessions can be found at the following addresses:

    Boundary Detection: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries/title.asp

    CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp

    Convective Initiation by Low-Level Boundaries: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/lessons/bndry2/viewmaster.html

    Detecting Boundaries: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

    Elevated Mesoscale Ascent: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ascent/title.asp

    GOES enhancements/color tables in AWIPS: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/istpds/awips/awips_1.html

    Lake-effect snow (student guide, web based session link temporarily on this page): http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp

    Lightning Meteorology I:
    http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

    Mesoscale Analyses and Techniques: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mesoana/title.asp

    NDIC:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ndic/title.asp

    Rapid Scan Operations:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp

    Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp

    QuikSCAT: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qscat/title.asp

  • VISITview

    D. Lindsey began receiving training on the use of the software builder package called VISITview.r

  • Community Outreach

    J. Weaver has been asked to continue his service as the meteorological point-of-contact for the Fort Collins Office of Emergency Management under the new Emergency Manager, Battalion Chief Mike Gress. He has agreed to do so.

  • Publications

    Published:

    To Submitted

    To Accepted

    Connell, B.H., M. DeMaria, J. Sessing, V. Castro Leon, J.F.W. Purdom, 2002: Reconstruction Efforts for Meteorological Offices in Central America in the Wake of Hurricane Mitch.  29th International Symposium Remote Sensing of Environment, Buenos Aires, April 8-11, CD Proceedings, TS-28.1, 4pp.

    Kidder, S.Q., D.W. Hillger, A.J. Mostek, K.J. Schrab, 2001:  Two simple GOES imager products for improved weather analysis and forecasting, National Weather Digest, 25-30.

    Motta, B.C.D. BikosB. Zajac, S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, B. Grant, J. LaDue, N. Junker, K. Schrab, D. Baumgardt, R. Grumm, P. Wolf, J. Weaver, R. Zehr, A. Mostek, 2002: VISIT Integrated Sensor Training: Using AWIPS Satellite Products and Capabilities.  AWIPS Symposium at the AMS Annual Meeting, January 13-17, 2002 in Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J11-J16.

    Mostek, A., S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, D. BikosB. MottaB. ZajacJ. Weaver, K. Schrab, B. Grant, J. LaDue, 2002: Bringing Training to the Forecasters Using VISITView- Review of Program Since 1999. AWIPS Symposium at the AMS Annual Meeting, January 13-17, 2002 in Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J35-J38.

    Pielke, R.A., T.N. Chase, T.G.F. Kittel, J.A. Knaff, and J. Eastman, 2001: Analysis of 200 mb zonal wind for the period
    1958-1997. J. Geophysical Research,106 (D21): 27287-27290.

    Weaver, J.F., J.A. Knaff, D.E. Bikos, G. Wade, J.M. Daniels, 2002:  Satellite observations of a severe supercell
    thunderstorm on 24 July 2000 taken during the GOES-11 Science Test. Weather and Forecasting, 124-138.

    Zajac, B.A.J.F. WeaverD.E. Bikos, 2002:  An Overview of Lightning Training from NWS/VISIT: 1999-2001.  18th Conference on IIPS at the AMS Annual Meeting, January 13-17, 2002 in Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Zajac, B.A., J.F. Weaver, 2002:  Lightning Meteorology I: An Introductory Course on Forecasting with Lightning Data.  AWIPS Symposium at the AMS Annual Meeting, January 13-17, 2002 in Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J220-J225

    Zajac, B.A., J.F. WeaverD.E. Bikos, 2002:  Lightning Training from the Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training: 1999-2001, AWIPS Symposium at the AMS Annual Meeting, January 13-17, 2002 in Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J20-J22.
     

    To Submitted

    Accepted:

    Back to the top

    Bikos, D.E., J.F. Weaver, B.C. Motta, 2002: A satellite perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains Tornado Outbreak within Oklahoma. Weather and Forecasting.

    Campbell, G.G. and J.F.W. Purdom, 2001: Asynchronous stereo height and motion retrieval from satellite observations. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology.

    Chase, T.N., J.A. Knaff, and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2001: Changes in global monsoon circulations: Evidence for a diminishing hydrological cycle? Int. J. Climatol.

    DeMaria, M.R.M. Zehr, J.P. Kossin, J.A. Knaff, 2002:  The Use of GOES Imagery in Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction, 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Demuth, J., K. Brueske, J.A. Knaff, C. Velden, M. DeMaria, 2002:  An Evaluation of CIMSS and CIRA AMSU Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithms.  25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Ellrod, G., B.H. Connell, D.W. Hillger, 2001: Improved detection of airborne volcanic ash using multi-spectral infrared satellite data. J. Geophys. Res.

    Hillger, D.W., J. Clark, 2002:  Principal Component Image Analysis of MODIS for Volcanic Ash – Parts I and II.  Journal of Applied Meteorology.

    Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, 2002:  Estimating the Probability of Rapid Intensification Using the SHIPS Model Output: Some Preliminary Results.  25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Kidder, S.Q., D.W. Hillger, A.J. Mostek, K.J. Schrab, 2001:  Two simple GOES imager products for improved weather analysis and forecasting, National Weather Digest.

    Knaff, J.A., J.P. Kossin, M. DeMaria, 2002:  What are Annular Hurricanes? 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Knaff, J.A., C.S. Velden, 2002:  Examining the Eight-Day Evolution of Upper Level Winds in Hurricane Floyd
    25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Landsea, C.W., J.A. Knaff, 2002:  How much “skill” was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2001 La Nina events? 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Mainelli, M., M. DeMaria, L.K. Shay, 2002:  The Impact of Oceanic Heat Content on Hurricane Intensity Forecasts Using the SHIPS Model. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Marks, Jr., F., G. Kappler, M. DeMaria, 2002:  Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Schubert, W.H., B.D. McNoldy, J. Vigh, S.R. Fulton, R.M. Zehr, 2002:  A Case Study of Tropical Cyclone Merger.  25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Zehr, R.M., 2002:  Vertical Wind Shear Characteristics with Atlantic Hurricanes During 2001.  25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Submitted:

    Back to the top

    Grasso, L.D., 2001:  The dependence of thunderstorm evolution on the initial convective trigger.  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

    Grasso, L.D., 2001: Simulation of a left moving cell following storm splitting. Mon. Wea. Rev.

    Hillger, D.W., G.P. Ellrod, 2002:  Detection of Important Atmospheric and Surface Features by Employing Principal Component Image Transformation of GOES Imagery.  Journal of Applied Meteorology.

    Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, J.M. Gross, 2002:  Statistical, Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived from Climatology and Persistence.  Weather and Forecasting.

    Knaff, J.A., J.P. KossinM. DeMaria:  Annular Hurricanes.  Weather and Forecasting.

    Zehr, R.M., 2002: Three approaches to quantitative observations of environmental vertical wind shear with Hurricane Bertha.  Weather and Forecasting.

  • RAMMT/CIRA Internal Presentations
    Date  Presentor    Topic 
    March 27, 2002 
    S.R. Kalsi IMD Overview of Meteorological Operations at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Descriptions of the Three 1999 Intense Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Infrastructure


  • Systems Administration

    Two new Pentium-III (1.8 GHz) systems were configured to replace the old VISIT workstations. It replaced two Pentium-II (400 MHz) systems.

    RAMM Team Infrastructure resource allocation has been compiled for the 4th quarter of 01. The statistics reflect a large time expenditure on special projects due to the bulk of CIRA Hurricane Mitch work that was completed. The statistics also show more time being allocated to in-house programming and research and development, working towards a goal set in September. Two 400 GB Quantum Snap drives have been purchased, taking advantage of a limited time $1000 per drive rebate offer. The drives will be utilized for AWIPS case study archival and general research data archival. The existing 170 GB Snap drive will be converted to use as a PC disaster recovery backup. Several programs have been developed to reduce the amount of time spent monitoring HP systems for security breaches. The routines regularly scan the system log files and immediately report any unauthorized access or illegal utilization of mail relays. 

  • Hardware/Software

    Efforts were made to install the latest version of the CIMSS Dvorak Technique Analysis software on RAMM HP computers. Library incompatibilities prevented installation, but the previous version of the software was resurrected and installed.

    The Interactive Data Language (IDL) software has been installed at RAMM/CIRA utilizing the newly obtained ORA IDL license. The software is currently being used for rapid analysis of a 7-year tropical cyclone IR data archive compiled at CIRA. With ORA’s help, the license was upgraded to include MPEG animations. Compatibilities prohibited the installation, but a previous version of the software was resurrected and implemented.

     

  • Administration

    The latest version of the GIMPAP plan, which covers the period 2002-2004 was reviewed. Comments were supplied to P. Menzel.

    All RAMM Team members and hourly employees completed the web-based NOAA IT Security Awareness Course.

    Dr. Inger Solheim was hired at CIRA to assist with the USWRP Joint Hurricane Testbed projects. She has a PhD from University of Tromso, Norway, and has considerable experience in image processing and neural network techniques. She will be working part time with RAMM Team for about six months while her spouse is visiting Colorado State University. Support for this project became available when J. Demuth decided to take an internship in Washington D.C. during the spring of 2002.

Miscellaneous


  • Travel
    Team Members
    Destination
    Purpose
    Funding
    Dates
    B. Motta
    B. Zajac
    D. Molenar
    Orlando, FL AMS Annual Meeting
    19th International IIPS Conference and the Interactive Symposium on AWIPS
    VISIT
    VISIT
    GIMPAP

    January 13-18

    B. Connell
    D. Hillger
    Lexington, MA NOAA Hyperspectral Workshop
    GIMPAP

    February 12-13

    D. Bikos Norman, OK IST/VISIT Meeting
    PDS Conference
    VISIT
    March
    5-8
    J. Knaff New Orleans, LA 56th Interdepartmental 
    Hurricane Conference
    USWRP
    March 11-15
    J. Weaver Glen Ellyn, IL Severe Weather Conference
    College of DuPage
    DuPage University
    March 13 & 14
    D. Watson Darmstadt, 
    Germany
    RAMSDIS/VISITview Training
    EUMETSAT
    March 19-27
    M. DeMaria Washington, DC Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimulation and Team Leaders Meetings
    JCSDA 
    March 18-22
  • Acronyms

    List of Acronyms

    Fryer

    AMS:  American Meteorological Society

    AMSU:  Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

    ARAD:  Atmospheric Research and Applications Division

    AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

    CAMEX:  Convection and Moisture Experiment

    CG: Cloud to Ground

    CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

    CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

    COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training

    CONUS: Continental U.S.

    CRAD:  Climate Research and Applications Division

    CSU:  Colorado State University

    EUMETSAT:  European Meteorological Satellite

    FEMA:  Federal Emergency Management Agency

    FTP: File Transfer Protocol

    GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan

    GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

    HRD:  Hurricane Research Division

    IR: Infrared

    LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System

    LES:  Lake Effect Snow

    McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System

    MODIS:  Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

    NASA:  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

    NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research

    NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards

    NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service

    NHC: National Hurricane Center

    NIDS: NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service

    NOAA:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    NWS: National Weather Service

    NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office

    OM:  Office of Meteorology

    ORA:  Office of Research and Applications

    PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment

    POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite

    POP: Product Oversight Panel

    RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team

    RAMS:  Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

    RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System

    RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center

    ROL: RAMSDIS Online

    SAB: Satellite Applications Branch

    SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center

    SOO: Science Operations Officer

    SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation

    STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study

    TPC: Tropical Prediction Center

    USWRP: United States Weather Research Program

    UTC:  Universal Time Coordinated

    VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training

    WMO: World Meteorological Organization

    WV:  Water Vapor