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Ensemble Global Genesis Index for Tropical Cyclones

Principal Investigator: Alan Brammer, CSU/CIRA

Co-Is: Dustin Grogan (University at Albany) and Andrea Schumacher (CSU/CIRA)

Collaborator: Jason Dunion (University of Miami/CIMAS – NOAA/HRD), John Knaff (NOAA/STAR), Chris Slocum (NOAA/STAR)

Funding: NOAA-NWS-NWSPO-2020-2006290; www.weather.gov/sti/cyclone

 

Overview:

This project seeks to develop a combined statistical–dynamical ensemble-based TC genesis probability forecast model, addressing HFIP priority 1 by developing techniques for TC forecast guidance, as well as developing process-based diagnostics and statistically post-processing ensemble output. The proposed project will extend the existing operational TCGI (Dunion et al. 2013, 2019) in the following ways: (i) utilize input from global ensemble forecasts; (ii) run TC genesis forecasts for pre-genesis disturbances across all basins; (iii) produce products to visualize and diagnose TC genesis forecast uncertainty. The project will run the experimental algorithm in an operational-like environment in real-time providing forecasts for the 2021 and 2022 seasons achieving readiness level 7 and minimizing the cost of operational transition in the future.

Realtime Data:

Realtime output for Atlantic basin
Realtime output for East Pacific basin
Realtime output for West Pacific basin

Project Status:

  • 03/01/2021 — The project team has expanded the invest dataset to include recent years and global disturbances.  An experimental version of the ensemble based model has been set up to run in realtime for 2021.  Graphical outputs will be linked below during the 2021 North Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricane seasons.
  • 06/01/2021 — Work has started on evaluating improvements to the statistical model used. Linear and non-linear ML methods are being compared against the existing linear statistical model to evaluate gains in skill.
  • 09/01/2021 — New ensemble graphics have been developed to display the area of potential genesis. These have been run in almost realtime for EP and AL invests.
  • 11/16/2021 — Progress on the project was presented at the HFIP annual meeting.
    Presentation linked below.
  • 5/12/2022 — An overview of the project was presented at AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorlogy abstract .
  • 5/15/2022 — Realtime data for all global basins started to be available online. These still depend on an initial fix, so some early invest times remain missing.

Projection Presentations:

  1. Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index and Global Ensemble Forecasts: Prediction for the Atlantic and East Pacific Basins from 2018 to 2020 — 2022 AMS Annual — Grogan et. al.
  2. Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index and Global Ensemble Forecasts: Expanding to Global Basins and Evaluation of Real-Time 2021 Forecasts — 2022 AMS Annual — Brammer et. al.
  3. 2021 HFIP Annual Meeting
  4. 2022 AMS Tropical Meeting

Data:

Existing TCGI output and information available at: https://rammb2.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical-cyclones/tc_genesis_index/

GEFS forecast data are available from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs

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