Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch First Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop

First Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop

National Hurricane Center, Miami FL, 4-6 May, 2009

Organizers: Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria, Frank Marks, Richard J. Pasch

Purpose: The purpose of this workshop is to bring together expertise in the hurricane research and operational communities in order to launch a concerted diagnostics activity to improve NHC’s numerical guidance for track, intensity and structure. This activity is meant to provide important feedback to both operational model developers for near term transition into operations and to research modelers to develop useful methods for assessing forecast quality in various phases of model development. Observations from both satellite and in situ platforms and model verification are critical to assist this effort. Contributions from these communities are critical to the success of this effort.

The diagnostics workshop was held at NHC May 4-6, 2009 in conjunction with the HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Test Workshop on May 7-8, 2009.

Attendees

Attendees

Aberson, Sim – HRD – sim.aberson@noaa.gov
Aksoy, Altug – NOAA/AOML/HRD – altug.aksoy@noaa.gov
Annane, Bachir – CIMAS/HRD – bachir.annane@noaa.gov
Avila, Lixion – NHC – lixion.a.avila@noaa.gov
Bao, Jian-Wen – ESRL – jian-wen.bao@noaa.gov
Bao, Shaowu – DTC – shaowu.bao@noaa.gov
Bernardet, Ligia – NOAA ESRL – ligia.bernardet@noaa.gov
Beven, Jack – NHC – john.l.beven@noaa.gov
Blake, Eric – NHC – eric.s.blake@noaa.gov
Brennan, Michael – NHC – michael.j.brennan@noaa.gov
Brown, Barbara – NCAR – bgb@ucar.edu
Cione, Joe – HRD – joe.cione@noaa.gov
DeMaria, Mark – NESDIS/STAR/RAMMB – mark.demaria@noaa.gov
Fiorino, Mike – OAR/ESRL – michael.fiorino@noaa.gov
Franklin, James – NHC – james.franklin@noaa.gov
Gall, Bob – NOAA/HFIP – robert.gall@noaa.gov
Gamache, John – AOML/HRD – john.gamache@noaa.gov
Ginis, Isaac – URI – iginis@gso.uri.edu
Gopal, S. – HRD – Sundararaman.G.Gopalakrishnan@noaa.gov
Jin, Hao – NRL – hao.jin@nrlmry.navy.mil
Jin, Yi – NRL – yi.jin@nrlmry.navy.mil
Kaplan, John – HRD – john.kaplan@noaa.gov
Kim, Hyun-Sook – EMC/NCEP – hyun.sook.kim@noaa.gov
Kimberlain, Todd – NHC – todd.kimberlain@noaa.gov
Krishnamurti, TN – FSU – tnk@io.met.fsu.edu
Kuo, Bill – NCAR/DTC – kuo@ucar.edu
Kwon, Young – EMC/NCEP – young.kwon@noaa.gov
Landsea, Chris – NHC – chris.landsea@noaa.gov
Lorsolo, Sylvie – HRD – sylvie.lorsol@noaa.gov
Maclay, Kate – CSU – maclay@cira.colostate.edu
Majumdar, Sharan – U.Miami – majuudet@rsmas.miami.edu
Marchok, Tim – GFDL – timothy.marchok@noaa.gov
Marks, Frank – AOML/HRD – frank.marks@noaa.gov
McAdie, Colin – NHC – colin.j.mcadie@noaa.gov
Nance, Louisa – NCAR – nance@ucar.edu
Nolan, David – RSMAS – dnolan@rsmas.miami.edu
Pasch, Richard – NHC – richard.j.pasch@noaa.gov
Rappaport, Ed – NHC – edward.r.rappaport@noaa.gov
Roberts, Dave – NHC – david.p.roberts@noaa.gov
Rogers, Rob – NOAA/HRD – robert.rogers@noaa.gov
Sellwood, Kathryn – HRD – kathryn.sellwood@noaa.gov
Shay, Nick – RSMAS – nshay@rsmas.miami.edu
Surgi, Naomi – EMC/NCAR/DTC – naomi.surgi@noaa.gov
Tallapragada, Vijay – EMC/NCEP – vijay.tallapragada@noaa.gov
Thiago, Quirino – HRD – thiago.quirino@noaa.gov
Tuleya, Robert – EMC/SAIC/ODV – robert.tuleya@noaa.gov
Uhlhorn, Eric – HRD – eric.uhlhorn@noaa.gov
Yablonsky, Richard – URI – ryablonsky@gso.uri.edu
Yeh, Kevin – HRD – kevin.yeh@noaa.gov
Zhang, Jun – HRD – jun.zhang@noaa.gov
Zhang, Xuejin – AOML/HRD – xuejin.zhang@noaa.gov

Presentations

Presentations

Bao: Diagnostics of the Impact of Sea Spray on Storm Structure
Brown: Verification Methods for High Resolution Model Forecasts
DeMaria: Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop – Opening Remarks
DeMaria: Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity to Large-Scale Forcing in the 2008 HWRF model
Fiorino: Tropical Cyclone Diagnostic Developments at ESRL – Tracking Does Matter…
Kim: Evaluation of Ocean Components in HWRF-HYCOM Model for Hurricane Prediction
Krishnamurti: Post Processing of Hurricane Model Forecasts
Kwon: Sensitivity of Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients (Cd and Ch) on Hurricane size and intensity of HWRF
Maclay: HWRF Model Sensitivity to Non-hydrostatic Effects
Marchok: Verification of Model Wind Structure and Rainfall Forecasts for 2008 Atlantic Storms
Pasch: Operational Considerations for Hurricane Model Diagnostics/Verification
Rogers: Convective-Scale Diagnostics
Shay: Evaluating Skill in Ocean Model Parameterizations: Taylor Diagrams
Sundar & Quirino: Advanced Post-Processing, Analysis & Display System for High Resolution HWRF-X system
Surgi: Hurricane Diagnostics/Verification Workshop Overview
Tallapragada: Operational Hurricane Model Diagnostics at EMC
Tuleya: Tropical Cyclone Models at Landfall
Yablonsky: Diagnostics for the Ocean Model Component of Coupled Hurricane Models

Agenda

Agenda

Monday, 4 May 2009

0830-0900: Continental breakfast
0900-0930: Welcome and opening remarks, purpose of the workshop, goals (Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria)
0930-1000: Operational Considerations for hurricane model diagnostics/verification (Richard Pasch, TPC/NHC)
1000-1030: Operational hurricane model diagnostics at EMC (Vijay Tallapragada, NCEP/EMC)
1030-1100: Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity to Large-Scale Forcing in the 2008 HWRF model (Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR & Brian McNoldy, CIRA/CSU)
1100-1130: Hydrostatic vs Non-hydrostatic HWRF Energy Budget Sensitivity (Kate Mclay, CIRA/CSU)
1130-0100: LUNCH
0100-0130: Verification of model wind structure and rainfall forecasts for 2008 ATL storms (Tim Marchok, OAR/GFDL)
0130-0200: Tropical cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL — tracking does matter! (Mike Fiorino, OAR/ESRL)
0200-0230: The sensitivity of surface fluxes on HWRF track and intensity forecasts (Young Kwon, NCEP/EMC)
0230-0300: Verification techniques for high resolution model forecasts (Barb Brown, JNT/NCAR)
0300-0315: BREAK
0315-0345: Diagnostics for high resolution hurricane model (Gopal Sundar, AOML/HRD & Thiago Quirino, AOML/HRD)
0345-0415: Convective scale diagnostics (Rob Rogers/AOML/HRD)
0415-0445: Multi-model diagnostics (Krish/FSU )
0445-0530: Discussion

Tuesday, 5 May 2009

0830-0900: Continental breakfast
0900-0930: Uncertainties in hurricane intensity estimation by the operational aircraft reconnaissance (Fuqing Zhang, PSU;, Meng Zhang, Juan Fang and Sim Aberson, AOML/HRD)
0930-1000: Diagnostics of the impact of sea spray on storm structure (Jian-Wen Bao, OAR/ESRL)
1000-1030: Land surface coupling in hurricane models and diagnostics for land falling hurricanes (Robert Tuleya, SAIC/EMC/ODU)
1030-1100: Assessing Sensitivities of Ocean Model Parameterizations: Taylor Diagrams (Nick Shay/RSMAS)
1100-1130: Diagnostics for the ocean model component of coupled hurricane models (Rich Yablonsky & Isaac Ginis, URI)
1130-1200: Ocean parameters for hurricane prediction and diagnostics for HWRF-HYCOM simulations (Hyun-Sook Kim, MMB/EMC)
1200-0130: LUNCH
0130-0300: Discussion * (see list of topics)
0300-0330: BREAK
0330-0500: Discussion * (see list of topics)

Wednesday, 6 May 2009

0830-0900: Continental breakfast
0900-1200: Discuss recommendations / Wrap up

*Suggested topics for discussion

1. Coordination with the OAR-NESDIS collaborative research project on dynamical and statistical hurricane model evaluation
2. Methods for sharing data and software
3. Updates to the HFIP diagnostics plan/HFIP baselines
4. Vortex tracking algorithm(s)
5. Required output for diagnostic analyses
6. Project reporting and collaboration

Summary and Recommendations

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