Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

2009 Test With the GPCE Version of the MC Model

MC Model Versions

To evaluate the GPCE version of the MC probability model, a subset of the Atlantic, East and West Pacific cases from the 2009 season were re-run. These cases were run with the operational MC Model and the experimental version where the track error distributions are a function of the GPCE estimate.

Case Selection

For the 2009 GPCE evaluation, named storm cases with at least a 12-hour verification were run. The links below show the results for each of the three basins.

Evaluation Methods

The GPCE model will be evaluated by two methods. First the 34, 50 and 64 kt wind probabilities for each case will be generated with the operational and GPCE models on a 0.25 deg. grid surrounding the forecast tracks. The 0-120hr cumulative probabilities for the operational and GPCE versions are shown below in the model results section. Difference plots will be added as well. Second, the probabilities will be evaluated using standard metrics for probabilistic forecasts.