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Ensemble Tropical Cyclogenesis Index

Principal Investigator: Alan Brammer, CSU/CIRA

Co-Is: Dustin Grogan (University at Albany) and Andrea Schumacher (CSU/CIRA)

Collaborator: Jason Dunion (University of Miami/CIMAS – NOAA/HRD), John Knaff (NOAA/STAR), Chris Slocum (NOAA/STAR)

Funding: NOAA-NWS-NWSPO-2020-2006290; www.weather.gov/sti/cyclone

 

Overview:

This project seeks to develop a combined statistical–dynamical ensemble-based TC genesis probability forecast model, addressing HFIP priority 1 by developing techniques for TC forecast guidance, as well as developing process-based diagnostics and statistically post-processing ensemble output. The proposed project will extend the existing operational TCGI (Dunion et al. 2013, 2019) in the following ways: (i) utilize input from global ensemble forecasts; (ii) run TC genesis forecasts for pre-genesis disturbances across all basins; (iii) produce products to visualize and diagnose TC genesis forecast uncertainty. The project will run the experimental algorithm in an operational-like environment in real-time providing forecasts for the 2021 and 2022 seasons achieving readiness level 7 and minimizing the cost of operational transition in the future.

Project Status:

03/01/2021 — The project team has expanded the invest dataset to include recent years and global disturbances.  An experimental version of the ensemble based model has been set up to run in realtime for 2021.  Graphical outputs will be linked below during the 2021 North Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricane seasons. 

Data:

No derived output data is available to share publicly at this time.  

Existing TCGI output and information available at: https://rammb2.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical-cyclones/tc_genesis_index/

GEFS forecast data are available from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs

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