Principle Investigator: Jason Dunion, University of Miami/CIMAS – NOAA/HRD
Co-PIs: John Kaplan, NOAA/HRD and Andrea Schumacher, CSU/CIRA
Co-Investigator: Joshua Cossuth, Florida State University
Collaborator: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL
The main goal of this project is to develop a disturbance-following tropical cyclone (TC) genesis index (TCGI) to provide forecasters with an objective tool for identifying the 0-48hr and 0-120hr probability of TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. Predictors from a variety of sources were tested and potentially integrated into this new scheme and included Dvorak T-number / CI value estimates, environmental and convective parameters currently used in the NESDIS TC Formation Probability (TCFP) product (fixed grid scheme), environmental parameters from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) that are relevant to TC genesis, and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals from microwave satellites. Six robust TCGI predictors were identified and have been incorporated into an experimental real-time version of TCGI.
The proposal team evaluated the performance of the scheme for several 2013 tropical disturbances in the Atlantic and made the TCGI code and output available to NHC forecasters on 11 September 2013. NHC forecasters are currently evaluating TCGI for possible transition to operations in the future. The project final report can be found here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/11-13reports/Final_Dunion_JHT13.pdf.
An experimental version of the TCGI is currently running at CIRA/CSU (Atlantic only):