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Stream 1 Regional Hurricane Model Diagnostics Planning Meeting

9.30 AM to 4 PM Monday, November 8, 2010 1st Floor Conference Room, AOML, Virginia Key, Miami, FL PurposeThis meeting was held to discuss how the efforts of the HFIP Applications Development and Diagnostic (ADD) Team can be adapted to better assist NCEP/EMC with the operational HWRF model bias. The meeting was held on November 8th, 2010 at the AOML Hurricane Research Division. The current work of the ADD team was reviewed, followed by a discussion of results that are ready for transition in the short term (in time for use for the 2011 HWRF pre-implementation tests) and the longer term plans. A set of topics will be compiled by EMC for use in setting the FY11 HFIP ADD Team milestones and deliverables. A small working group will be formed to help with the transition to EMC.

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Attendees

  • Altug Aksoy – NOAA/AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Sim Aberson – HRD – Contact
  • Bob Atlas – AOML – Contact
  • Jian-Wen Bao – ESRL/PSD – Contact
  • Joe Bartosik – NOAA/OAR/PPE – Contact
  • Morris Bender – GFDL – Contact
  • Mrinal Biswas – FSU – Contact
  • Lisa Bucci – SAIC/NASA/NOAA/AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Jan-Huey Chen – GFDL – Contact
  • Mark DeMaria – NOAA/NESDIS/STAR – Contact
  • James Doyle – NRL – Contact
  • Yalin Fan – GFDL – Contact
  • Mike Fiorino – ESRL – Contact
  • Bob Gall – NOAA/OST – Contact
  • Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan – NOAA/AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Wallace Hogsett – NHC – Contact
  • Yi Jin – NRL – Contact
  • John Kaplan – NOAA/HRD – Contact
  • Todd Kimberlain – NHC – Contact
  • Young Kwon – EMC – Contact
  • Sylvie Lorsolo – NOAA/HRD/UM – Contact
  • Tim Marchok – NOAA/GFDL – Contact
  • Frank Marks – NOAA/AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Jon Moskaitis – NRL – Contact
  • Shirley Murillo – AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Kate Musgrave – CIRA/CSU – Contact
  • Louisa Nance – NCAR – Contact
  • Richard Pasch – NHC – Contact
  • Thiago Quirino – AOML – Contact
  • Ed Rappaport – NOAA/NHC – Contact
  • Carolyn Reynolds – NRL – Contact
  • Rob Rogers – NOAA/AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Kathryn Sellwood – AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Naomi Surgi – OST – Contact
  • Vijay Tallapragada – EMC – Contact
  • Tomi Vukicevic – AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Paul Willis – HRD/CIMAS – Contact
  • Kevin Yeh – AOML – Contact
  • Jun Zhang – NOAA/AOML/HRD – Contact
  • Xuejin Zhang – AOML/HRD – Contact

Agenda

  • 09:30-09:35 Welcome, Bob Atlas
  • 09:35-09:40 Opening remarks and Introduction, V. Tallapragada, EMC
  • 09:40-10:00 Existing diagnostic capabilities and further Stream 1 Requirements, V. Tallapragada (PDF)
  • 10:00-10:15 Stream 1 Initialization Diagnostics, W. Hogsett, NHC (PDF)
  • 10:15-10:30 Summary of stream 2 diagnostic capabilities, M. DeMaria, NESDIS (PDF)
  • 10:30-10:45 Morning Break
  • 10:45-11:00 Diagnosing systematic errors in HWRF, T. Krishnamurti, FSU (presented by M.K. Biswas) (PDF)
  • 11:00-11:15 Diagnostics for the ARW, R. Torn, SUNYA (PDF)
  • 11:15-11:30 Summary of diagnostics for COAMPS-TC, J. Doyle, NRL (PDF)
  • 11:30-11:35 Overview of discussion topics, V. Tallapragada
  • 11:35-12:00 Discussion Topic 1: Rapid Response Team for real time support (Moderators: M. DeMaria and V. Tallapragada)
  • 12:00-13:30 Lunch Break
  • 13:30-14:25 Discussion Topic 2: Short term plan to assist 2011 HWRF implementation (Moderator: V.Tallapragada) a) Post processing vs. run time diagnostics, b) Expected test sample , c) Data formats, d) Comparison with observations (in situ, satellite) and d) timeline (PDF)
  • 14:25-14:40 Model Diagnostics efforts at HRD, Frank Marks, AOML (PDF)
  • 14:40-15:30 Discussion Topic 3: Long Term plans for operational model diagnostic support (Stream 1) and continued Stream 2 development (Moderators: M. DeMaria and V. Tallapragada) a) Models to be included, b) Scope and agencies involved, c) relationship to stream 2 diagnostics, d) Observational databases e) Software tools and languages, f) diagnostics tool box, and g) community outreach (PDF)
  • 15:30-16:00 Wrap up and Next Steps

Action Items

Three primary action items resulted from the discussion during the meeting as follows.

  1. EMC will create a list of tasks related to the operational HWRF testing and implementation that the HFIP teams can contribute to. This list will be used to help set priorities for the ADD team milestones for FY11. A preliminary version is available from “Draft FY11 HWRF Task List
  2. A small group will be established to assist with transitioning HFIP stream 2 diagnostic developments to stream 1. The ADD team co-leads (M. DeMaria and E. Rappaport) will provide oversight for this group. A preliminary list of representatives include the following.
    • EMC – Vijay Tallapragada
    • NHC – Richard Pasch and Wallace Hogsett
    • NESDIS – Mark DeMaria
    • HRD – Tomi Vukicevic, Thiago Quirino, Sim Aberson
    • NRL – Jim Doyle
    • GFDL – Morris Bender and Tim Marchok
    • ESRL – Shaowu Bao
    • SUNYA – Ryan Torn
    • DTC – TBD
  3. A method to help monitor the operational hurricane models during the season will be established for 2011. One possibility is to appoint a small group to keep track of the model behavior in near real time and to perform routine diagnostic calculations. Unusual cases should be documented for more careful study and evaluation. This effort will also be coordinated through the ADD team.