Updated Atlantic SHIPS diagnostic files that contain total precipitable water, IR principle components and lightning data were provide to J. Kaplan. This was a June deliverable for our joint GOES-R risk reduction proposal with CIMSS and AOML to improve the hurricane Rapid Intensification Index with multiplatform satellite data and proxies. (J. Knaff)
Code to ingest NESDIS Total Precipitable Water (TPW) generated at NSOF (via ftp://dds.nesdis.noaa.gov in hdf-eos format), decode that data, interpolate those data to regularly spaced lat/lon grids and archive those data in a simple ASCII format has been implemented. These codes are run at six-hourly intervals producing two gridded products (Atlantic and East Pacific), and then saving the raw hdf-eos file. There are plans to use these data at NHC in experimental hurricane intensity products during the upcoming hurricane seasons in support of ongoing Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) work. This same code will eventually be ported to JHT workstations, alleviating the need for local CIRA ingest. (J. Knaff, R. Viola)
A 2008-2009 verification of the Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) vs H* wind analyses have been completed. The verification errors and biases for all cases are shown in Figure 1. (J. Knaff)
Figure 1. Verification of all MTCSWA cases vs. the coincident H*Wind analysis. MAEs [m/s] are shown on the top and biases [m/s] are shown on the bottom.
An objective tropical cyclone warning scheme developed previously was expanded to include guidance for tropical storm watches and warnings and Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR) issued by the Department of Defense. Monte Carlo wind speed probability thresholds were determined that best match NHC hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings from 2004-2008. A similar approach was used for TCCOR issuance data from 1995-2009, and preliminary MCWSP thresholds were developed that correspond with the timing of TCCOR 1-4. This work was presented at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in Tucson, AZ, May 10-14 2010. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)
Software written at CIRA has been running on the NCEP IBM to process AMSU data in BUFR format for use in tropical cyclone intensity fixes and structure analysis. The software currently processes data from the AMSU instruments aboard NOAA-15, -16, and -18. The program is being updated to include data from recently launched satellites. Now included (in the preliminary code) are the AMSU data from NOAA-19 and MetOp-2. AMSU data from the Aqua satellite will also be added. Once the preliminary code is complete at CIRA, it will be transferred to the NCEP IBM for final testing and then to operations. (J. Dostalek)
Lightning information from the World Wide Lightning Location Network and Total Precipitable Water (TPW) data from NESDIS was tested for its ability to improve tropical cyclone intensity forecasts in the SHIPS forecast model. Resulting improvements shown in Fig 2 were presented at the AMS 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)
Figure 2. The percent improvement that is possible in the SHIPS model using lightning-based predictors (top) and TPW-based predictors (bottom).
Google Earth is being tested for its ability to loop and display real-time imagery of various bit depth.Users have the ability to zoom in on interesting features in the lower resolution images to see the highest resolution data possible. Real-time GOES productshave been created and are available to the public at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/google_earth/ and EUMETSAT based Dust and Air Mass products are available to NHC for the GOES-R Proving Ground Demonstration Project. Note the RGB Dust and Air Mass products were initially developed at EUMETSAT and require 24-bit image depth, of which current 8-bit RAMSDIS display systems are not capable. An example of the 24-bit Dust product, in this display framework, which can be replicated using GOES-R data, is shown in Figure 3. (J. Knaff, K. Micke)
Figure 3. Example of the EUMETSAT 24-bit Dust Product displayed in Google Earth. Note products loop in Google Earth and that the image resolution is a function of viewing height.
C. Landsea (the SOO at NHC) informed CIRA/RAMMB and BoM that the wind pressure relationship described in Courtney and Knaff (2009) will be used as guidance for assignment of MSLP in the model bogus produced by Hurricane Specialists and used to run global and regional/specialized models. Previous studies have shown 1) that improved MSLP estimates alone improve tropical cyclone tracks, 2) the Courtney and Knaff (2009) wind pressure relationship provides significantly improved MSLP estimate vs. current operational practices (i.e. Dvorak look-up tables). (J. Knaff)
J. Knaff helped prepare Blevens Middle School Science Olympians on the general topic of Weather. These students competed in the State (CO) competition in early May. (J. Knaff, J. Braun)
Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) data sets for two West Pacific Typhoons that occurred during TCS2008 (Tropical Cyclone Structure) field experiment were provided to J. Hawkins (NRLMRY). A student J. Cossuth will compare these fields with those produced by H*Wind as well as examine the use of these wind fields directly in H*wind. (J. Knaff)
Several upgrades to NHC’s operational SHIPS and LGEM intensity models were implemented for the 2010 hurricane season. The Monte Carlo wind speed probability program was also upgraded. (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)
Work continues on the GOES hail probability product. As of April 1, 2010, it was running experimentally in real-time and the data continues to be sent to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for evaluation. During the SPC’s Spring Experiment and the GOES-R Proving Ground, this product was evaluated by forecasters. The image below shows an example of how the product appears in the SPC’s NAWIPS system, with the observed hail reported denoted by ‘a’. (D. Lindsey)
Figure. An example of the GOES Hail Probability Product from 16 June 2010. The forecast (colors and contours) is valid from 21-00 UTC, and the observed hail reports from 18-00 UTC are denoted by ‘a’. Only a couple of the reports in Montana occurred prior to 21 UTC.
Combining measurements from radiosondes, COSMIC, GOES, and OMI, the nondivergent wind field can be estimated at the tropopause (i.e. jet-stream level). The basis of the technique is the relationship between lower-stratospheric ozone and the vorticity at the tropopause derived by Vaughn and Price (1991). An example from 9 March 2009 is shown below, along with the 12Z 9 March 2009 GFS analysis. In comparing with the GFS analysis, the technique captures quite well the polar jets off the northwest Pacific Coast, over Wyoming and into the Dakotas (250-300 mb), and the subtropical jet over the Ohio valley (200 mb). Ultimately, the technique should be able to estimate the position and strength of the upper-level jet streams over the United States on an hourly basis. (J. Dostalek)
Reference: Vaughn, G. and J. D. Price, 1991: On the relation between total ozone and meteorology. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,117,1281-1298.
Tropopause level pressure (hPa, blue), wind vectors, and wind speed (m s-1, red) from satellite measurements of ozone on 9 March 2009.
Tropopause level pressure (hPa, blue), wind vectors, and wind speed (m s-1, red) from the 1200 UTC 9 March 2009 GFS analysis.
Using gridded temperature profiles derived from AMSU measurements, along with the assumption of hydrostatic balance and the 50 mb heights from the GFS analysis as a boundary condition, the height field as a function of pressure may be computed. From there a balance condition (QG, linear, nonlinear) may be assumed to derive a nondivergent estimate of the horizontal wind field, as well as a vertical velocity field through an omega equation. An example (linear-balance) omega field derived from AMSU data for a developing midlatitude cyclone over the Pacific Ocean is given for 00Z 7 October 2004. Also plotted is the 900-500 mb thickness field. For comparison, a corresponding figure from Martin (2006), for which he used GFS fields and a quasigeostrophic omega, is shown. The comparison is good, lending confidence to the satellite algorithm. The vertical wind fields will be used to compute the divergence fields for use in researching the Gulf Stream’s effects on the overlying atmosphere. This work is part of a joint project with Dudley Chelton of CIOSS. In May, Dr. Chelton presented the results of the work in a talk entitled “Observational Evidence of SST Influence on the Troposphere over the Gulf Stream” at the 2010 International Ocean Vector Winds Meeting in Barcelona, Spain. (J. Dostalek) Reference: Martin, J.E., 2006: The Role of Shearwise and Transverse Quasigeostrophic Vertical Motions in the Midlatitude Cyclone Life Cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1174-1193.
700-mb linear-balance omega (dPa s-1, blue) and 900-500 mb thickness (dam,black) over the Pacific Ocean, 00Z 7 October 2004. The fields have been computed from AMSU temperature profiles.
700-mb quasigeostrophic omega (dPa s-1, contoured and shaded) and 900-500 mb thickness (dam, contoured) over the Pacific Ocean, 00Z 7 October 2004. The fields have been computed from GFS analysis data. From Martin (2006).
The cloud climatology based on marine stratus depth work with Joe Clark and Mel Nordquist from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service(NWS) office, and Becca Mazur with Cheyenne, WY NWS office is continuing. There have been three telecons between CIRA, Eureka, and Cheyenne this quarter to discuss progress and project needs. (C.Combs)
Deb Molenar has successfully converted the cloud climatologies into netCDF and this data set has been transferred to Eureka. The climatologies for May15-June 15 are now up and running in the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) in the Eureka NWS office. (C. Combs, D. Molenar)
Difference images subtracting either two regimes of the same time period or between two hours of the same regime and time period have been produced for the Eureka composites. These are to highlight the difference between regimes or times during the day. Jpegs of these images have been placed on the CIRA FTP site for Mel and Becca to view and provide their comments. (C. Combs)
An abstract on the Eureka project for the AMS 17th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography September 2010 was written and submitted. In addition, a webpage describing this project was written up and is now in place on CIRA’s proving ground website. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/goes-r/proving_ground/cira_product_list/eureka_marine_stratus_cloud_climatologies.asp
(C. Combs)
Work on tuning the snow algorithms using MSG data is still ongoing. There are still areas of high ice cloud that are incorrectly identified as snow. Currently investigating the use of channel 10.7μm to filter out high, cold cloud tops from snow. Powerpoint presentation on this project for the GOES-R review was composed and presented on June 10, 2010. (C. Combs)
Work was started on the GIMPAP solar project. Wind regime climatologies produced over the Boulder, CO were sectored to look at Colorado and Fort Collins for the summer months, May-September. (C. Combs)
Figure 1: Difference image, 2000 minus 1200 UTC cloud percent climatologies, for Eureka, CA during time period Jul 16-Aug 15, 1999-2009, for regime 4 (marine stratus depth around 1500 feet at 1200 UTC)
The Visible Albedo algorithm/program used by B. Hughes to create visible albedo images failed when GOES-13 replaced GOES-12 as GOES-east on 14 April 2010. D. Hillger helped debug the problem and provided updated software for use at the NESDIS/OSPDP Satellite Services Division. (D. Hillger)
D. Hillger met with Tim Schmit (ASPB), Bill Campbell (NWS Office of Science and Technology), and several others, in Boulder on 18 May, to discuss bit depth issues for GOES-R ABI data in AWIPS. Hillger prepared some materials, showing the degradation that is inherent in using 8-bits for data that is available at 14-bits, the planned bit depth for most of the ABI bands. The use of too few bits manifests itself in two main areas, one being the cold end of shortwave (3.9 µm) images, and in image differences that inherently contain low signal-to-noise (decreased signal and increased noise). The main concern with using full bit depth involves the possibility of increased “latency” for ABI images and products. Presentation materials were later used in a white paper on the bit depth issue. (D. Hillger)
As part of that work, an analysis of the effect of reducing the bit-depth of RGB imagery was performed to assess the effect of using 8-bits displays (such as AWIPS) for ABI data which may contain as many as 14-bits of information per band. For this study, a 24-bit PPM image is optimally compressed into an 8-bit GIF image by standard image format conversion schemes. Such schemes preserve the most common of the 24-bit colors, leaving out only colors beyond those that can fit into 8-bits.
In Figure 1 are an RGB image (top) and an RGB difference image (bottom) that show the effect of reducing a 24-bit RGB image to an 8-bit RGB image. The 8-bit display (not shown) looks very much like its 24-bit counterpart, mainly because the noise (color differences) is small and the signal (wide range of color) is large, resulting in a large signal-to-noise. By using Paint Shop Pro as an analysis tool, however, the image differences can be enhanced. In the difference image (bottom) certain colors are not able to be reproduced using only 8-bits, resulting in the off-color areas compared to the RGB image (top). (D. Hillger)
Figure 1: 24-bit RGB image (top) and RGB difference image (bottom) created from the difference between 24-bit and 8-bit displays of the same image. (The 8-bit image is not shown.) In the bottom image, pixels with little or no difference (between 24-bits and 8-bits) retain their natural color, but pixels with larger differences have colors that are quite different from the true 24-bit color, as seen in the top image.
A breakthrough was made in application of the synthetic Green Look-Up-Table (LUT) when tested on MODIS data, after long suspecting that there was a Green bias in the MODIS RGBs created from a synthetic Green band. However, an error was found in the processing of the MODIS data. RGBs of MODIS created from actual and synthetic Green bands are now very similar, as witnessed in Figure 2. The main difference between the images occurs in centers of some of the lagoons, where the LUT was unable to provide a realistic Green value. This may be remedied by more training data, but that remains to be studied in the future. (D. Hillger)
Figure 2: RGB images of a Bahamas scene used to test the generation of a synthetic Green band. Actual RGB is on the top, and the synthetic-RGB is on the bottom. The only differences between the images are in some of the lagoons. Both images are Rayleigh-corrected to brighten the colors.
Additional analysis of a synthetic-Green band/image was accomplished by comparing it directly to the actual Green band for a MODIS test case. In Figure 3, an image of the differences shows a less-green bias in the synthetic-Green image. This agrees with the less-green bias when the component RGB images in Figure 2 are compared.
Figure 3: Difference image, synthetic-Green minus actual Green band for MODIS. The red areas have more green and the blue areas have less green. More blue than red in the image indicates an overall less-green bias. This agrees with the Hue analysis of the RGB images created using the synthetic-Green and actual-Green bands (not shown here).
Work on the“Kyrill” case is complete. A manuscript entitled, “Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method” is currently in press. (D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria)
Work on the 27 June 2005 thunderstorm case is complete. A manuscript entitled, “An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation” is currently in press. (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)
Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. Isidora Jankov is leading this effort. Results from this work are discussed in a recently prepared manuscript entitled, “An Evaluation of Various WRF-ARW Microphysics Using Simulated GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast”. This manuscript is in review. (I. Jankov, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, P. J. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D. Lindsey, and R. Brummer)
Collaboration with Martin Setvak of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute proved successful. A paper was written discussing “cold ring” thunderstorms. RAMS was run with different temperature structures at the tropopause to offer a possible explanation of satellite observed cold ring thunderstorms. The manuscript is in press. (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)
Collaboration with Wayne MacKenzie at the University of Alabama-Huntsville continues as a result of the Aviation AWG work. Together we are working on boundary layer moisture depth through the use of channel differences and convective initiation. Additionally, we have acquired a second year of AWG funds to provide additional synthetic GOES-R data to Wayne and his group. (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)
As part of the Spring Experiment at the Storm Prediction Center, we made real time GOES-R imagery. This imagery was made from the NSSL 4km WRF-ARW real time runs. We have been making such imagery at CIRA for the past month. The figure below is an example 10.35 µm image valid at 00Z on 24 April 2010 (a 24-hour forecast). (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey, Bob Rabin (NSSL/CIMSS), Scott Dembeck (NASA), Jack Kain (NSSL), Chris Siewert (SPC))
Figure. Synthetic 10.35 µm GOES-R ABI image valid at 00 UTC on 24 April 2010 based on a 24-hour forecast from SPC’s 4-km WRF-ARW simulation.
A test case of CIRA fog/stratus regime climatologies over Eureka CA, have been successful converted to AWIPS display format. Efforts are underway to complete conversion of the entire 10 years worth of climatology data for use at the Eureka CA NWS Forecast Office during for summer 2010 utilization. (D. Molenar)
Software to implement AWIPS modifications for ingest and display of the CIRA Orographic Rain Index product was successfully installed on the NWS Western Region HQ AWIPS server, and at the Eureka, CA FO. (D. Molenar)
Training metrics for the quarter:
17 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered. There were 31 teletraining signups, 74 students participated.
Registrations: 120
Completions: 92
LMS totals from January 2005 through June 22, 2010:
Registrations: 3069
Completions: 1772
Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations: The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz. A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions: The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course. A student may have completed multiple courses this way.
New training sessions:
Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:
Research:
Collaboration:
J. Braun currently (continuing) collaborating with the NWS Alaskan Region Environmental and Scientific Services Division (ESSD) as well as the NWS Alaskan Aviation Unit and NWS Center Weather Service Unit for the production of a two part session (series) to be used in the VISIT and SHyMet programs that addresses Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash. Beta testing, live training and production of a recorded version for part one of the series with begin in July.
D. Bikos collaborated with the Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) in Norman, OK and Jonathan Finch (NWS Dodge City, KS) to assist in the development of an AWOC winter weather course on shallow cold air masses. The training will be delivered to NWS forecast offices. A journal article is also planned from this research.
J. Braun and D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service.
Publications:
22 May 2008”. The manuscript has been accepted in the Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology and publication is scheduled for late June.
VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/) – (J. Braun) Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training worlds. The blog is now averaging 250 views per week. A new category introduced recently concerns CIRA’s role in GOES-R Proving Ground information and products.
The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – June 22, 2010. The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
| Sessions | Number of offices attending (signups) | Certificates Issued | Participants | |
| Total | 1503 | 6557 | 17697 | 23143 |
| Enhanced-V | 69 | 211 | 540 | 540 |
| Detecting Boundaries | 12 | 62 | 226 | 226 |
| Detecting LTO boundaries at night | 17 | 67 | 186 | 186 |
| CONUS CG Lightning Activity | 16 | 86 | 285 | 285 |
| Using GOES RSO | 26 | 83 | 263 | 263 |
| Tropical Satellite Imagery | 8 | 48 | 138 | 138 |
| GOES Enhancements in AWIPS | 9 | 47 | 109 | 109 |
| Diagnosing Mesoscale Ascent | 21 | 83 | 252 | 252 |
| Applying Mesoscale Tools | 5 | 54 | 202 | 202 |
| Diagnosing Surface Boundaries | 24 | 106 | 307 | 307 |
| QuikSCAT | 11 | 42 | 135 | 161 |
| Lake-Effect Snow | 15 | 64 | 210 | 262 |
| NDIC | 19 | 40 | 105 | 107 |
| Lightning Met 1 | 63 | 331 | 1129 | 1377 |
| Precip Type | 5 | 44 | 186 | 195 |
| Pattern Recognition to MRF | 10 | 70 | 277 | 277 |
| HPC Medium Range Forecasting | 15 | 101 | 335 | 335 |
| Ingredients based Approach | 36 | 198 | 626 | 626 |
| Model Initializations | 20 | 124 | 440 | 569 |
| NWP Top 10 Misconceptions | 27 | 148 | 532 | 681 |
| GOES Sounder | 29 | 122 | 262 | 350 |
| GOES High Density winds | 21 | 71 | 161 | 161 |
| Forecasting MCS’s | 12 | 84 | 232 | 287 |
| Mesoanalysis using RSO | 52 | 181 | 565 | 702 |
| Near-Storm data in WDM | 14 | 91 | 340 | 379 |
| POES | 6 | 27 | 63 | 84 |
| Lightning Met 2 | 43 | 261 | 731 | 941 |
| Ensemble Prediction Systems | 17 | 93 | 303 | 377 |
| Eta12 | 14 | 57 | 194 | 241 |
| Tornado Warning Guidance 2002 | 13 | 91 | 355 | 409 |
| Fog Detection | 11 | 80 | 264 | 331 |
| ACARS | 13 | 73 | 204 | 264 |
| Cyclogenesis | 74 | 317 | 1045 | 1242 |
| TRAP | 5 | 20 | 66 | 70 |
| Subtropical | 2 | 15 | 54 | 65 |
| Mesoscale Banding | 8 | 78 | 302 | 356 |
| Lake-Effect Snow II | 15 | 52 | 128 | 179 |
| TROWAL | 30 | 142 | 357 | 520 |
| Hydro-Estimator | 15 | 58 | 171 | 221 |
| GOES Fire Detection | 17 | 69 | 205 | 234 |
| GOES-12 | 21 | 76 | 248 | 299 |
| RSO 3 (Parts 1 AND 2) | 60 | 228 | 310 | 861 |
| Water Vapor Imagery | 52 | 219 | 475 | 699 |
| Mesoscale Convective Vortices | 40 | 166 | 435 | 564 |
| AWIPS Cloud Height / Sounder | 11 | 55 | 128 | 178 |
| QuikSCAT winds | 10 | 37 | 107 | 110 |
| Convective Downbursts | 58 | 210 | 460 | 751 |
| DGEX | 27 | 215 | 562 | 785 |
| Severe Parameters | 16 | 136 | 324 | 431 |
| Winter Weather (Parts 1 AND 2) | 48 | 246 | 264 | 888 |
| Predicting Supercell Motion | 9 | 103 | 197 | 274 |
| Monitoring Moisture Return | 14 | 49 | 127 | 190 |
| Pulse Thunderstorms | 3 | 48 | 116 | 190 |
| GOES 3.9 um Channel | 5 | 17 | 56 | 77 |
| Gridded MOS | 18 | 97 | 147 | 335 |
| MODIS Products in AWIPS | 40 | 81 | 213 | 240 |
| CRAS Forecast Imagery in AWIPS | 21 | 34 | 47 | 93 |
| Orographic Effects | 24 | 61 | 121 | 206 |
| NAM-WRF | 14 | 52 | 59 | 144 |
| Basic Satellite Principles | 21 | 34 | 61 | 83 |
| Warm Season Ensembles | 24 | 60 | 87 | 166 |
| Potential Vorticity + Water Vapor | 34 | 98 | 191 | 258 |
| Cold Season Ensembles | 20 | 64 | 129 | 233 |
| GOES Low Cloud Base Product | 14 | 36 | 57 | 109 |
| Coastal Effects | 8 | 15 | 46 | 53 |
| NHC Hurricane Models | 4 | 18 | 55 | 55 |
| Interpreting Satellite Signatures | 18 | 31 | 34 | 90 |
| Utility of GOES for Severe Wx | 19 | 45 | 79 | 142 |
| NHC Track Models | 2 | 10 | 25 | 40 |
| NHC Intensity Models | 2 | 7 | 26 | 33 |
| Basic Sat Interp in the Tropics | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 |
| POES and AVHRR in AWIPS | 3 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
| UW Convective Initiation Product | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 |
Meetings and Calls
Members of the VISIT / SHyMet team attended the GOES-R proving ground meeting in May. This included discussion on satellite related training.
VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on April 8 and June 1.
A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.
A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participates in the COMET monthly satellite call to keep informed of training efforts there.
New SHyMet For Forecasters training course: released January 2010. It consists of 6 core courses (2 optional courses will be added soon).
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp :
The new Development Plan includes 6 core modules plus two optional modules:
Optional modules
SHyMet For Forecasters Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:
4 NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (April – June 2010) for the SHyMet Forecasters Course (20 total for January 2010 through June 25, 2010) 4 Participants completed the course this quarter.
2 Non-NOAA participants (International) have registered here at CIRA this quarter for the SHyMet Forecasters Course. (2 total for January 2010 – June 25, 2010) There were no completions this quarter.
SHyMet Forecaster- NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
SHyMet For Forecasters – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Forecasters individual class/session breakdown through June 25, 2010 (for “online” training only).
Individual SHyMet Forecasters Session Metrics – Registered through LMS:
SHyMet Intern course
The SHyMet Intern course continues to be offered online. It consists of 9 modules
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp ).
SHyMet Intern Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:
12 NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (April – June 2010) for the SHyMet Intern Course (240 total for April 2006 through June 25, 2010) 4 Participants completed the course this quarter.
2 Non-NOAA participants (International) have registered here at CIRA this quarter for the SHyMet Intern Course. (29 total for April 2006 – June 25, 2010) There were no completions this quarter.
SHyMet Intern – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Intern individual class/session breakdown through
June 25, 2010 (for “online” training only).
Individual SHyMet Intern Session Metrics – Registered through LMS:
Progress on new Tropical SHyMet training course:
A number of new training modules with a Tropical theme have been developed over the last year with some being completed or updated this Spring 2010. The SHyMet team will organize the content into a Tropical SHyMet series and offer it as a course during the summer of 2010.
The modules proposed for Tropical SHyMet include:
Progress on new SHyMet for Hydrologists training course:
The SHyMet Remote Sensing for Hydrology course is beginning to take shape.
As of the February 2010 meeting, the SHyMet team is looking at five areas of focus:
Background:
1) Satellite Applications of QPE/QPF
2) Summary of Hydrology needs with respect to Remote Sensing (including aspects of soil moisture, flooding, land use, vegetation coverage, and watershed characteristics
3) National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) snow melt assessment process
Examples and Real time applications
4) Feature ID
5) Ice and Snow – How to detect it and use it in the hydrology process
Further work necessitates working closely with the Hydrologist at NOAA/ NWS/ OCWWS Training Division in Boulder, forecasters at the River Forecast Centers (RFC) and researchers at NOHRSC.
Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for April, May, and June 2010) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ) and voice via Yahoo Messenger. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, NWS Training Division, and the NWS International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Antigua, Argentina, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Panamá, Peru, Trinidad, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters. The discussions were well attended with an average of 21 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites. Mike Davison from the NWS International Desk at NCEP started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis. We discussed cloud motion, and cloud texture within the context of geography to infer winds and weather patterns over South America. We looked at anomalous sea surface temperatures and the position of the ITCZ in the different months particularly in the eastern Atlantic and eastern Pacific and discussed implications for the coming hurricane season. Other highlights: In April, we looked at Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) SEVERI imagery and products of the volcanic eruption in Iceland. In May, we looked at a case example over Haiti in which jet dynamics were linked to significant and directed convection. (B. Connell)
During the dry months, Barbados has been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region. CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above. (B. Connell)
Sharing of Imagery and Products
Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can now be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp).
Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/
(B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)
Software, display, monitoring and archive procedures were developed for GOES-15 checkout. Attempts to ingest test data indicated that there were problems with the SDI ingest software. SSEC was notified of this, and ingest of test data was successful after software patches were installed. (D. Molenar)
The first full-disk visible and Sounder visible images from GOES-15 were sent down in GVAR format on 6 and 8 April 2010, respectively. See Figure 4 and the GOES-15 Science Test page for the images captured at both CIRA and CIMSS (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/). The GOES-15 Science Test is co-led with Tim Schmit. The main part of the Science Test will start on 7 August 2010. (D. Hillger)
Figure 4: First GOES-15 full-disk visible image as received on 6 April 2010 at 1730 UTC.
The first full-disk infrared (IR) images from GOES-15 were sent down in GVAR format on 26 April 2010. In contrast, there was some difficulty receiving the first “official” Sounder IR images. However, other Sounder IR images appeared to be ok. See the GOES-15 Science Test page for the first images captured at both CIRA and CIMSS (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/). Also, see the GOES-15 RAMSDIS Online showing what areas are currently being imaged (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-15.asp). (At this point GOES 15 data are neither fully calibrated nor navigated.) The GOES-15 Science Test is co-led with Tim Schmit. The main part of the Science Test will start on 7 August 2010. (D. Hillger)
New software, display, monitoring and archive procedures were developed for the real-time ingest of GOES-E & GOES-W after CIRA Groundsystem hardware failure. Efforts are underway to transition this responsibility back to Groundsystem control. (D. Molenar)
GOES E/W RAMSDIS Online problems were fixed. The problems were caused by Windows and Linux incompatibilities after a Windows Server OS upgrade. (D. Molenar)
Transition of RAMSDIS Online data processing from individual workstation processing to single server batch processing is complete. (D. Molenar)
A workstation has been configured for AWIPS II implementation at RAMMB/CIRA. Hardware to match the NWS FO new AWIPS II workstations is being procured. (D. Molenar)
Hardware cost/performance evaluation for 2010 IT Refresh is complete; procurement specs have been submitted to StAR. (D. Molenar)
To Accepted and Submitted Publications To Awards Presentations Posters Notes
Published:
Finch, J.D., D. Bikos, 2010: A Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell over Colorado and Wyoming, 22 May 2008.Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology. http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/issue/current
Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria, 2010: Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms that occurred on 8 May 2003. Int. J. of Remote Sensing. 31:3, 647-663.
Kaplan, J, J. J. Cione, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, J. Dunion, J.F. Dostalek, J. E. Solbrig, J. Hawkins, T. F. Lee, J. Zhang, E. Kalina, and P. Leighton, 2010: Enhancements to the operational SHIPS rapid intensification index. 29th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 8-12 May 2010, Tucson, AZ.
Knaff, J.A, M. DeMaria, J. Kaplan, J. Dunion, R. DeMaria, 2010: Assessing the impact of total Precipitable water and lightning on SHIPS forecasts. 29th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 8-12 May 2010, Tucson, AZ.
Schumacher A.B, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, and D. P. Brown 2010: Objective tropical cyclone warning guidance using Monte Carlo wind speed probabilities. 29th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 8-12 May 2010, Tucson, AZ.
Velden C.S., C. Rozoff, A. Wimmers, M. Sitkowski, M. E. Kieper, J. Kossin, J. Hawkins, and J.A. Knaff 2010: An objective method to predict near real time rapid intensification of tropical cyclones using satellite passive microwave observations. 29th AMX Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 8-12 May 2010, Tucson, AZ.
Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2010: Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2010: Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.
Finch, J., and D. Bikos, 2010: A Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell over Colorado and Wyoming, 22 May 2008, Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology
Fromm, M., D.T. Lindsey, R. Servranckx, G.Yue, T. Trickl, R.Sica, P. Doucet, and S. Godin-Beekmann, 2010: The Untold Story of Pyrocumulonimbus. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.
Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2010: An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation. International Journal of Remote Sensing. (In press)
Jankov I., L.D. Grasso, M. Sengupta, P.J. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D.T. Lindsey, and R. Brummer, 2010: An Evaluation of Five WRF-ARW Microphysics Schemes Using Synthetic GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2010: A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. Weather and Forecasting.
Knaff, J.A., D. P. Brown, J. Courtney, G. M. Gallina, J. L. Beven II, 2010: An Evaluation of Dvorak Technique-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates. Weather and Forecasting.
Lindsey, D.T, S. Miller, L.D. Grasso, 2010: The impacts of the 9 April 2009 dust and smoke on convection. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. (In press)
Schumacher R., D.T. Lindsey, A. Schumacher, J. Braun, S. Miller, and J. Demuth, 2010: Multidisciplinary Analysis of an Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Warnings. Weather and Forecasting
Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2010: Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .
Setvák, M., M. Radová, P. Novák, D.T. Lindsey, L. Grasso, P. K. Wang, Shih-Hao Su, R. M. Rabin, J. Kerkmann, J. Šťástka, Z. Charvát, and H. Kyznarová, 2010: Convective storms with a cold-ring shaped cloud top feature. Atmos. Research. (In press)
Zupanski, D., M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2010: Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method. International Journal of Remote Sensing. (In press)
DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, R. DeMaria, J. Kaplan, and N. Demetriades, 2010: Application of Lightning Measurements to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasting. 17th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 27 September-1 October, Annapolis, MD.
Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger R. Brummer, and R. DeMaria, 2010: Synthetic GOES-R Imagery of Agricultural Burning and Forest Wildfires. 29th AMS Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2-6 August 2010, Keystone, CO.
Grasso, L.D., D.T. Lindsey, W. MacKenzie, 2010: Detecting Boundary Layer Moisture Convergence with GOES-R ABI Bands.25th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms. October 11-15, Denver, CO.
Lindsey, D.T., 2010: A Statistical Hail Prediction Product. 25th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms. October 11-15, Denver, CO.
Lindsey, D.T., 2010: One-Minute GOES Observations during VORTEX II. 25th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms. October 11-15, Denver, CO.
Lindsey, D.T., L.D. Grasso, J. Sieglaff, J. Otkin, R. Rabin, J. Kain, 2010: Simulating GOES-R Satellite Imagery from WRF Output. 25th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms. October 11-15, Denver, CO.
Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2010: Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.
Lazzara, M.A., S.A. Ackerman, D.W. Hillger, 2010: Detecting Fog over Antarctia from Satellite. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
Rappaport, E.N., J.L. Franklin, A.B. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, L.K. Shay, E.J. Gibney, 2010: Tropical cyclone intensity change before U.S. Gulf coast landfall. Wea. and Forecasting
Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2010: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.
Zupanski, D., 2010: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.
Zupanski, M., 2010: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.
J. Knaff helped prepare Blevens Middle School Science Olympians on the general topic of Weather. These students will be competing in the State (CO) competition later this month. J. Braun provided assistance locating example cases and work material.
Luciane Veeck, the Virtual Laboratory Technical Support Officer to WMO, visited CIRA June 22-25. On Wednesday, we visited with the NWS Training Division and the COMET programs in Boulder and participated in a Regional Focus Group of the Americas online session. Many topics were discussed: the upcoming VLab management group meeting in Beijing in July, information content on web pages, reporting practices for the Satellite Operators and the Regional Centers of Excellence, as well as training evaluations and methods to cooperate and share training ideas and methods. (B. Connell)
As part of the GOES-R Visiting Scientist Program, Dr. Martin Setvak (Czech Hydrometeorological Institute) and his PhD student, Jindra Stastka, visited CIRA from May 19-June 2. During their visit, we worked together on a number of projects, including cloud-top severe storm observations, satellite imagery visualization, and using channel differencing over the tops of convection. The image below shows an example of something we worked on, the so-called “sandwich product.” Image processing software is used to combine a color-enhanced infrared image with a visible image, thus allowing one to easily co-locate (for example) a thunderstorm overshooting top with the cloud top brightness temperature. This example from GOES-11 shows supercell thunderstorms observed over Colorado on 26 May 2010. (D. Lindsey)
Figure. Example of a “sandwich” product, in which a GOES-11 color-enhanced 10.7 µm image is blended with the corresponding visible image, from 26 May 2010 over
Dr. Michael Brennan from the National Hurricane Center visited CIRA on Monday, May 17th to prepare for the GOES-R Proving Ground activities at NHC beginning August 1st, to finalize a presentation for the Proving Ground annual review meeting and to discuss a Joint Hurricane Testbed project to develop new applications of their tropical cyclone wind speed probability product. (M. DeMaria)
Bob Rabin (NSSL) visited RAMMB on April 6 and again on June 23-24. He is involved in several collaborative projects, including a GIMPAP project looking at hail probability forecasts and a new project in which CIRA is generating simulated GOES-R imagery from the 4-km WRF to be examined during the Storm Prediction Center’s 2010 Spring Experiment. (D. Lindsey)
Birds have been an ongoing problem at CIRA and ATS. Seen in the figure below are frightened children running from the feathered fiends near CIRA. CSU, CIRA and the Department of Atmospheric Science are working on a solution. (J. Dostalek)
Frightened children running from the birds in May. The children were visiting CIRA on a school field trip.
Collaborations:
1) Yi Jin at NRL: Last quarter I made synthetic GOES-12 imagery of a COAMPS model simulation of hurricane Hanna as part of the HFIP project. She gave an oral presentation of our work at the AMS’s 29 conference on Tropical Meteorology to be held in May 2010 in Tucson, Arizona. (L. Grasso)
2) Wayne MacKenzie at the University of Alabama-Huntsville: This is as a result of our Aviation AWG work. (L. Grasso)
Colorado State University issued a press release about a study on the Windsor, CO tornado that occurred in May 2008. This study, to appear in a forthcoming issue of Weather and Forecasting, looked at the meteorology of the unusual event as well as the societal response to the tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service. It was lead by Russ Schumacher (NCAR then, Texas A&M now), and co-authors include D. Lindsey, A. Schumacher, J. Braun, S. Miller, and J. Demuth (NCAR). The press release is here: http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/5256. So far, the story has been picked up by the AP, the Ft. Collins Coloradoan, newspapers in Greeley and Windsor, the local National Public Radio station, and some news outlets out of Denver. (D. Lindsey, A. Schumacher, J. Braun, S. Miller)
The entire RAMMB participated in a NESDIS EEO/Diversity program titled “Prevention of Workplace Violence” on 15 April 2010. The program was presented live in Silver Springs and provided to us (and ASPB in Wisconsin) via video teleconference. (M. DeMaria)
D. Hillger attended several of the lectures offered in the 2010 Professional Development Institute, an annual opportunity for CSU faculty and staff to both present and participate in each other’s areas of expertise. Particular highlights included lectures on using PowerPoint more effectively, teaching/learning principles in general, searching through electronic databases available at the library, personal computer security, and the benefits of healthy lifestyles. (D. Hillger)