Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Research institutions along the Front Range of Colorado have a long, rich history of advancing tropical cyclone research and applications. Despite the proximity, researchers across these multiple Colorado institutions found that they often only interacted at professional meetings. To address this issue, researchers started an informal workshop back in January 2008 between students, postdoctoral fellows, research scientists, and faculty from

• The NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research,
• The Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere,
• The National Center for Atmospheric Research,
• The Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science,
• The NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories,
• The University of Colorado at Boulder, and others.

Over the years, this workshop has allowed Colorado researchers to present innovative ideas and receive feedback thanks to longer speaking slots than at most meetings and multiple breaks to spur discussion. Today, the workshop, now called Front Range Tropical Cyclone Workshop, continues this tradition, and convenes a one-day, annual meeting. Workshop hosting alternates between Colorado State University in Fort Collins and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.

• Current Organizer: Chris Slocum, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, 2014–Present
• Past Organizer: John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, 2008–2013

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Past Workshops

18 July 2024 – Fort Collins

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Alexander Mitchell	U Albany	Atmospheric Dynamics Governing the Recurvature of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Angelie Nieves Jiménez	CSU/ATS	Extreme Rainfall and Intensification Mechanisms in Hurricane Fiona (2022)
Dave Schecter	NWRA	Two Types of Transitions to Relatively Fast Spinup in Tropical Cyclone Simulations with Weak to Moderate Environmental Vertical Wind Shear
Galina Chirokova	CSU/CIRA	What can we learn about TCs from the microwave temperature retrievals?
Guo Lin	NOAA/OAR/AOML	Uncrewed Aircraft Observations of Turbulent Characteristics in the Low-Level Eye and Eyewall of Intense Hurricane Ian (2022)
Joesph Cione	NOAA/OAR/AOML	NOAA’s 2024 Plans to Use Emerging Technology In Tropical Cyclones
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	A simple model for predicting tropical cyclone minimum central pressure from intensity and size
Kathy Haynes	CSU/CIRA	Synthetic Passive Microwave
Lance Bosart	U Albany	Multiple “Flavors” of Tropical Cyclone Interactions with Middle Latitude Baroclinic Troughs Over the North Atlantic Ocean in September 2023
Michael Bell	CSU/ATS	In-situ Microphysical Observations of the Tropical Cyclone Mixed-Phase Region
Taiga Tsukada	CSU/CIRA	Wind Distribution in the Eye of Tropical Cyclone Revealed by a Novel Atmospheric Motion Vector Derivation

25 October 2023 – Boulder

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Alex DesRosiers	CSU/ATS	Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Reduction Using a Neural Network
Ben Trabing	NCAR/UCAR	RMW Forecasting at NHC / Evaluation of HAFS
Chris Rozoff	NCAR/UCAR	Large-eddy simulations of the tropical cyclone boundary layer at landfall in an idealized urban environment
Chris Slocum	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Barotropic instability during eyewall replacement
Galina Chirokova	CSU/CIRA	Estimating tropical and extratropical storm intensity and structure from JPSS microwave temperature retrievals – current and future products
Joe Cione	NOAA/OAR/AOML	sUAS operations in hurricanes since 2022
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Using satellite derived motion winds to improve monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	FLIGHT-RT and VDM-RT: Real-time Data Streams of Flight-level Data
Mark DeMaria	CSU/CIRA	Evaluation of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in the FourCastNet weather prediction model
Robert Nystrom	NCAR/UCAR	The intrinsic predictability of subseasonal TC activity
Stefano Alessandrini	NCAR/UCAR	An overview about the analog ensemble applications to tropical cyclones

4 October 2022 – Fort Collins

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Alan Brammer	CSU/CIRA	On the Development of a Hybrid Statistical-Ensemble TC Genesis Probability Model
Alex DesRosiers	CSU/ATS	The Relationship between Observed Tropical Cyclone Vortex Height, Intensity, and Intensification
Andrea Schumacher	CSU/CIRA	A new database of mainland U.S. hurricane evacuation orders
Ben Trabing	CSU/CIRA	Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclone Lightning
Chibueze Nnamdi Oguejiofor	NCAR/UCAR	Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification: Influence of multiscale anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature
David Schecter	NWRA	Distinct Intensification Pathways for Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices with Asymmetric Convection
Ellie Casas	CSU/ATS	Differences in Intensification Rates Resulting from Variable Idealized TC Structure and Intensity
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	An ensemble-based statistical model for the prediction of rapid intensification at extended lead-times in tropical cyclones
Joseph Cione	NOAA/OAR/AOML	NEOTAC and/or TC sUAS operations
Marie McGraw	CSU/CIRA	Machine Learning Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
Mark DeMaria	CSU/CIRA	Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Vortex Depth from Storm Motion
Tyler Barbero	CSU/ATS	PPVI diagnosis of track errors in the GFS, IFS and GFDL SHiELD models in the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season

28 November 2018 – Fort Collins

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Ben Trabing	CSU/ATS	Understanding rapid intensity changes in official hurricane intensity forecast error distributions
Chris Rozoff	NCAR/UCAR	Machine learning techniques for tropical cyclone rapid intensification prediction
Chris Slocum	CIRA	Using a greenhouse parameter to understand moisture errors around tropical cyclones
Christian Appendini	UNAM	Will Patricia like hurricanes become usual by the end of the century?
David Schecter	NWRA	Tropical cyclone instability theory
Falko Judt	NCAR/UCAR	Tropical cyclones in global convection-permitting NWP simulations
Jen DeHart	CSU/ATS	Polarimetric radar observations of Harvey and Florence
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Toward routine estimation of the radius of maximum wind – the last piece of the structure puzzle
Jonathan Martinez	CSU/ATS	Exploring the combined effects of initial vortex size and environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size evolution
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	Overview of research developments in tropical cyclone intensity change: Internal influences (2014–2018)
Kate Musgrave	CIRA	Exploring SPICE model errors
Louis Rivoire	CSU/ATS	Temperature tendencies in the UTLS above tropical cyclones
Mike Fiorino	CIRES	TC forecast metrics – real v fake track error
Ya-Chien Feng	CSU/ATS	Microphysical structure of Hurricane Harvey’s (2017) asymmetric eyewall

8 March 2018 – Boulder

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Chelsea Nam	CSU/ATS	Multi-Scale Shear Impacts During the Genesis of Typhoon Hagupit (2008)
Chris Davis	NCAR/UCAR	Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models
Chris Rozoff	NCAR/UCAR	Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclones with an Analog Ensemble
Chris Slocum	CIRA	Some dynamical aspects of eyewall interaction
Ellie Delap	CSU/ATS	A Simplified Approach to Understanding Boundary Layer Structure Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Falko Judt	NCAR/UCAR	The Extreme Intensification and Predictability of 2015’s Hurricane Patricia
George Bryan	NCAR/UCAR	Unique observations in Hurricane Maria from the Coyote UAS
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	10-year GOES climatology of cold lows, the TC antithesis
John Persing	NPS	Boundary-layer Spin-up Mechanisms Investigated with Sawyer-Eliassen Balanced Model
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	Exploring the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Kate Musgrave	CIRA	Preliminary examination of H-GPROF in tropical cyclones
Mike Fiorino	CIRES	Preliminary examination of H-GPROF in tropical cyclones
Naufal Razin	CSU/ATS	The Unconventional Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Hurricane Ophelia (2005)
Rosimar Rios-Berrios	NCAR/UCAR	A Hypothesis for the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear
Ting-Yu Cha	CSU/ATS	A Hypothesis for the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

24 October 2016 – Fort Collins

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Bonnie Brown	Univ. Hawaii	Modifications to a Partially Double Moment Microphysics Parameterization for Hurricane Simulations
Chris Davis	NCAR/UCAR	Diverging Paths: ECMWF and GFS TC Forecasts
Chris Slocum	CSU/ATS	A Simplified Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Evan Kalina	CIRES	Power Spectra and Eddy Dissipation Rate Measured by the Coyote Unmanned Aircraft System in Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Falko Judt	NCAR/UCAR	Predictability and Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Synthetic Hurricane Wind Fields Based on Modeled Winds and Infrared Imagery: Method, Results, and Potential Applications
John Persing	NPS	Hurricanes in Periodic Domains
Jonathan Martinez	CSU/ATS	Potential Vorticity Structure of Hurricane Patricia During Rapid Intensification
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	The Tropical Cyclone Observations-Based Structure Database (TC-OBS)
Mel Nicholls	CIRES	A Numerical Modeling Investigation of Several Physical Processes that Appear to be Important for Tropical Cyclogenesis
Michael Bell	CSU	Retrieved Thermodynamic Structure of Hurricane Rita (2005) using RAINEX Observations
Mike Fiorino	NOAA/OAR/ESRL	An Alternative Metric of TC ‘Forecast Error’
Ren Smith	CU-Boulder	On the Formation and Evolution of Small Scale Low Level Vorticity Anomalies During Tropical Cyclogenesis
Stephanie Pilkington	CSU/CE	Hurricane Impact Level Ranking System Model
Stephen Herbener	CSU/ATS	Tropical Storm Redistribution of Saharan Dust to the Upper Troposphere and Ocean Surface

21 July 2015 – Boulder

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Ben Trabing	OU	Analysis of Hurricanes Using Long-Range Lightning Detection Networks
Chris Slocum	CSU/ATS	Can comparisons of precipitable water from models and satellite provide guidance on guidance?
Cindy Bruyere	NCAR/UCAR	Idealized Tropical Storms on Planet Oz
Colin Zarzycki	NCAR/UCAR	Do tropical cyclone cold wakes impact storm climatology in a high-resolution global model?
Daniel Stern	NCAR/UCAR	The Structure and Dynamics of Coherent Vortices in the Eyewall Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclones
Galina Chirokova	CIRA	Quality of ATMS-MIRS retrievals for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Using Routinely Available Information to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure
John Persing	NPS	The Sensitivity of Intensification to WISHE Feedback
Josh Watts	NCAR/UCAR	Social science & tropical cyclones
Justin Baldizón Stark	CSU/CMMAP	Examining intensity trends during extratropical transition
Kate Musgrave	CIRA	Verification of HWRF synthetic satellite brightness temperatures
Michael Natoli	UMD	Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Model Diagnostics of Operationally Analyzed Tropical Disturbance
Tom Galarneau	NCAR/UCAR	Aggregation of Parameterized Convection in Idealized Simulations

10 November 2014 – Fort Collins

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Andrea Schumacher	CIRA	Evaluating subjective uncertainty estimates in NHC forecast discussions
Chris Davis	NCAR/UCAR	Reconciling different perspectives of tropical cyclone genesis
Chris Slocum	CSU/ATS	Revisiting the slab boundary layer model for tropical cyclones
Dan Stern	NCAR/UCAR	Revisiting the relationship between eyewall contraction and intensification
George Bryan	NCAR/UCAR	Methods to calculate vertical diffusion in numerical models and their effect on hurricane structure
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	An argument for gale force wind forecasts beyond 72 hours for tropical cyclones
Jonathan Poterjoy	NCAR/UCAR	A comparison of four-dimensional data assimilation methods with and without a tangent linear model for predicting the genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)
Kate Musgrave	CIRA	Evaluation of HWRF for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season
Mike Fiorino	NOAA/OAR/ESRL	GFS (and FIM) spuricane activity in the Gulf of Mosquitoes during the 2014 season
Tom Calarneau	NCAR/UCAR	Climatology of vertical wind shear near tropical disturbances

8 January 2014 – Boulder

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Alick Haruhiru	NCAR/UCAR	Examining the use of tropical cyclone genesis in present and future climate for the South Pacific basin
Chris Davis	NCAR/UCAR	The Inner Pouch
Chris Slocum	CSU/ATS	Tropical cyclone boundary layer shocks
Daniel Stern	NCAR/UCAR	The Structure and Dynamics of Coherent Vortices in the Eyewall Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclones
Galina Chirokova	CIRA	RII estimates with ATMS profiles
Ghassan Alaka	CSU/ATS	Intraseasonal Variability of African Easterly Waves
Greg Holland	NCAR/UCAR	Response of Australian Temperature Extremes to Climate Variability and Change
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Accounting for Variations in TC Size
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	Steps Toward an Improved Database for Tropical Cyclone Wind Modeling
Kate Musgrave	CIRA	Verification of HWRF synthetic satellite brightness temperatures
Mark DeMaria	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Application of the Computer Vision Hough Transform for Automated Tropical Cyclone Center-Fixing from Satellite Data
Mike Fiorino	NOAA/OAR/ESRL	Intensity v Forecast (track) Error – how/are they related?
Thomas Galarneau	NCAR/UCAR	Analysis of Hurricane Rita (2005) Track Forecasts using Ensemble Reforecast Data

16 May 2013 – Fort Collins

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Chris Slocum	CSU/ATS	Interpretation of hurricane concentric eyewalls as boundary layer shock-like structures
Daniel Stern	NCAR/UCAR	How does the eye Warm?: A potential temperature and trajectory analysis of idealized tropical cyclones
Galina Chirokova	CIRA	Tropical Cyclones thermodynamic analysis using satellite microwave soundings
Gus Alaka	CSU/ATS	Intraseasonal variability of AEWs
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Statistically estimating tropical cyclone surface winds from 2-dimensional satellite imagery
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	Development of an HWRF diagnostics module to evaluate intensity and structure using synthetic flight paths through tropical cyclones
Kate Musgrave	CIRA
Kimberly Mueller	RMS	Hurricane and storm surge modeling at Risk Management Systems (RMS)
Man Zhang	CIRA	Assimilation of all-sky satellite radiances in TC core area using an ensemble-based data assimilation method
Mark DeMaria	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	A simple ocean cooling parameterization for the SHIPS model
Steve Herbener	CSU/ATS	Aerosol indirect effects on idealized tropical cyclone dynamics
Steve Saleeby	CSU/ATS	Influence of Saharan dust on the microphysical structure of deep tropical convectionInfluence of Saharan dust on the microphysical structure of deep tropical convection
Yumin Moon	NCAR/UCAR	Inner rainbands and vortex-Rossby waves in numerical simulations of tropical cyclones

16 August 2012 – Boulder

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Andrea Schmacher	CIRA	Socioeconomic Applications of Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probabilities
Chris Davis	NCAR/UCAR	Microwave Temperature Profiler Observations in Tropical Waves
Greg Holland	NCAR/UCAR	What if We Could Play God with Regional Climate?
Gus Alaka	CSU/ATS	Intraseasonal Variability of Upstream AEW Initiation
James Done	NCAR/UCAR	Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Modeling
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	TC Size Matters
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	Large-scale diagnostics work with the basin-scale HWRF
Julie Demuth	NCAR/UCAR	Creating and Communicating Hurricane Risk Information
Kate Musgrave	CIRA	Global Ensemble TC Diagnostics
Man Zhang	CIRA	Efficient methods to assimilate cloud-affected satellite radiances
Mark DeMaria	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Vertical Shear Modification of Maximum Potential Intensity Estimates
Mike Fiorino	NOAA/OAR/ESRL	TC genesis and demographics
Stephanie Slade	CSU/ATS	An intraseasonal model for the prediction of Atlantic and East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis
Thomas Galarneau	NCAR/UCAR	Inter-Annual Variability of African Easterly Waves in the NCAR Nested Regional Climate Model

16 November 2011 – Fort Collins

Presenter Name	Affiliation	Presentation Title
Andrea Schumacher	CIRA	Another Look at the Use of Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones
Brian Tang	NCAR/UCAR	A long-term, global tropical disturbance database
Chris Davis	NCAR/UCAR	Temperature Anomalies in Tropical Disturbances
Dara Schönemann	Univ. Hamburg	Techniques to maintain the steady-state of TCs in axisymmetric high-resolution models
Gabriel Williams	CSU/ATS	Instability of Vorticity Rings with Vertical Shear
John Knaff	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Typical Upper Oceanic Energy Response to Tropical Cyclone Passage
Jonathan Vigh	NCAR/UCAR	How Often Does Eye Formation Coincide with Rapid Intensification?
Kate Musgrave	CSU/ATS	Time Evolution of the Size and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones or Atlantic TC Eye Estimates from Aircraft Reconnaissance
Man Zhang	CIRA	Radiance data assimilation in TC inner core
Mark DeMaria	NOAA/NESDIS/STAR	Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Steering Levels
Mike Fiorino	NOAA/OAR/ESRL	TCgen2 — applications of a multi-deterministic global model ensemble to a specific NHC genesis forecast problem — probability of formation in 48 and 120 h
Thomas Galarneau	NCAR/UCAR	Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Motion Errors in AHW