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First Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop

National Hurricane Center, Miami FL, 4-6 May, 2009

Organizers: Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria, Frank Marks, Richard J. Pasch

Purpose: The purpose of this workshop is to bring together expertise in the hurricane research and operational communities in order to launch a concerted diagnostics activity to improve NHC’s numerical guidance for track, intensity and structure. This activity is meant to provide important feedback to both operational model developers for near term transition into operations and to research modelers to develop useful methods for assessing forecast quality in various phases of model development. Observations from both satellite and in situ platforms and model verification are critical to assist this effort. Contributions from these communities are critical to the success of this effort.

The diagnostics workshop was held at NHC May 4-6, 2009 in conjunction with the HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Test Workshop on May 7-8, 2009.

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Monday, 4 May 2009

  • 0830-0900: Continental breakfast
  • 0900-0930: Welcome and opening remarks, purpose of the workshop, goals (Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria)
  • 0930-1000: Operational Considerations for hurricane model diagnostics/verification (Richard Pasch, TPC/NHC)
  • 1000-1030: Operational hurricane model diagnostics at EMC (Vijay Tallapragada, NCEP/EMC)
  • 1030-1100: Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity to Large-Scale Forcing in the 2008 HWRF model (Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR & Brian McNoldy, CIRA/CSU)
  • 1100-1130: Hydrostatic vs Non-hydrostatic HWRF Energy Budget Sensitivity (Kate Mclay, CIRA/CSU)
  • 1130-0100: LUNCH
  • 0100-0130: Verification of model wind structure and rainfall forecasts for 2008 ATL storms (Tim Marchok, OAR/GFDL)
  • 0130-0200: Tropical cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL — tracking does matter! (Mike Fiorino, OAR/ESRL)
  • 0200-0230: The sensitivity of surface fluxes on HWRF track and intensity forecasts (Young Kwon, NCEP/EMC)
  • 0230-0300: Verification techniques for high resolution model forecasts (Barb Brown, JNT/NCAR)
  • 0300-0315: BREAK
  • 0315-0345: Diagnostics for high resolution hurricane model (Gopal Sundar, AOML/HRD & Thiago Quirino, AOML/HRD)
  • 0345-0415: Convective scale diagnostics (Rob Rogers/AOML/HRD)
  • 0415-0445: Multi-model diagnostics (Krish/FSU )
  • 0445-0530: Discussion

Tuesday, 5 May 2009

  • 0830-0900: Continental breakfast
  • 0900-0930: Uncertainties in hurricane intensity estimation by the operational aircraft reconnaissance (Fuqing Zhang, PSU;, Meng Zhang, Juan Fang and Sim Aberson, AOML/HRD)
  • 0930-1000: Diagnostics of the impact of sea spray on storm structure (Jian-Wen Bao, OAR/ESRL)
  • 1000-1030: Land surface coupling in hurricane models and diagnostics for land falling hurricanes (Robert Tuleya, SAIC/EMC/ODU)
  • 1030-1100: Assessing Sensitivities of Ocean Model Parameterizations: Taylor Diagrams (Nick Shay/RSMAS)
  • 1100-1130: Diagnostics for the ocean model component of coupled hurricane models (Rich Yablonsky & Isaac Ginis, URI)
  • 1130-1200: Ocean parameters for hurricane prediction and diagnostics for HWRF-HYCOM simulations (Hyun-Sook Kim, MMB/EMC)
  • 1200-0130: LUNCH
  • 0130-0300: Discussion * (see list of topics)
  • 0300-0330: BREAK
  • 0330-0500: Discussion * (see list of topics)

Wednesday, 6 May 2009

  • 0830-0900: Continental breakfast
  • 0900-1200: Discuss recommendations / Wrap up

*Suggested topics for discussion

  • 1. Coordination with the OAR-NESDIS collaborative research project on dynamical and statistical hurricane model evaluation
  • 2. Methods for sharing data and software
  • 3. Updates to the HFIP diagnostics plan/HFIP baselines
  • 4. Vortex tracking algorithm(s)
  • 5. Required output for diagnostic analyses
  • 6. Project reporting and collaboration