Moisture In Flux Storm Tool

  • The influx of dry air adversely affects TC:
    • inhibits convection
    • enhances cold downdrafts
    • contributes to storm asymmetry
  • Dry air mentioned in NHC forecast discussions:2019  – 29%  of discussions , 2020 – 31% 
  • Dry air intrusions are detected using  
    • TPW, LPW – dominated by low-level moisture
    • WV imagery – does not provide moisture information from a consistent layer
  • Existing tools are not quantitative and do not necessarily reflect moisture flux changes at mid-levels
  • Global storm-relative MIST is a
    • Qualitative tool for detecting dry-air intrusions for intensity forecasting
    • Combines
      • moisture profiles from microwave sounders (Advanced Technology Microwave sounder, ATMS) derived with Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS)
      • GFS winds
  • Available for SNPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21

Project Team

  • Galina Chirokova
  • Mark DeMaria

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