Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

00:00:00:08 – 00:00:15:11
Speaker 1
Welcome to today’s visit Satellite Chat. We’re going to review the significant heavy rainfall event that occurred over the southeast and, this past weekend. So to lead us off, first we’ll go to Ed’s Oak, down in Boulder.

00:00:15:13 – 00:00:35:18
Speaker 2
Okay. Thanks, Dan. I just want to share a couple of, images. One is, something that Russ Schumacher, CSU professor there put together. This is in millimeters. Just to give you an idea of the rainfall over this period. This area in this dark color, there were there were locations over two feet of rain.

00:00:35:18 – 00:00:56:05
Speaker 2
But what’s interesting that he put together this is, points exceeding a thousand year reoccurrence, recurrence. And this is, you can see quite a large area. And then down below are the, forecasts issued by WPC, for 72 hour totals. These were issued on the second, and they’re pretty good, pretty good forecasts that you can see.

00:00:56:05 – 00:01:14:14
Speaker 2
They actually had some, thousand year predictions as well. So we have a lot of stuff. I just wanted to show one thing. Let me go to this. This is just something I threw together our neighborhood just to give you the overview. If you if you weren’t, Hey, and you need to show your screen. I thought I did.

00:01:14:14 – 00:01:31:24
Speaker 2
Did I do I mean, I moved back to my other screen, or I can see I see a screen. I’ve seen it coming through. I got it, okay. Let’s see. O’Brien. All right. Well, then, Brian can’t see it, but that’s the way it goes, I guess. So here’s, here’s Thursday morning. I’ll just step through these.

00:01:31:24 – 00:02:08:00
Speaker 2
These are just GFS analyzes the the dark. The yellow is, 500 millibars and then the, MSL from the GFS and cyan and, the starts on 12 Thursday and we’ll just go and you notice the big players of course were this upper level low, that deepens in the southeast. And then of course, walking off to the east here, but and then a nice long fetch with this strong high pressure that moved up over to, it’s over to the to the north of New England, sets up this deep easterly flow and the frontal zone all all coming together over South Carolina.

00:02:08:03 – 00:02:27:24
Speaker 2
Here’s, here’s actually these are every six hours. I’m sorry. Here’s 1230 Friday. And then as we go through the day Friday and now you can see and this uses conventional this is the conventional water vapor image that you get on your Awacs. Now we’re going to see a lot of different water vapor images today. And then you can see things really start getting cranked up here Friday night.

00:02:27:27 – 00:02:48:24
Speaker 2
They’re all focusing in really incredibly. And of course walking was another whole nother issue. And how it interacted with this upper low, but, we can see walking starting to move out finally on Saturday. This is now late Saturday going into Sunday. Pretty unusual, I think, to have such a deep upper level low so far south.

00:02:48:27 – 00:03:04:14
Speaker 2
And that very slowly moves up. Here we are late Sunday and then, Monday, finally moving off up the coast. So, and that’s all I have for now, if you, unless you want to see the trajectories. But I think we should look at the other stuff first, don’t you think?

00:03:04:16 – 00:03:29:05
Speaker 1
Yeah. Let’s, turn it over to, Sheldon Cassel. And then at this time, and, Sheldon, worked at the satellite analysis brand, part of Mazdas for a long time and recently retired. So, in retirement here, he’s, looking at, he’s been looking very carefully at this event here. So I’ll turn it over to, Sheldon.

00:03:29:07 – 00:03:55:03
Speaker 3
Okay. Just so that, some of you who don’t know who I am, I used to work for salary analysis branch, and that is, for a 36 year. It was a little bit picture of me. Let’s go to the let’s go to the good stuff. I got very interested in this system, last week, you know, whenever you hear that there’s a hurricane in the western Atlantic.

00:03:57:09 – 00:04:33:23
Speaker 3
Peaks anybody’s interest, especially along the East coast, especially this, summer, being that, we had El Nino and, a lot of disturbances, couldn’t get going, but, Watkins certainly, really got going, at the end of September in the western Atlantic, so I decided, from a kind of a fan of layered water to an experimental product that’s been, being produced experimentally by Sierra, for the last three years, through, Grant, by NASA.

00:04:33:26 – 00:05:10:17
Speaker 3
And, hopefully it will someday become a, operational product. And, everybody, hey, with, two systems, in the next few years. So, I like really analyzing the, the layered, simple water product and especially the 700 to finally, go over a level, because that’s where, with the current enhancement color enhancement scheme that we have, you can, see a lot of the moisture plumes, atmospheric rivers that are in the atmosphere, especially at that level.

00:05:11:03 – 00:05:42:00
Speaker 3
And hopefully, for the other layers, that are produced, at the surface, the 858, 50 to 700, and 500 to 300, different types of color enhancements would be helpful to, to show the water vapor plumes at those particular levels. But in this case, the 700 to 500, is the best for the particular current color enhancement that we had.

00:05:42:10 – 00:06:12:13
Speaker 3
This is back on September 29th. The, 1530 UTC, image of the product is produced every three hours, with polar orbiting, microwave. Yeah. Data. And, the nice thing is that you can see, the water vapor based over the land and over the ocean areas. And, I like that with this color enhancement, you can see the concentrations of moisture very well.

00:06:12:16 – 00:06:41:23
Speaker 3
So what I did was I analyzed the various pools of moisture and where they may be affecting, toward. And, I’ve been looking at this, imagery for the last three years and never really had I been able to see, two sets of two plumes coming together and then both of those coming together again over the Mid-Atlantic states and, the morning of September 29th.

00:06:41:25 – 00:07:25:05
Speaker 3
In addition, there was a longer face plume from the eastern Pacific that was coming cross-country and into the Great Lakes and, northern New England, which was kind of, along where, frontal system was coming down as well. So you had all this moisture, coming together kind of over the southeast in the Mid-Atlantic, and, eventually working its way into New England as a front was pressing down there and, you had the remains of an intense 99 now, which had produced, tremendous amounts of rains on September 27th and 28 and into September 29th along the Gulf Coast.

00:07:25:18 – 00:08:06:05
Speaker 3
I think I saw one report that, on mobile, 6 p.m. on September 27th at one point had a 10th of an inch per minute, falling in that area. So and this was kind of the set up, all this moisture in the southeast, for, the event to come. And just to give you an idea of what eventually happened, up in the northeast with all those moisture plumes coming together and coming into the, the northeast, there was quite a bit of flooding and too had been left very dry, right or dry, I believe, summer up in the northeast.

00:08:06:05 – 00:08:29:23
Speaker 3
And, so, it was a pretty good event for a day or so up there and caused, quite a bit of flooding and, may have also been a contributing factor to maybe the, the slide that they have up ad in Vermont that affected the, the Amtrak train a couple of days ago. That’s just conjecture, but just a kind of a thought, involved.

00:08:31:04 – 00:08:57:27
Speaker 3
Okay. So, and this kind of waste was the blended DPW moisture, on the 29th, you could see the, large area of moisture with walking and a long stretch of moisture fetch from the Atlantic. And then you had a separate moisture plume from the Yucatan central America, or into the southeast, into the Mid-Atlantic states.

00:08:57:29 – 00:09:15:25
Speaker 3
And, I kind of when I kind of that at that point on the 29th was comparing it with the wanted to compare with the the moisture from Sandy at the same latitude as it up to two tropical systems and so.

00:09:16:02 – 00:09:23:21
Speaker 2
Excellent. Yep. Yeah. It’s Tony. Hey here you earlier you use an A like a layer for civil water. This is a blended.

00:09:23:21 – 00:09:28:19
Speaker 3
So this is the blended. This is total atmospheric moisture where I.

00:09:28:22 – 00:09:35:21
Speaker 2
Really needed more than microwave right now. Can you give us a quick snapshot of what goes into this product?

00:09:35:21 – 00:10:15:28
Speaker 3
Okay. What goes into it is over the Conus. It’s, for the most part, GPS. Yes. With, co-founder and the Mears DPW overland, filling in over over the, over the Conus areas of the U.S areas. Where is that or where the ocean is, microwave, as semis? No, through and made up, satellites that are, providing the water over the, the ocean areas that pretty much was the case, in 2012 with, with Sandy.

00:10:15:28 – 00:10:58:24
Speaker 3
So it’s, same similar type of information. It was going into both, blended DPW products and, I like comparing, past, past cases with current cases just to kind of get a feel for, for the, for the difference in the types of storms. And so we know Sandy was a different type of storm that’s been working and, well, clean and all this tremendous amounts of, of, of moisture and over and had they were also was quite a bit of moisture already, from the Yucatan up into the Mid-Atlantic, where Sandy was or had all this very, very high moisture around it.

00:10:59:02 – 00:11:27:10
Speaker 3
But as you can see, much drier over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic and, into the northeast. So, a completely different, type of weather pattern, between walking and, and Sandy and, just, you know, it just wanted to see what it, what both looked like at the same latitude, where, where they were just to kind of, you know, get up, get a little bit better, feel for,

00:11:27:12 – 00:11:56:06
Speaker 3
What? What came by my tried to, I mean, this was this is the blended total. Was water percent a normal product? Again, a comparison. And as you can see with walking, you already had a very, very high percentage of moisture from the North Carolina north and northeast into, New England, whereas with Sandy, the very high percentage of the moisture was was right around Sandy.

00:11:56:12 – 00:12:20:00
Speaker 3
And the, the percentage of moisture, was was quite a bit less, in the, on the East Coast. So it’s just kind of a comparison with that. Okay. October 1st, was interesting. Because, it was this is more of an analysis type of, thing for me.

00:12:21:01 – 00:12:48:09
Speaker 3
Along with the moisture, there was quite a bit of moisture that was streaming from the, western Atlantic, long stretch, into the western Atlantic and up into southern New England watches. Moisture, lift in northward. And then you still had moisture from the Gulf and now from, from the remains or from tropical, system Marty in the eastern Pacific.

00:12:48:09 – 00:13:12:01
Speaker 3
So you had all three kind of three long stretch streams of moisture. Into, the southeast and, in the western into the western lands. Well, it you had a couple waves and you can see the wave by the anti-psychotic bulges in the 700 to 500 millibar, to the water layer, to some water product.

00:13:12:12 – 00:13:45:22
Speaker 3
The one wave, up here in, northern New England and another wave, down here in the, Kentucky Tennessee area. And you had this deepening trough, deepening trough, primarily because you had this building ridge in the west. And, a couple interesting ideas to also take note of this that, that forecasters probably do this, but they may not be doing it as cognitively as they really should.

00:13:45:29 – 00:13:56:28
Speaker 3
If the big picture, the things that are two, maybe as much as 3000 miles away that are going to have a big effect on a coming event, and in this case, you had this building.

00:13:56:28 – 00:13:57:21
Speaker 2
Ridge.

00:13:57:23 – 00:14:38:03
Speaker 3
In the, in the west that was going to help to deepen this trough. That right at this time was over the middle Mississippi Valley and going moving into the Tennessee Valley. And then you had this, area this big troughing this in the Atlantic that was, spreading itself west and southwest, with which, eventually a day or so later would have an effect on what came and move it a little more south westward and allow it to spoil for a couple of days over of, over the, over the Bahamas and really, caused havoc there and, also have an impact on that.

00:14:39:01 – 00:15:06:14
Speaker 3
Ship that, that that was, moving through that area and the loss of life with that. Okay. Next slide, the next evening or the next day. Zero is the October 2nd. I did other analysis. This ridge in the West, had really built up pretty well over, the, Intermountain Interactive’s area, big ridge.

00:15:06:17 – 00:15:30:03
Speaker 3
The trough had, really gotten it back together at the low, over the Tennessee Valley. You had dry air over the upper Great Lakes, for northern New England, but mostly eastern Canada. That was kind of coming around the upper level low on the back side to Arkansas, lower Mississippi Valley and into the, the, north central Gulf.

00:15:30:05 – 00:16:12:20
Speaker 3
And you had still moisture from Mali coming into the southeast. You had moisture from one key coming northward, and then you had this long fetch of moisture all the way out mid Lanark that was also coming in to the moisture that was lifting northward from Keene. And, kind of continuing to moisten up, all the layers of the atmosphere over the southeast and you know, continue to set the stage for the event, the really big event that would occur, mostly during the period of October 2nd and October 5th.

00:16:13:06 – 00:16:42:21
Speaker 3
So but the other, interesting analysis is that you have these dry areas that are expanding west of the Atlantic dry area over the, the, the U.S., basically the eastern all over Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. And you have a kind of a boat going on, and you have a block to the south of walking where you have relatively low minimum observable water in the, low to mid levels.

00:16:42:21 – 00:17:21:19
Speaker 3
That is all blocking, looking for moving anywhere to for the next day or so. And you have all these moisture streams that are coming together and setting the stage for what would come to be, a very important and very excessive, rain event over South Carolina. Okay. Then I did a comparison. And actually the end of September, the the thought was especially with, the possibility of actually getting close to the U.S land, either from North Carolina or up to New England.

00:17:21:21 – 00:17:52:25
Speaker 3
I thought, well, maybe, maybe a comparison between the Louis and in 1996. And then I thought, well, because then it, it started to look like, maybe the storm would, would appear more eastward and not affect any part of the U.S then, in the, October, I thought maybe, maybe a comparison with Louis in 1996 would be interesting.

00:17:53:02 – 00:18:22:15
Speaker 3
Just the fact that were they were in two different areas, but they had kind of two different or two similar patterns just that really affected the Northeast and New England. Whereas walking now moisture and, different strains of moisture affecting into the southeast would be obviously affecting, South Carolina. So I put together this slide, comparison of KBW.

00:18:23:00 – 00:18:57:05
Speaker 3
Obviously there was no blended t bw back in 1996. So all we had really in 1996 was SMI. And, right beside it, the, the amounts of rainfall with a very slow moving cold front, that was moving to the northeast and, and New England especially, then and compared it with, what came from, moisture advection and, different areas of, of moisture and moisture feeds into what Kane that, was into, South Carolina.

00:18:57:06 – 00:19:27:14
Speaker 3
So and pattern recognition is an extremely powerful tool. For, for those who are, who have experienced, these types of storms over the years and have been able to, save cases like this in the past. And it’s been a very valuable tool to play as a satellite meteorologist because, it allows me to go back and just kind of take a look and compare with the other types of storms.

00:19:28:04 – 00:19:37:01
Speaker 3
Groups. Okay. Any questions there, Barry?

00:19:37:03 – 00:19:43:15
Speaker 2
Hey, Sheldon, this is Schubert. Yeah. Congratulations. By the way, you enjoying your your retirement here?

00:19:43:22 – 00:19:44:06
Speaker 3
Yes.

00:19:44:12 – 00:19:49:07
Speaker 2
All right. But, yeah, we keep pulling you back into this. Well, I.

00:19:49:09 – 00:19:55:15
Speaker 3
I really like it. And, you know, maybe there’s a stick out there that, Yeah. Okay. So.

00:19:55:19 – 00:20:19:17
Speaker 2
So, you know, I just found that the discussion about that rainfall to be inconsistent across the news media, you know, was it. Well, I mean, was it not locking? I mean, do you do you think we’ll get a, I guess a message, camped around that that gave a gives a coherent reason for that rainfall?

00:20:20:03 – 00:20:46:15
Speaker 3
No, because I don’t think, the media understands, where moisture, is coming from. And, I don’t think, they have the, the imagery or images to show on TV and, and connect with the public as to as to what is really and, what was really involved in this storm? None. But you can go back to September 25th.

00:20:46:15 – 00:21:13:27
Speaker 3
There was a pretty heavy rain event over South Carolina, and that that seeded the ground, so to speak. I’m not sure what the rainfall was like over the summer over South Carolina, but, and many flood events like the North Carolina flood event and in 1999, when they had two tropical cyclones, you had two big heavy rain events on top of a pretty wet summer.

00:21:14:00 – 00:21:49:10
Speaker 3
But in this case, there were antecedent conditions, especially a week beforehand. And that that moisture and also the moisture coming from Maudie in the eastern Pacific and, the, the moisture along the Gulf Coast with that, in 99 l late in September. And then what changed? Moisture more and keep stalling and allowing more of its moisture to to eventually get fed in and and the combination of the upper level low and the trough and everything feeding into South Carolina.

00:21:49:25 – 00:22:11:21
Speaker 3
That’s that’s just that’s a lot of information. To put to sea and over a period of time to see in, in satellite imagery and things like that. And it’s even more, more information that it, that it’s very difficult to explain to the, to the public and things like that. But it’s not just what case moisture.

00:22:11:21 – 00:22:30:28
Speaker 3
But there was a lot of other moisture streams that went into the Sudan. And and from what I see when you get these big catastrophic heavy rain events, it’s more than just, one moisture feed that, that, that, that, that, you make for a catastrophic event.

00:22:31:00 – 00:22:57:07
Speaker 2
So, so is it fair to say that while every, you know, the you much had is crowing about its its ability to move what came to the east that that this, this forecast really wasn’t handled very well by any set of models. I mean, we saw all kinds of things going up. And, but the cut off flow and the excess of rain I had, I hadn’t seen any model really show that.

00:22:57:09 – 00:23:31:15
Speaker 3
Yeah. Hey, guys, think this was an incredibly complicated system, and, Yeah, it’s, I, the, the computer models have to have and be able to ingest all their older the moisture and, data and things like that. And sometimes they throw out some satellite data that goes into models. I don’t know how the Europeans do it, but I know that, if the American models, will, occasionally throw out some, satellite data, is it a model?

00:23:31:22 – 00:24:07:02
Speaker 3
Plus, you had you had weather systems that affected this whole system that were two maybe as much as 3000 miles away. You had, what was going on in the Central Atlantic? You had what was going on with that ridge building in the, in the west, that had the effect downstream that caused the upper level low to, to, to develop over the southeast and then turn the system around the central Atlantic, push, well, clean the further south west and around with the storm over the Bahamas for a couple days.

00:24:07:05 – 00:24:36:04
Speaker 3
And, that allowed more moisture to set up over the southeast so that when you had these forcing systems like the upper level low in the southeast, and the moisture feed into that Carolina continuing and continuing to deepen that moisture over there, above everybody had South Carolina, good. For the days leading up to, October 1st, October 2nd when really heavy rain started.

00:24:37:24 – 00:25:05:03
Speaker 3
That’s that’s when, literally the, that was the straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak, for that, for this event to really get going and, and and it didn’t it didn’t hurt that this funnel, Dan, that it caused some flooding up in the northeast, back late in the month of September and early, Cobra October 1st and caught some flooding up there came settling down into the, into the region.

00:25:05:03 – 00:25:15:25
Speaker 3
And, that two was a point of convergence as well that helped. Causes catastrophic event. Hey, Sheldon. Yep.

00:25:15:27 – 00:25:40:12
Speaker 2
And Tony and, we’ve got a few, sir, that were either directly in or, very close to this event, and it might be worth, they wouldn’t mind saying a few things about what it was like, from really literally been, under the gun as this event unfolded. Frank or Steve with or. Mark, would you guys mind saying a couple things about what it was like?

00:25:40:12 – 00:25:57:21
Speaker 2
Yeah, actually, I, I was going to I was going to jump in and, try to answer Bill’s question. In terms of the, the models, the other models were hitting on the fact that we were going to get a heavy rain event by, Thursday. I mean, not just a heavy rain event, but an excessive rain event.

00:25:58:15 – 00:26:24:13
Speaker 2
After Thursday, I was involved in kind of IBS stuff, so I wasn’t paying close attention to the models that are forecast here. But what I can tell you is on Thursday, the storm total events on the GFS were about 50% higher and they were on the ECM. ORF, they were both underdone, but the GFS was much closer during the day on Thursday with the amount of rainfall that we were going to get.

00:26:24:16 – 00:26:52:19
Speaker 2
And of course, what we really want to concentrate on is not any deterministic solution, but the ensemble solutions, and the signals for very heavy rain were strong by Thursday for all the models, the Canadian, the Nam, the MWF and the GFS. And that helped give us the confidence. I mean, we’ve never forecasted, you know, 10 to 15in a qpf in our forecast area.

00:26:54:01 – 00:27:17:09
Speaker 2
Before over such a short period of time. And, I give huge hats off to the folks at WPC because seeing their forecast gave us confidence that we weren’t out there standing on a limb by ourselves. They did a fantastic job with, capturing the potential for a historic event. None of us got the absolute amounts right, and we even had local media calling us yesterday.

00:27:17:10 – 00:27:46:21
Speaker 2
Say, hey, how come your amounts are so low? You know, we were forecasting ten inches of rain. But there’s some messaging and understanding there that, probably 2 or 3 PhDs can be made out of. But it became obvious by Thursday, that, we, we were in for it. The models were, were picking up and, you know, having the moisture supply from several different sources, was certainly a big factor is but there are some dynamics involved, too.

00:27:46:21 – 00:28:14:01
Speaker 2
There were some tremendous effluence that was setting up, because of the cut off flow and, the ridging ahead of, walking. And there was, just really tremendous low level, 850 to 700 millibar, moisture influx picked up by the models, you know, off the scale, 4 to 5 standard deviation above normal. And, all that coming together, in a consistent way.

00:28:14:17 – 00:28:36:29
Speaker 2
Gave us the and the GFS was a little bit better on the placement of where the heaviest rain fell as well. The Nam at one point had it all the way down to, Savannah in southeast Georgia and a couple of ones, but the GFS was remarkably consistent. And, but there’s been a lot of talk about, you know, the, the watching and how you have handled it.

00:28:36:29 – 00:29:02:15
Speaker 2
Well, how the GFS handled this event better for us at least, leading up to the event. So, some of that talk is, I think premature and, trying to pick out one particular event to judge the quality of the model is it’s a very poor way of doing business. But we we felt that the models and the support we got from WPC led after we get the absolute amounts.

00:29:02:15 – 00:29:22:21
Speaker 2
No. And I don’t think it would have been, frankly, irresponsible, in my opinion, for us to put up, you know, 25 inch range qpf in the three day period in the forecast, because that’s an extreme event. And, you know, 95 times out of 100, you’re not going to see that. But we were confident that we were going to get an extremely heavy event with ten inches or more.

00:29:22:21 – 00:29:58:05
Speaker 2
And, we let everybody we could know it and we did it. I know some of the neighboring offices, did as well. So, certainly, the understanding of the source, I agree, it’s a pretty complex, like, show them a saying and I, you know, they’re looking for sound bites on the news, so I don’t think that they’re really able to, you know, bring everything together that we’re giving them into something without being something left out that, I certainly would say that, down here, it was a well advertised event.

00:29:58:07 – 00:30:44:26
Speaker 3
If I if I can interject just one more comment. The the big thing that satellite brings is added value to or what the forecasters are looking at in the way of computer models, radar, any other data that he’s looking at and, that added value, built confidence in the forecaster and especially if he was to seek other corroborating, pieces of information that he feels more confident about going out with a heavy rain forecast, if he just had the computer model and maybe a little queasy, you know, a little scared to to test slide on everything that the ensemble models are doing with the added information from satellite data.

00:30:45:12 – 00:30:55:16
Speaker 3
It it gives the forecaster more confidence to, to go out with that extreme forecast, which, we really couldn’t do for 20 or 30 years ago.

00:30:55:18 – 00:31:19:12
Speaker 2
Yeah, we certainly, felt better when we were watching the trends in the water vapor, especially of the, upper low, you could see some really significant darkening in the water vapor channel, as the low rotated down into the northeast Gulf, indicating that the upper jet and the dark fluids was getting stronger and stronger as the event was unfolding, especially on Saturday.

00:31:19:15 – 00:31:37:03
Speaker 2
And that certainly lent confidence to the fact, because there was a break for a while Saturday afternoon and the precipitation for, a lot of the area, certainly for the heavy precipitation. But seeing that on the water vapor side, you know, if this is just going to come right back in tonight and give us the next round of very heavy rain.

00:31:37:03 – 00:31:50:09
Speaker 2
So certainly, the satellite noticing the satellite loop and trends played a factor in giving us confidence to continue with the forecast that we had going.

00:31:50:12 – 00:31:56:25
Speaker 1
Okay. Any more, comments or questions before we wrap it up?

00:31:56:28 – 00:32:22:11
Speaker 2
Hey, we also have Mark Klein. I hate to put you on the spot, Mark, but do you want to give us a little quick snapshot of what it was like up there? I don’t know how much of the event you were involved with at WPC. I was only peripherally involved. We were doing some I.D.s. With FEMA, basically over the course of several days, providing them briefings.

00:32:23:03 – 00:32:43:29
Speaker 2
You know, just basically on a daily basis, trying to, you know, hit the high points. And, you know, the main issue was, you know, there was this question of what would happen with walking, but it was really well messaged that a lot of the, you know, the heavy precipitation well associated, you know, with the moisture was associated with walking to some extent.

00:32:43:29 – 00:33:08:17
Speaker 2
It was definitely not it didn’t matter where walking web, there was still going to be this heavy rainfall event, you know, due to the strong inflow, isotropic lift, etc.. So that really got out there and was well conveyed. And, you know, we had several different we had several conference calls with the offices down there. And with the eastern region.

00:33:08:17 – 00:33:44:00
Speaker 2
And so we, and, and, you know, everybody really this was a very well collaborated storm, I have to say. I mean, this was this was a triumph of the the goal for consistency, here and, and collaboration. This this really worked out very well from our end. And I think for all the offices out. Yeah, I think the one question I wonder if you were getting was, because I think, and Frank, you alluded to this, that there was this question actually might have been a distraction and all of a sudden, oh, well, that’s heading off on off to northeast.

00:33:44:02 – 00:34:11:29
Speaker 2
So we have less to worry about. But I think you were able to capture the key message was that, hey, we have a separate event that is actually going to be a, record setting event to some degree, given a combination of events and and what came even as it departs is just one of the components. And I sounds like given all the other consistency with, on the models, you were able to get that message across.

00:34:12:01 – 00:34:32:02
Speaker 2
Yeah. I mean, that was, that was that was a concern. I mean, you know, people are so focused on the tropical system. And then, you know, for a while there was the forecast of it coming closer to the coast. But then once it was clear it was going out, that was the that was a tough, you know, a tough point because you hear the public might be like, oh, okay, well storm’s gone.

00:34:32:12 – 00:34:51:16
Speaker 2
No problems. But but there was definitely a consistent and and, well, hard hit message. And this was even through the hurricane center’s, public advisories, you know, had had even though Lockheed has had it out there, said there’s still going to be this heavy rain event down in the south, in the southeast. So, you know, there was some concern about that.

00:34:51:16 – 00:35:01:27
Speaker 2
But I think that you know, we were able to pretty much overcome that, and still get a pretty good message out.

00:35:02:00 – 00:35:06:17
Speaker 1
Okay. Any other comments or questions?

00:35:06:19 – 00:35:09:29
Speaker 2
Hi. This is Boston.

00:35:10:01 – 00:35:12:09
Speaker 1
Hello. Can you hear me? Yeah, we can hear you. Go ahead.

00:35:12:09 – 00:35:32:13
Speaker 2
Hey, Sheldon, first of all, congratulations on your retirement. Thank you. And secondly, you know, there’s a slide you have up here on Lily. Both Joe and I remember this event. Yes. And, and we were just comparing it to what she’s showing with walking, and it looks like it has a very similar, conveyor belt coming in from the Pacific.

00:35:32:23 – 00:35:49:24
Speaker 2
Even though it’s a few hundred miles to the east, it looks very similar. And especially that one feed across from the central Atlantic, right on up into, coastal New England. And we do remember this event very well up here. And I think we have a paper out on that, don’t we? We have we’re probably we have a published paper on this one too.

00:35:49:24 – 00:36:07:00
Speaker 2
So, but I just wanted to comment that it looks like it’s a very similar conveyor belt type, multiple conveyor belt, I should say, event, even back from 19, 1996. So, this might be something that, to keep an eye on for future events, so.

00:36:07:02 – 00:36:44:01
Speaker 3
Right. And the point I wanted to make was that, events that occur in one part of the country, you can find those same types of patterns in other parts of the country. Maybe not across the country, but, in similar areas of the country that, and you can look back at the past and, and maybe, help you a little bit, understand, what may be coming up for your area or your area that I could think.

00:36:44:03 – 00:36:48:25
Speaker 1
Okay. Any other comments or questions?

00:36:48:27 – 00:37:13:28
Speaker 2
Well, I like to, just, thank everyone for their participation and, especially, you know, folks there, it’s here in San Jose for putting this together, but also, Charlene for, you know, taking time out of, here. But, but but, you know, very good points about connecting, you know, the satellite and, I keep saying, you know, make sure you keep looking out the window.

00:37:14:01 – 00:37:28:14
Speaker 2
And that’s what satellite can do, especially when you’re in a coastal area and looking out into the oceanic areas. So it’s really pull it all together. And I think it did a tremendous job. And and also thanks for the operational guys for your participation.

00:37:28:16 – 00:37:31:27
Speaker 1
Yes okay. Thanks everybody and have a great day.

00:37:31:29 – 00:37:32:13
Speaker 2
And you too.