Principal Investigator: Alan Brammer, CSU/CIRA
Co-Is: Dustin Grogan (University at Albany) and Andrea Schumacher (CSU/CIRA)
Collaborator: Jason Dunion (University of Miami/CIMAS – NOAA/HRD), John Knaff (NOAA/STAR), Chris Slocum (NOAA/STAR)
Funding: NOAA-NWS-NWSPO-2020-2006290; www.weather.gov/sti/cyclone
This project seeks to develop a combined statistical–dynamical ensemble-based TC genesis probability forecast model, addressing HFIP priority 1 by developing techniques for TC forecast guidance, as well as developing process-based diagnostics and statistically post-processing ensemble output. The proposed project will extend the existing operational TCGI (Dunion et al. 2013, 2019) in the following ways: (i) utilize input from global ensemble forecasts; (ii) run TC genesis forecasts for pre-genesis disturbances across all basins; (iii) produce products to visualize and diagnose TC genesis forecast uncertainty. The project will run the experimental algorithm in an operational-like environment in real-time providing forecasts for the 2021 and 2022 seasons achieving readiness level 7 and minimizing the cost of operational transition in the future.
Existing TCGI output and information available at: https://rammb2.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical-cyclones/tc_genesis_index/
GEFS forecast data are available from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs