In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone formation probability guidance product, large-scale vertical motion was added as an additional screening parameter, and its affect on the skill of the forecast measured.  The large scale vertical motion field comes from a Q-vector form of the omega equation valid over the entire sphere, which uses the GFS model fields as input.  The omega equation is solved using a vertical normal mode and a spherical harmonic transform.  The inclusion of the omega field does result in a small improvement in the Brier Skill Score (0.0191 to 0.186) for the prediction of tropical cyclogenesis over the entire Atlantic Basin.  However, the results for the 5 subbasins (East Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, Subtropical Atlantic, and the Tropical Atlantic) vary.  Investigation is underway to characterize the environments conducive to the formation of tropical storms as a function of subbasin. (J. Dostalek)

Work on assessing the quality of temperature and moisture retrievals based on satellite data has continued.  M. DeMaria, R. DeMaria, and J. Dostalek participated in a teletraining session demonstrating the capabilities of the NOAA Product Validation System (NPROVS), a software package designed to display and analyze temperature and moisture profiles derived from various satellite retrieval algorithms with collocated radiosonde soundings.  The demonstration was provided by T. Reale, B. Sun, F. Tilley, and M. Petty of NESDIS, and was part of ongoing collaboration between the two groups in using NPROVS to validate satellite-based profiles in the tropics.  Hurricane Ida of 2009 was chosen as an initial case study for validation, as many dropsondes were deployed.  The dropsondes will be used as “ground truth” in the assessment of the skill of the various sounding products, as well as the performance of the GFS fields.  Basic error statistics will be calculated, and the profiles will be used to calculate the maximum potential intensity a cyclone can reach (Bister and Emanuel 1998), as well as to calculate a tropical convective instability parameter based on a simple Lagrangian parcel model (DeMaria 2009).

Bister, M., and K.A. Emanuel, 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 50, 233-240.

DeMaria, M., 2009: A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 68-82.
(J.Dostalek)

A ten-year historical SSMI-based Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product was recieved from NRL, Monterey to investigate the potential predictive capabilities of TPW in the SHIPS and RII frameworks.  In this quarter we have:

• Reprocessed these historical data to a standard format and develop code that will enable the reprocessing of a NESDIS operational TPW product into the same format.
• Provided various storm-relative predictors to be tested as potential predictors in the RII and SHIPS.
• Begun investigating the potential information from these data in the SHIPS intensity forecasting framework.  (J. Knaff, R. Viola, G. DeMaria)

Storm and Direction Relative Principle Components of Tropical Cyclone IR Imagery:Using techniques developed to create storm and direction relative principle components of IR imagery, we began testing these as potential predictors in the RII and for the potential of improving the forecasts of rapid weakening. (J. Knaff)

Rapid Intensity Index (RII):Using the TPW and principle components of IR imagery described above, an experimental version of the RII was tested by J. Kaplan (AOML/HRD).  He found that both TPW and one of the IR PCs improved the ability of RII by a small amount, while not increasing the number of overall predictors.  His presentation can be found at
http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc10/Presentations/Session11/s11-02Kaplan_IHC_finalversion.pptx  (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

Non-landfalling Rapid Weakening Tropical Cyclones: A study was undertaken to develop a simple definition of rapid weakening and determin how often such event occur. It was found that a decrease of intensity of 25 kt or more in 24h is a reasonable definition (Figure 1). Using that definition the climatological and environmental conditions associated with rapid weakening tropical cyclones will be investigated. This study concentrated on the use of Statisical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors and information contained in the archived GOES infrared imagery.   Finally, a strategy was developed to best make use of this information to discriminate these events in the operational setting in a probabalistic manner and ultimately improve tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

Figure 1.  The mean 1, 5, and 10th percentiles of 24-h intensity decrease as a funtion of initial intensity based on 1982-2008 Atlantic best track cases where landfall was not included.

Findings suggest that five factors can be combined into a probablistic forecast method that could discriminate approximately 80% of the rapidly weakening cases while only suffering a 20-30% false alarm rate, based on developmental data (1995-2008).  The five factors and their normalized linear discriminant weight is shown in Figure 2. Results of this study were presented at the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference in early March and can be found at http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc10/Presentations/Session10/s10-05_jknaff.pptx.

Figure 2.  The five factors found to be important for discrimination of rapid weakening events as defined in Figure 1.  The weights are normalized providing information of the strenth and the direction of various factors with respect to rapid weakening.  Note a positive prediction indicated rapid weakening is more likely. 
(J. Knaff)

Work has begun to create simulated ABI images for four tropical cyclone cases (Ana, Fred, Grace, and TD08) that occurred during the 2009 Hurricane season and were viewed by MSG.   The goal of this project, which should be completed next quarter, is to create MSG channel 9 and simulated ABI channel 13 images for these cases and supply them to the Algorithm Working Group for the testing of GOES-R tropical cyclone products.  (J. Knaff)

Storm Relative AMSU imagery added to TC webpage:AMSU 89 GHz imagery is being ingested and displayed on the RAMMB tropical cyclone web page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/index.asp).  Data is also being saved for future satellite research. (J. Knaff)

As part of a continuing collaboration with the Australian BoM, input files, output files, and FORTRAN code that produce the track and intensity error distributions for the Monte Carlo tropical cyclone surface wind probability product run at NHC were provided to M. Foley (BoM).   The information will help Australian BoM with plans to develop a similar product within their operational software framework. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria) 

J. Knaff has been invited to co-chair (with B. Harper) a keynote session on TC surface wind structure, and the related pressure-wind relationships at the upcoming International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones VII that will be held at La Reunion November 15-20 2010.    Coordination with B. Harper and other potential participants has begun. (J. Knaff)

The fourth NCAR/NOAA/CSU tropical cyclone workshop was held 10 February at NCAR and was organized by J. Knaff.  These workshops are organized approximately semi annually to share ongoing research on tropical cyclones at all three institutions.  The next workshop will be held 7 October at CIRA.  (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, B. McNoldy)

Tropical Cyclone Data and Readers Provided:Several datasets that cover the evolution of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and Hurricane Ike (2008) were provided to the U. Miami and NCAR for use in a National Oceanographic Partnership Program project to test the impact of high resolution and experimental satellite-based dataset via data assimilation on tropical cyclone mesoscale modeling.  The partnership includes NRLMRY, CIMSS, CIRA, U. Miami, and AOML.  The RAMMB/CIRA data contribution consisted of AMSU-A raw antenna temperatures, temperature retrievals and gridded analyses on standard atmospheric levels and multi-platform tropical cyclone surface wind analyses. (J. Knaff)

Bill Pichel from NESDIS/STAR/SOCD visited CIRA to discuss an on-going project to use Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for tropical cyclone analysis. The RAMMB portion of this study is to compare SAR imagery and wind retrieval products with satellite data and products that forecasters are more used to using, such as GOES imagery and POES/DMSP products. A web page will be developed for the comparison, and to select cases for more intensive study and possible inclusion in a user’s guide. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

A conference call was held between RAMMB and Irina Gladkova and Michael Grossberg of CUNY to discuss a possible collaborative proposal to NESDIS on forecasting rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. Preliminary analysis of the RAMMB tropical cyclone dataset using advanced classification methods looks promising, and a proposal to the NESDIS/STAR “end of the year” funding opportunity will probably be submitted by CREST. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

COSMIC retrievals were used alone and in conjunction with radiosonde launches to measure the height of the tropopause over the United States.  The first figure shows the tropopause pressure (hPa) determined from both COSMIC retrievals and radiosonde launches from 9 March 2009, using the WMO definition of tropopause height.  The second figure gives the tropopause height as the pressure of the 1.5 PVU surface as determined from 9 March 2009 COSMIC data alone.  For comparison, the final figure shows the tropopause pressure and wind speed from the GFS (average of the 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC analyses).   The measurement of the height of the tropopause is the first step in computing an observationally-based estimate of the speed of the upper-level jet using satellite measurements of ozone.  9 March 2009 was chosen because both a polar jet (northwest United States), and a subtropical jet (central United States) were present (see Fig.3).  (J. Dostalek)

Figure 1.  Pressure of the tropopause (hPa) as determined from the WMO definition applied to the radiosonde launches and COSMIC retrievals of 9 March 2009.

Figure 2.  Tropopause pressure (hPa) as determined by the pressure of the 1.5 quasigeostrophic potential vorticity surface derived from COSMIC retrievals of 9 March 2009.

Figure 3.  Tropopause pressure (solid, hPa) and wind speed (dashed, m s-1) as given by the averaged GFS analyses (00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC).

Using gridded temperature profiles derived from AMSU measurements, along with the assumption of hydrostatic balance and the 50 mb heights from the GFS analysis as a boundary condition, the height field as a function of pressure may be computed.  From there a balance condition (QG, linear, nonlinear) may be assumed to derive a nondivergent estimate of the horizontal wind field, as well as a vertical velocity field through an omega equation.  An example (linear-balance) omega field derived from AMSU data for a developing midlatitude cyclone over the Pacific Ocean is given for 00Z 7 October 2004 (Figure 1).  Also plotted is the 900-500 mb thickness field.  For comparison, a corresponding figure from Martin (2006), for which he used GFS fields and a quasigeostrophic omega, is shown (Figure 2).  The comparison is good, lending confidence to the satellite algorithm.  Ultimately, the vertical wind fields will be used to compute the divergence fields for use in researching the Gulf Stream’s effects on the overlying atmosphere.  This work is part of a joint project with Dudley Chelton of CIOSS.  (J. Dostalek) Reference:Martin, J.E., 2006:  The Role of Shearwise and Transverse Quasigeostrophic Vertical Motions in the Midlatitude Cyclone Life Cycle.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1174-1193.

Figure 1.  700-mb linear-balance omega (dPa s-1) and 900-500 mb thickness (dam) over the Pacific Ocean, 00Z 7 October 2004.  The fields have been computed from AMSU temperature profiles.

Figure 2.  700-mb quasigeostrophic omega (dPa s-1) and 900-500 mb thickness (dam) over the Pacific Ocean, 00Z 7 October 2004.  The fields have been computed from GFS analysis data.  From Martin (2006).

A manuscript entitled “The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery” by Darren Van Cleave, John Dostalek, and Tom Vonder Haar was submitted to the AMS journal Weather and Forecasting.  Work has begun on revising the manuscript to address the changes suggested by the reviewers.  This work is based on Darren Van Cleave’s Master’s Thesis and deals with the relationship among the dynamics, snowfall, and appearance on IR imagery of wintertime midlatitude cyclones over the eastern 2/3 of the United States. (J. Dostalek)

Work is underway to improve the GOES Hail Prediction Product.  Following feedback from the Storm Prediction Center, the algorithm is being adjusted to make hail probability forecasts in the 0-3-hr time period.  The algorithm uses input from the GOES imager along with surface mesoanalysis data, RUC data, and climatology to issue forecasts with every new GOES scan.  The product will once again be tested as part of the GOES-R Proving Ground at the SPC in May and June.  (D. Lindsey)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies is now complete.  Products completed this quarter include monthly large sector composites for October, November and December of 2009. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products is now complete.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for October, November and December of 2009 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for October, November and December of 2009. (C. Combs)

The cloud climatology based on marine stratus depth work with Treena Hartley, Joe Clark and Mel Nordquist  from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service(NWS) office, and Becca Mazur with Cheyenne, WY NWS office is continuing. There have been three telecons between CIRA, Eureka, and Cheyenne this quarter to discuss progress and project needs. Deb Molenar has joined these discussions to provide technical support. (C. Combs)

Eureka data has been processed for May-September 2009. GeoTiffs for 12 UTC have been sent to the Eureka office for classification, and marine stratus composites have been produced for the four periods over 1999-2009.  The additional two years have boosted the number in some of the low-count regimes, but only one additional regime now has enough cases. Regimes for 2000, 2500, and 3000+ were combined to provide more cases in these low count regimes.  Efforts are continuing to place the cloud climatologies into the GFE systems of both Cheyenne and Eureka.  Deb has successfully placed a composite into the AWIPS system at CIRA.  Next test will be placing one onto the Eureka system.  Becca is writing a technical report for this project, with contributions from Mel at Eureka and Cindy at CIRA. (C. Combs)

Work on tuning the snow algorithms using MSG data is still ongoing.  There are still areas of high ice cloud that are incorrectly identified as snow.  A method from the deRuyter de Wildt at al paper for discriminating snow and high ice cloud using a scatter plot has been attempted. Unfortunately, my results are not duplicating those shown in the paper, making it impossible to determine a threshold.  A comparison between the deRuyter de Wildt method with MODIS has been started, to see if there is something MODIS does that will aid with this tough identification. (C. Combs)

Figure 1: Marine stratus composite over the Eureka area at 1200 UTC for July 16-August 15, 1999-2009, with a marine stratus depth between 1251 and 1750 feet. 38 cases.

Figure 2: Marine stratus composite over the Eureka area at 1200 UTC for July 16-August 15, 1999-2009, with a marine stratus depth between 1751 and 2250 feet. 14 cases.

Work on the “Kyrill” case is complete. A manuscript entitled, “Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method” was submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. After a few rounds of review, the paper was accepted for publication as is currently in press. (L. Grasso)

Work on the 27 June 2005 thunderstorm case is 90 % complete. A manuscript entitled, “An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation” was submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. After a few rounds of review, the paper was accepted for publication as is currently in press. (L. Grasso)

The application of this simulation to moisture depth continues, and is explained in more detail below (along with a figure).  (L. Grasso)

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. Isidora Jankov is leading this effort. Results from this work are discussed in a recently prepared manuscript entitled, “An Evaluation of Various WRF-ARW Microphysics Using Simulated GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast”. This manuscript will be submitted for peer-review. (I. Jankov, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, P. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D. Lindsey, and R. Brummer)

Collaboration with Martin Setvak of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute proved successful. Last quarter, paper was written discussing “cold ring” thunderstorms.  RAMS was run with different temperature structures at the tropopause to offer a possible explanation of satellite observed cold ring thunderstorms. This quarter, the manuscript was accepted for publication. (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

We have developed a fruitful collaboration with Wayne MacKenzie at the University of Alabama-Huntsville as a result of the Aviation AWG work. Together we are working on a paper that will focus on GOES-R detection of convective initiation and moisture depth through the use of channel differences (see the figure below).  The brightness temperature difference between 10.35 and 12.3 µm is proportional to moisture depth, so one might use this difference to anticipate where convective clouds may form.  Additionally, we have acquired a second year of AWG funds to provide additional synthetic GOES-R data to Wayne and his group.  (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

Figure.  Simulated 10.35-12.3 µm image from the 27 June 2005 case over eastern Wyoming, along with surface wind vectors.  Note that positive differences correspond to regions of surface convergence.  One may use the brightness temperature difference field to predict where convective clouds are likely to form.  This idea is potentially a useful application of GOES-R ABI data. 

In order to assess the production of a synthetic-Green band (and resulting RGB images) for ABI, an analysis of color is necessary.  The transformation of RGB imagery into another color space is helpful, such as the Hue, Saturation, and Intensity transformation of Red, Green, and Blue images.  The Hue image alone is useful in determining the basic attribute that allows color to be classified.  In the accompanying figure, RGB (true-color) images in the top row are processed into the Hue images in the bottom row.  Without any Rayleigh-correction, the basic color of either RGB image is blue, due to molecular scatting which gives preference to blue, for the same reason that sky is blue.  (Non-vegetated or bare land areas have a red Hue, a result that the viewer might not immediately guess.) (D. Hillger)

However, the more interesting result is the difference between the Hue image resulting from the RGB image that used a computer-simulated Green band (on the left) and the Hue image resulting from the RGB image that used a look-up-table synthesized Green band (on the right).  The shift towards greener hues for many pixels can be seen in the RGB images as well, but is more clearly indicated when comparing the Hue images, which amplify the color differences.  This shift towards green agrees with the green tint seen in other images created using the current look-up-table process for synthesizing Green and RGB images, as well as in the statistics gathered on the RGB component images. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: RGB images (on top) and Hue images (on bottom) for computer-simulated Green band (on the left) and look-up-table synthesized Green band (on the right).  The Hue images emphasize the basic color in the image, amplifying slight differences that otherwise are hard to visualize.

A much more successful attempt at adding a realistic smoke plume to simulated ABI imagery has been accomplished.  The resulting image is shown in the attached figure.  To create this image, smoke extinction was computed for an assumed plume depth of 2 km.  Optical properties (extinction values) for the smoke were spectrally dependent, but single-scattering albedos, and asymmetry factors were constant for all bands.  The shape of the smoke plume was taken from MODIS imagery for this day, with that smoke image providing a scaling factor ranging from no smoke to full smoke.  In further comparisons of the ABI simulations with actual smoke images for this case, the reflectivity values of the Red, Green and Blue bands are close to the values seen in MODIS images.  The maximum reflectances are all smaller, but the reflectances decrease in the same color order for both, with the largest reflectances in the Blue band and the smallest reflectances in the Near-IR bands. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: Improved RGB (true-color) smoke image for the 23 October 2007 Southern California wild fire event.  A Rayleigh correction has been applied to the image, to reduce atmospheric scattering and the blue bias seen in un-corrected RGB images.

A test case of CIRA fog/stratus regime climatologies over Eureka CA, have been successful converted to AWIPS display format.  Efforts are underway to complete conversion of the entire 10 years worth of climatology data for use at the Eureka CA NWS Forecast Office during for summer 2010 utilization.  (D. Molenar)

Software to implement AWIPS modifications for ingest and display of the CIRA Orographic Rain Index product was successfully installed on the NWS Western Region HQ AWIPS server, and at the Eureka, CA FO.  (D. Molenar)

Three RAMM Branch members traveled to College Park, Maryland to participate in the STAR external review. One oral presentation and 5 posters were presented. (M. DeMaria, D. Lindsey, D. Hillger)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

12 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 24 teletraining signups, 62 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

           
Registrations:  96

            Completions:  79

LMS totals from January 2005 through March 26, 2010:

Registrations:  2622

Completions: 1371

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New training session:

• Lightning mapping array (total lightning) by Geoffrey Stano (ENSCO).  This session will be made available as a web-based audio playback training session available via the LMS.

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Water vapor imagery analysis for severe thunderstorm forecasting  (Dan Bikos).  Expected delivery – spring 2010.
• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) (Dan Bikos).
• The use of GOES satellite imagery with all other available datasets to analyze and forecast severe weather associated with the Dryline (Jeff Braun).
• Update existing training modules on NHC track and intensity models to include Pacific region and look into adding content /references from Arlene Lang’s Tropical textbook (COMET).
• GIMPAP sponsored winter weather research (Henry’s Rule), see note below under research.  A training module based on this research will be delivered in 2010.

Research:

• J. Braun completed work on paper with Russ Schumacher (lead author), Dan Lindsey, Andrea Schumacher, Steve Miller and Julie Demuth (2010):  “Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Weather Information During the 22 May, 2008 Weld County Tornado.” Weather and Forecasting.  Currently inthe review process.  
• J. Braun and D. Bikos are collaborating with J. Dostalek in ongoing research regarding analysis of satellite imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  J. Braun is currently working on a paper to be submitted to the National Weather Association (NWA) that will compare and contrast and update the idea of the original paper introduced some 30 years ago.
• Discussion continues on “Quantitative Northeast Pacific Cyclone Analysis…” as well as “COSMIC/Ozone Data Analysis.” Both topics are being developed for future paper/VISIT session consideration.

Collaboration:

D. Bikos collaborated with the Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) in Norman, OK and Jonathan Finch (NWS Dodge City, KS) to assist in the development of an AWOC winter weather course on shallow cold air masses.  The training will be delivered to NWS forecast offices.  A journal article is also planned from this research.

J. Braun and D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service. 

Publications:

•  D. Bikos collaborated with Jonathan Finch (NWS Dodge City, KS) to publish a paper titled “A Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell over Colorado and Wyoming, 22 May 2008”.  The manuscript has recently been accepted in the Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology.
• Geerts, B., T. Andretta, S. Luberda, J. Vogt, Y. Wang, L. D. Oolman, J. Finch, and D. Bikos, 2009: A case study of a long-lived tornadic mesocyclone in a low-CAPE complex-terrain environment. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 4 (3), 1-29.
• J. Braun completed work on paper with Russ Schumacher(lead author), Dan Lindsey, Andrea Schumacher, Steve Miller and Julie Demuth (2010):  “Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Weather Information During the 22 May, 2008 Weld County Tornado.” Weather and Forecasting.  Currently in the review process.

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/) – Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training worlds.  The blog is now averaging 65 to 70 views per day.  A new category introduced recently concerns CIRA’s role in GOES-R Proving Ground information and products. 

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 26, 2010.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

Meetings and Calls

VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on February 2 and 8, and March 10.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participates in the COMET monthly satellite call to keep informed of training efforts there.

Miscellaneous

VISIT activities were summarized for the past year and the plans for the next year were included in the new VISIT proposal (July 1, 2010 – June 30, 2011).

New SHyMet For Forecasters training course:  released January 2010.  It consisted of 6 core courses and 2 optional courses
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp :

The new Development Plan includes 6 core modules plus two optional modules:

1. Introduction to remote sensing for hydrology (NWS FDTB)
2. Interpreting Satellite Signatures (CIMSS)
3. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones: Dvorak Technique (RAMMB/CIRA)
4. Aviation Hazards (CIRA)
5. Water vapor channels (CIMSS)
6. GOES-R 101 (CIRA)

Optional modules:

7. Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (CIRA)
8. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 1)  (CIRA)

During the past quarter, web pages and student guides were finalized for the SHyMet for Forecasters course (D. Bikos and J. Braun).

• Continuing development of the “Volcanic Ash” training session for VISIT/SHyMet including extensive coordination with Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD) (J. Braun).  It has now been split into 2 sessions (Part 1 and Part 2).
• Continuing development of Satellite cloud climatology training session (B. Connell and D. Bikos).

CIRA/VISIT Registered (January 1 through March 29, 2010):
16 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA
4 individuals have completed the course this quarter.

SHyMet Forecaster- NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual class/session breakdown January 1 through March 29, 2010 (for “online” training only). 

41 individual registrations for SHyMet Forecaster Classes (Since January 2010)
23 individual completions for SHyMet Forecaster Classes (23/41 = 56%)

Individual Class SHyMet Forecasters Metrics – Number Registered through LMS:

• Intro to Remote Sensing for Hydrologists:  7 have registered through the LMS this quarter.
• Aviation Hazards…:12 have registered through the LMS this quarter.
• GOES-R 101 …:3 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter.
• Satellite Apps for Tropical Cyclones (Dvorak): 5 have registered through the LMS this quarter.
• Water Vapor Channels: 9 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter.
• Interpreting Satellite Signatures: 5 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter.

SHyMet Intern course
The SHyMet Intern course continues to be offered online.  It consists of 9 modules
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp ). 

SHyMet Intern Metrics:
CIRA/VISIT Registered:
21  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (January-March 2010) for the SHyMet Intern Course (228 total for April 2006 through March 29, 2010)  7 Participants completed the course this quarter.

2 Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course. (27 total for April 2006 – March 29, 2010)

SHyMet Intern – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Intern individual class/session breakdown through
March 29, 2010 (for “online” training only).

• 171 registered for individual SHyMet Intern  modules for 2nd Quarter 2010
• 150 completed SHyMet Intern modules for 2nd Quarter 2010 with an 88% completion rate (150/171 = 88%)
• 3048 total registrations for individual SHyMet modules (for the period April 2006 – March 29, 2010)

Individual Class SHyMet Intern Metrics – Number Registered through LMS:

• Orientation:  24 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (412 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).
• GOES Intro:  21 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (365 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).
• GOES Channel Selection…:  22 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (390 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).
• POES:  22 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (338 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).
• GOES Sounder: 22 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (286 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).
• High Density Winds:  14 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (271 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).
• Cyclogenesis:  17 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (286 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).
• Severe Weather:  13 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (336 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).
• Tropical Cyclones:  16 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (362 total for period April 1, 2006 – March 29, 2010).

Progress on new Tropical SHyMet training course:
A number of new training modules with a Tropical theme have been developed over the last year with some being completed or updated this Spring 2010.  The SHyMet team will organize the content into a Tropical SHyMet series and offer it as a course during 2010.
The modules proposed for Tropical SHyMet include:

• Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics.
• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC
• Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique
• ASCAT Winds

Progress on new SHyMet for Hydrologists training course:
The SHyMet Remote Sensing for Hydrology course is beginning to take shape.
As of the February 2010 meeting, the SHyMet team is looking at five areas of focus:
Background:
1) Satellite Applications of QPE/QPF
2) Summary of Hydrology needs with respect to Remote Sensing (including aspects of soil moisture, flooding, land use, vegetation coverage, and watershed characteristics
3) National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) snow melt assessment process
Examples and Real time applications
4) Feature ID
5) Ice and Snow – How to detect it and use it in the hydrology process
Further work necessitates working closely with the Hydrologist at NOAA/ NWS/ OCWWS Training Division in Boulder, forecasters at the River Forecast Centers (RFC) and researchers at NOHRSC .

Meetings and Calls

• VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on February 2 and 8, and March 10.
• A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participated in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.
• A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participates in the COMET monthly satellite call to keep informed of training efforts there.

Miscellaneous
SHyMet activities were summarized for the past year and the plans for the next year were included in the new SHyMet proposal (July 1, 2010 – June 30, 2011.

Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for January, February, and March 2010) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, NWS Training Division, and the NWS International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Barbados, Bahamas, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Nicaragua, Honduras, Panamá, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.  In March, We also had trainers listening in from the United Kingdom (7 PM their time), the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia (6AM their time), as well as participants in Boulder, Colorado attending the WMO Panel of Experts in Education.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with an average of 22 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison from the NWS International Desk at NCEP started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  Discussions included feature identification in the imagery:  a gust front episode in Argentina, turbulence over Central America, the eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the Island of Montserrat, and unusual clouds forming offshore Chile.  There was also lively discussion on weather patterns that indicated the end to El Niño conditions and the beginning of a La Niña pattern. (B. Connell)

During the dry months, Barbados has been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.

Sharing of Imagery and Products

GOES-12 imagery for December 2009 through early January 2010 have been processed for the Regional Training Centers (RTC) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  We have had a break in the usual processing because of a change in ground station hardware.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for December (1996-2009), January and February (1997-2009, 2010 coming soon) by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1. (Click on figures to enlarge.)

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for December 1996-2009 January and February 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December (1998-2010), January and February (1999-2009, 2010 coming soon) for Barbados is shown in Figure 2. 

Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December 1998-2010, January and February 1999-2009 for Barbados.

Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can now be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). 
Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ 
(B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

Possible Mis-Assigned Times for MTSAT-1R Images on NESDIS Server: When a problem was noted in combined day-night visible/IR image products generated from full-disk MTSAT-1R data, the source of the problem was investigated.  After hours of testing, it is speculated that full-disk MTSAT-1R images have mis-assigned times by as much as 15 minutes.  The attached figure shows day-night terminator gaps, both evening and morning respectively.  In order to equalize these day-night gaps, the times on the images were shifting by both 15 and 30 minutes, with the 15 minute shift appearing to be the better (than either no shift or a 30 minute shift), in order to equalize the day-night gaps.  Those in charge of the MTSAT-1R server will be contacted about this issue, to see if the times are mis-assigned from the original source of the MTSAT-1R data.  (At this writing, it’s uncertain what the actual image times should be.)  In comparison, this problem does not occur with either GOES or Meteosat data from NESDIS servers.  (D. Hillger, J. Knaff)

Figure 2: Evidence for mis-assigned times on MTSAT-1R full-disk images, by as much as 15 minutes from the specified times of the images.

Software, display, monitoring and archive procedures were developed for GOES-15 checkout.   Attempts to ingest test data indicated that there were problems with the SDI ingest software.  SSEC was notified of this, and ingest of test data was successful after software patches were installed. (D. Molenar)

The NOAA portion of the GOES-14 Post Launch Testing started on 30 November and continued through 4 January 2010.  Various satellite scanning schedules were called each day of the test.  The Science Test was co-led by Tim Schmit at NESDIS/ASPB and coordinated by a Science Team at CIRA, CIMSS, and NASA/MSFC.  Daily schedules and numerous preliminary results were posted almost daily on the GOES-14 Science Test page http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/.  With the completion of the data collection phase, the analysis phase continues, which will lead to the production of a NOAA Technical Report, compiling and summarizing the results of all the various tests that were accomplished.  Some of the highlights of the Science Test have been featured on the NOAA/NESDIS website http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/, particularly the east-coast snowstorm, and on the NESDIS/STAR website http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/index.php.  Next, with the launch of GOES-P/15 (likely in the next few months) another Science Test will be conducted about 5 months after that launch.  Stay tuned.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey)

Figure 1: For an animation of GOES-14 1-minute interval rapid-scan visible images of the record-setting East Coast winter storm on 18-19 December 2009 see http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/svr_vis/eastcoast_snowstorm/ch1loop.asp. (Animation provided by Dan Lindsey, NOAA/STAR).

With the end of the GOES-14 Science Test one month ago, it’s time to start gathering input for the NOAA Technical Report that will be produced.  A call has been sent out for designated people to gather and compile information for the Technical Report from each sub-group that participated in the Science Test, such as CIRA, CIMSS, NASA/MSFC, and the participating scientists in the DC area.  The deadline to hear from those who will contribute compiled information is 12 February, and the tentative deadline for the compiled input is 15 March.  That will allow the editors, D. Hillger and T. Schmit, time to put all the contributions into a unified whole that will be distributed as a PDF via CD and on the Web.  Hyperlinks within the document can be used to show animations.  (D. Hillger)

After a delay in analysis due to software issues that required some reprogramming, an extensive analysis of the noise levels and detector-to-detector striping for the GOES-14 Imager and Sounder were accomplished.  Figure 1 gives the GOES Imager noise levels in temperature units, for GOES-8 through GOES-14.  GOES-14 values compare well to those from GOES-13, which were improved due to a change in spacecraft design with the GOES-N (GOES-13+) series.  The noise levels also compared well with those computed by CIMSS (as provided by Mat Gunshor, not shown).  Noise levels for the GOES-14 Sounder were also computed and likewise compared favorably to values from both GOES-13 and those computed by CIMSS.  Detector-to-detector striping for the GOES-14 Imager, as shown in Figure 2, was found to be much larger than the noise in many of the bands, with similar results for the GOES-14 Sounder.  Striping is caused by the fact that there is more than one detector for each Imager and Sounder band.  The data for this analysis was captured during special limb/space-view Sounder scans and half-hourly full-disk images taken during the GOES-14 Science Test in December 2009.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: GOES Imager noise levels for the last seven (7) GOES Imagers.  The current additions to the table are the bolded values for GOES-14, which compare well to GOES-13, the first of the GOES-N series, which have lower noise due to changes in the spacecraft design.  The missing (hyphenated) values are due to a change from band-5 to band-6 between GOES-11 and GOES-12.

Figure 2: GOES-14 Imager striping analysis, compared to the noise levels for GOES-14.  Note that the striping is much larger than the noise for all bands, probably a result of the lower noise levels with GOES-14, causing striping to become more apparent.

Although the data collection phase of the GOES-14 Science Test has just been completed, the Post Launch Testing (PLT) for the next GOES, GOES-P, will start shortly after launch, currently scheduled for 1 March 2010, after which it will becomes GOES-15.  As with GOES-14, the Science portion of the PLT will occur 5 weeks after launch, during which various satellite scanning schedules will be called, in order to test many aspects of the satellite’s qualities and capabilities.  The Science Tests are co-led by Tim Schmit at NESDIS/ASPB and coordinated by a Science Team at CIRA, CIMSS, NASA/MSFC, and others.  For information stay tuned to the GOES-P Science Test page http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/.  (D. Hillger)

With the launch of GOES-P on 4 March 2010, the GOES-P NOAA Science Test will likely occur in August 2010, approximately 5 months after the launch.  GOES-P will be renamed GOES-15 when it reaches geostationary orbit at 89.5°W after about 12 days.  The time between launch and the NOAA Science Test will consist of NASA Post Launch Testing (PLT).  Within the PLT time, the first Imager and Sounder data will be sent down in GVAR format.  With the new GVAR format already in place for GOES-14, and no other significant instrument or data changes, the Science Testing of GOES-P should be mostly a repeat of the testing that took place with GOES-14, except that the August timing may mean more interesting weather than the December timing of the Science Tests for GOES-13 and 14.   The GOES Science Tests are co-led by T. Schmit at NESDIS/ASPB and D. Hillger at NESDIS/RAMMB, and assisted by a Science Team at CIRA, CIMSS, NASA/MSFC, and others.  For information stay tuned to the GOES-P Science Test page http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/.  GOES-P is the last of the current GOES series.  Since there is no GOES-Q, the next in the GOES line will be GOES-R, to be launched in 2015!  (D. Hillger)

GOES-P reached geosynchronous checkout orbit at 89.5 degrees west longitude on 16 March 2010 and was renamed GOES-15.  The first full-disk visible and IR images from GOES-15 have been scheduled.  Those will occur on 5 April and 26 April 2010, respectively.  Prior to those images, some small test images will be sent in GVAR format, to ready ground systems.  Engineering tests will continue until the start of the GOES-15 Science Test, which is now scheduled for 7 August 2010, and will continue for 5 weeks.  For further information stay tuned to the GOES-15 Science Test page http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/.  (D. Hillger)

New software, display, monitoring and archive procedures were developed for the real-time ingest of GOES-E & GOES-W after CIRA Groundsystem hardware failure.  Efforts are underway to transition this responsibility back to Groundsystem control. (D. Molenar)

GOES E/W RAMSDIS Online problems were fixed.  The problems were caused by Windows and Linux incompatibilities after a Windows Server OS upgrade. (D. Molenar)

Transition of RAMSDIS Online data processing from individual workstation processing to single server batch processing is complete. (D. Molenar)

A workstation has been configured for AWIPS II implementation at RAMMB/CIRA.  Hardware to match the NWS FO new AWIPS II workstations is being procured. (D. Molenar)

Hardware cost/performance evaluation for 2010 IT Refresh is complete;  procurement specs have been submitted to STAR. (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2009: Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 48:10, 2069-2085.

Geerts, B., T. Andretta, S. Luberda, J. Vogt, Y. Wang, L. D. Oolman, J. Finch, and D. Bikos, 2009: A case study of a long-lived tornadic mesocyclone in a low-CAPE complex-terrain environment. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 4 (3), 1-29.

Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2010: A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and east Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 220-241.

• Nonrefereed

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2010:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Finch, J., and D. Bikos, 2010: A Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell over Colorado and Wyoming, 22 May 2008, Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2010: An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation. International Journal of Remote Sensing. In press.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria, 2010:  Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms. International Journal of Remote Sensing.  In press.

Knaff, J.A., D. P. Brown, J. Courtney, G. M. Gallina, J. L. Beven II, 2010:   An Evaluation of Dvorak Technique-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates. Weather and Forecasting.

Lindsey, D.T, S. Miller, L.D. Grasso, 2010: The impacts of the 9 April 2009 dust and smoke on convection. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. In press.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, P. Novak, P.K. Wang, M. Radova, J. Kerkmann, L.D. Grasso, S. Su, R.M. Rabin, J. Stastka, and Z. Charvat, 2010: Satellite-observed cold-ring-shaped features atop deep convective clouds. Atmospheric Research. In press.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2010:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

Zupanski, D., M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2010: Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method.  International Journal of Remote Sensing.  In press.

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2010:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Lazzara, M.A., S.A. Ackerman, D.W. Hillger, 2010: Detecting Fog over Antarctia from Satellite. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Schumacher, R.S., D.T. Lindsey, A.B. Schumacher, J. Braun, S.D. Miller, J.L. Demuth, 2010. Multidisciplinary analysis of an Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Warnings. Weather and Forecasting.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2010: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

Zupanski, D., 2010: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Zupanski, M., 2010: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

• NonRefereed

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, R. Brummer, and R. DeMaria, 2010: Synthetic GOES-R Imagery of Agricultural Burning and Forest Wildfires. AMSs 29th Conference on Agriculture and Forest Meteorology: 2-6 August, Keystone, Colorado.

Awards:

Mark DeMaria and John Knaff – Bronze Medal Recipients National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service. For developing, implementing, and conducting outreach for new National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probability products.

Presentations:

The following presentations were given at the 64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Savannah, GA, 28 February – 4 March, 2010:

• Advanced Applications of Monte Carlo Wind Probability Model: A Year 1 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update by M. DeMaria, S. Kidder, R. DeMaria, A.S Schumacher, D. Brown, M. Brennan, R. Knabb, P. Santos, and D. Sharp;
• Rapid Weakening of Non-Landfalling Atlantic Tropical Cyclones by J.A. Knaff and M. DeMaria;
• The NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product: An Overview of Past Performance and Future Plans by A.S. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and D. Brown

A briefing on HFIP research was provided on March 24 at the weekly meetings of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) hurricane modeling group. The presentation described research to validate the ocean part of the coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model by comparison of Oceanic Heat Content from the forecasts to retrievals from satellite altimetry. Preliminary results show that ocean model is performing well. (M. DeMaria, R. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

M. DeMaria gave an invited presentation entitled “Satellite Applications to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting” at the NCAR Hurricane Workshop in Boulder, CO, Feb. 22-23rd. Other invited speakers included Rick Anthes, Kerry Emanuel, Bill Read and Peter Webster. The workshop was held in conjunction with the annual Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model tutorial..

The fourth NCAR/NOAA/CSU tropical cyclone workshop was held 10 February at NCAR and was organized by J. Knaff.  These workshops are organized approximately semi annually to share ongoing research on tropical cyclones at all three institutions. Presentations were given by J. Knaff – Rapidly weakening of non-landfalling hurricanes; K. Musgrave – Impact of vortex structure on tropical cyclone response to diabatic heating; and M. DeMaria – .Incorporating Ensemble Information into National Hurricane Center Wind Speed Probability Products.

D. Lindsey traveled to Atlanta, GA, for the annual AMS Meeting January 17-21, 2010, and gave a presentation to the Aerosol-Cloud-Climate symposium entitled “The Effect of Smoke on Pyrocumulonimbus: A Satellite Perspective,” and a poster to the NPOESS/GOES-R symposium entitled “Development of a Statistical Hail Prediction Product for the GOES-R Proving Ground (and other GOES-R Products).”  (D. Lindsey)

Gurka J., M. DeMaria, S. Goodman, and T. Schmit 2010: Preparing for Improved Monitoring of Tropical Cyclones in the GOES-R Proving Ground.  Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 1-4 March 2010, Savannah, Ga.

Schumacher A.S, M. DeMaria, J.A.Knaff, and D. Brown, 2010:  The NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product: An Overview of Past Performance and Future Plans. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 1-4 March 2010, Savannah, Ga.

Posters:

From the STAR Review, 9-11 March in Hyattsville, MD

M. DeMaria – Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Using Satellite Data

M. DeMaria – Science Support for VISIT and ShyMet Training: 

D. Hillger – Real-time Monitoring of Volcanic Ash from Mt Redoubt (using Principal Component Imagery)

D. Hillger – Proxy Datasets in Support of GOES-R Algorithm Development

J. Knaff – Multi-platform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis for Tropical Cyclones

D. Lindsey – Combining GOES Observations with Other Data to Improve Severe Weather Forecasts.

D. Molenar –  Science Support for Proving Ground Efforts

Wayne MacKenzie (U. of Alabama-Huntsville) visited RAMMB on March 25.  He is currently working on a convective initiation algorithm for the GOES-R AWG, and therefore is involved in common severe weather research to that at RAMMB.  Ideas for future collaboration were discussed.  A manuscript will be prepared that will discuss results from out convective initiation and moisture depth collaboration. (D. Lindsey and L. Grasso)

Soyoung Lee and EunHa Sohn, from the Korean National Meteorological Satellite Center, visited CIRA from January 15 through the end of February.  B. Connell took the opportunity to talk with Soyoung and EunHa about VISIT and SHyMet training activities as well as International Focus Group and Virtual Laboratory activities.  The Korean visitors also attended daily RAMM satellite weather discussions. (B. Connell)

Gavin Roy, a prospective new graduate student with Tom Vonder Haar visited CIRA to discuss potential research projects for his M.S. thesis. An overview of RAMMB projects, as well as other aspects of CIRA were discussed. (M. DeMaria)

Bill Pichel from NESDIS/STAR/SOCD visited CIRA the week of February 5 to discuss an on-going project to use SAR data for tropical cyclone analysis. The RAMMB portion of this study is to compare SAR imagery and wind retrieval products with satellite data and products that forecasters are more used to using, such as GOES imagery and POES/DMSP products. A web page will be developed for the comparison, and to select cases for more intensive study and for possible inclusion in a user’s guide.(J. Knaff and M. DeMaria)

Andrés Aluja Schunemann, José Humberto Loria Arcila, and M.V.Z. Alfredo F.J. Dajer Abimerhi from Autonomous University of Yucatan (UADY) in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico visited CIRA on January 27th.  The purpose of their visit was to discuss research, products, and training related to hurricane prediction and preparedness.  The UADY representatives expressed an interest in utilizing CIRA products and participating in the monthly international weather briefings led by the WMO Virtual Laboratory Focus Group of the Americas and the Caribbean.  Their long-term goal is to build a degree program at UADY focusing on hurricane prediction and preparedness so that it can help local communities and other tropical countries prepare for and respond to natural disasters. (B. Connell)

Collaboration continues with:

1) Yi Jin at NRL: This quarter I have been making synthetic GOES-12 imagery of a COAMPS model simulation of hurricane Hanna as part of the HFIP project. An abstract was submitted to the AMS’s 29 conference on Tropical Meteorology to be held in May 2010 in Tucson, Arizona. (L. Grasso)

2) Huiya Chuang and Vijay at NOAA/NCEP/EMC: I’ll be helping both of them produce synthetic imagery of operational models. This work will be formalized in a pending teleconference that will be led by Mark DeMaria. (L. Grasso)

3) Russell Schneider, Chief, SPC science support branch: I have finalized my plans to visit SPC during the last week of May 2010 to make synthetic imagery of their operational models. This is being funded by the GOES-R visiting scientist funds. (L. Grasso)

D. Molenar participated in the CIRA Annual Review process for H. Gosden, D. Watson, and K. Micke.

D. Hillger attended several of the lectures offered in the 2010 Professional Development Institute, an annual opportunity for CSU faculty and staff to both present and participate in each other’s areas of expertise. Particular highlights included lectures on using PowerPoint more effectively, teaching/learning principles in general, searching through electronic databases available at the library, personal computer security, and the benefits of healthy lifestyles. (D. Hillger)