Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

00:00:00:00 – 00:00:20:19
Unknown
Thing. But, one thing you can really see a little bit better in here is how there is moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moving, westward and then getting drawn northward toward Colorado. It doesn’t show up quite so nice, quite so nicely, and goes 15, but it shows a very nice thing, goes 13. And there’s one really interesting feature I’m going to show.

00:00:20:29 – 00:00:38:14
Unknown
I can’t remember when it happened, but there’s a polar moisture that just shoots way up into Canada. So the moisture transport with this system, is just, maybe it always happens this way. And then just put putting it in, you know, a ten day loop together. I’m seeing it again, but, really some phenomenal moisture transport.

00:00:39:00 – 00:01:13:12
Unknown
With the circulation in this, in this animation. And, I’m gonna steal some imagery from Scott Meyer, who he put this up on the blog yesterday. So we’re looking at Motus imagery, true color imagery of the. I believe it’s the North Platte River, over the high plains of Colorado and Nebraska before and after. And you can really see the, the, the difference and flooding that’s occurring all along that, watershed of the heavy rains from the Front Range propagate down into the plains.

00:01:13:15 – 00:01:46:23
Unknown
And there’s also a really cool image you put together. It’s I can can’t this is a really interesting picture. So this is Sumi NPP data 90 minutes apart. So it’s two different two subsequent orbits. And look at the change in the look how that changes. Look how the, in this one county, it looks like you’re seeing the front of the flood moving to, you know, I’m not sure if that’s the case in 90 minutes as it’s moved that far.

00:01:47:19 – 00:02:06:01
Unknown
How how long is it going to take to get from the plains to this region? So I’m not sure if that’s what you’re seeing, but it’s when when you’re talking about using Suomi NPP to prepare yourself for Abby. This is a great example of what Abby, I might be able to show you with a better resolution, you might be able to actually see floodwaters moving down.

00:02:06:11 – 00:02:28:27
Unknown
This is the 1.61 micron, channel. So you might be able to actually see floodwaters moving through your WFO when Abby is up there. So thank you. Scott, can you briefly explain how you get data 90 minutes apart from NPP? The the polar orbit, a swath is large enough that if you’re if you’re lucky and you were in this case, you’re on the eastern edge.

00:02:29:00 – 00:02:45:25
Unknown
Well, maybe you’re on the western edge of the swath for the, for one scan and, and for one orbit and then next orbit, you’re on the eastern edge of the swath. Okay. This is the overlapping. So all right. So you’re just and it just happened to be lucky here that it happened an interesting in a meteorologically interesting place.

00:02:45:25 – 00:03:10:09
Unknown
So that I mean the chances of that happening at, of course are greater as you go farther north. It’s probably never going to happen that often in Miami. Okay. Yeah. It’s not too much time in the tropics okay. So thanks. So, so so if you go back to the, previous one, three color the 7 to 1 and then zoom in, I wanted to point on a feature that has to do with, one of the factors that.

00:03:10:12 – 00:03:30:19
Unknown
Yes. Okay. Can you zoom in again and then so that you’re zoomed in to north and now move to the west so you can see more along the foothills and up a little bit further west? I’m not going any further west, okay. Or west as it go. So right there Mark knows we’re I don’t I’m not able to point it out.

00:03:30:19 – 00:03:56:05
Unknown
But maybe Dan can you can actually see the second image near one of the northern, parts of the river to the west where it’s a little bit darker. Yeah, in that area. And that’s where the, burn scar is from our fire last year. So that’s one thing that contributed some to some of the flooding along the border River, which is the one coming in from the north here.

00:03:56:05 – 00:04:18:28
Unknown
That’s this one here. Yeah. Because they had, you know, a ten inches plus on that area. And so there was some mudslides and flooding and the road that goes up that canyon is still closed now that so the burn scar is the brownish part. Right? Okay. Right. That’s a that’s a large burn scar. Yes, yes. So on the road up that Cameron pass.

00:04:19:00 – 00:04:49:19
Unknown
Yes. Okay. Yes. Yeah. Actually they even because the mountains were having some rains over the last month. I heard that even up the Cameron pass, they had some, rocks falling down. So that was why it’s the road is closed all the way up to Cameron Pass. I think there’s parts of it that are actually passable in between here and there, but because it’s one of the only accesses, they just made it so that you couldn’t get all the way down to Fort Collins.

00:04:49:22 – 00:05:15:29
Unknown
And then that’s all I have to show. Okay. And this is Ray again. I had another question about the, the water vapor does does the feature of the streaming moisture from the Pacific qualify, by definition, as an atmospheric river? I don’t know if I’ve seen a good definition of an atmospheric river. Doesn’t look like one. I mean, I’d like to see a.

00:05:16:01 – 00:05:38:08
Unknown
If you look at the mimic DPW, the atmospheric rivers really show up nicely. But that only works over the water. And I don’t have a there’s not a great. I haven’t seen a good representation of the total precipitable water emerging out of the tropics, as a river and moving northward. So I don’t know.

00:05:38:13 – 00:06:03:00
Unknown
Yeah, I don’t think that was that at at play here. Okay. If I could just, comment on that. What are the reasons why, you don’t see a whole lot of atmospheric river is, I guess the you with, because the the terrain features, it’s we don’t, blended DPW. Quite a bit.

00:06:04:15 – 00:06:45:03
Unknown
Which, we show that the water will cover up the land and the coolness of. We don’t bring it down to sea level. What? You see, you know what you see? Little cooler, dry conditions over the Mexican mountains, which is. Yeah, because at higher levels, you have lots of water. So, it’s a little bit harder to see these atmospheric rivers, over the United States because the terrain, unless you raise that moisture down to a standard, surface level, is better.

00:06:45:25 – 00:07:31:28
Unknown
This is hood River. This goes water vapor into, the moisture is have been high levels, and that moisture is above the, the mountain levels in that context. So, you know, it’s, if you’re thinking of atmospheric river over the ocean areas where it’s you level anyway. So less is a lot better in the imagery over the ocean areas, but, I think if you got that moisture down to a standard, sea level, sea level pressure, yeah, I see it a lot better over the, the country as well.

00:07:32:01 – 00:07:58:04
Unknown
Yeah. The last good atmospheric river I saw in the interior of the U.S, like excluding the West coast on the east coast was the national flood of 2010. You could really see it coming up through the Gulf of Mexico into the central part of the U.S and then turning off to the east. But I there was, the great floods of the June of 2006, which were long and just east of the Appalachians, into the Mid-Atlantic.

00:07:58:08 – 00:08:30:25
Unknown
We could discuss. But there was one, lower level moisture plume. It was coming off the Atlantic, and another one that was a little bit less discernible because of the mountains. And as a result, it was a little bit less major, but both of those two were converging over them, over the Mid-Atlantic region. And, June of 2006, it caused quite a bit of precip from the Washington, DC area to, upstate New York.

00:08:30:27 – 00:08:49:13
Unknown
Yeah. I just wanted to quickly show this graphic that you put together, show that shows the low level moisture source coming from 850 from the east and the southeast, and then 700 was more from, New Mexico and West Texas and then the, the mid to higher levels coming from this, very high moisture source over the Pacific.

00:08:49:13 – 00:09:11:06
Unknown
So, so, but but to point out, the question here, you don’t see that continuous, stream of moisture in the blended tip there because of the, the higher terrain. But I want to leave some, time here for, tropical discussion. So, are there any other questions on the flooding before we turn it over to staff B?

00:09:11:14 – 00:09:32:10
Unknown
Yes. Is it possible I can get, b maybe email the of the modus and the polar, satellite shots? I’d like to pass that around the office, let people see it. Yeah. Who is this speaking? This is Jackson and Ed and Jackson. Ed. Okay. What’s your last name? Gray or a Y. Ed. Ray. Okay, okay. So here already?

00:09:32:11 – 00:09:55:24
Unknown
Well, we’ll definitely, do that. Those are on the Sims blog. So if you go to the Sims status, as you see that we’re starting to use slash ghost slash blog. Those are the the Motus data and the NPP data. Are there. Okay. Thanks. Laura, a comment I wanted to make. I was trying to look at some of the, soundings from, Denver.

00:09:56:22 – 00:10:22:28
Unknown
Especially for a survey on the, 12th and 12th in the 12th. And, I believe the equilibrium temperatures were, kind of the, the right temperature side. I believe there were in either in the -40 or maybe even -35 degree, range. So any cloud tops hold this as well as the cloud tops of a genuine warm up.

00:10:23:01 – 00:10:43:02
Unknown
Would it be further enhanced to the precipitation? I’m not exactly sure what the cloud home temperatures, the cold they got, but, anything above anything colder than -35? I certainly hope to to have the, the rainfall as well.

00:10:43:05 – 00:11:17:03
Unknown
Okay. At this time, I’m going to turn it over to, Martin de Maria at, who’s currently down there at, to be at the hurricane center to, give us, a briefing here on the tropics. Okay. Are you are you seeing my screen? Yes. Okay. Yeah. So I have, Marshall something here who works in the, tropical Analysis forecast branch, and, he’s, one of the products they did was, tropical weather discussion, for the broad, tropics.

00:11:17:03 – 00:11:41:16
Unknown
So he’s going to basically get, a briefing that sort of parallels what they do for their travel. A lot of discussion. So go ahead, Marshall, everybody. Commercial office, primarily work is, service analysts here at the African Center and also fill in, on the marine forecast side of things. And we’ll get started here with a water vapor a little.

00:11:42:09 – 00:12:03:04
Unknown
Did you guys see this? Okay, I’m seeing it. Okay. Okay. Should we step through it or, is there any other is there any WFO that, not seeing the loop? Hey, this is Buffalo. I don’t know if we have a bad internet connection, but none of the loops are working here. But at least we get an idea of what you’re looking at.

00:12:03:07 – 00:12:24:21
Unknown
Okay. Go ahead. Stop it. It’s okay. See if that helps. And then you can, like, step through it as you need to. Okay. Well, if I need to. Here, we’ll start off, the eastern side of the image here. That’s just water vapor imagery. Right around, looks like, we’re close to 30 north and, 42 west or so.

00:12:25:14 – 00:13:00:18
Unknown
Tropical Storm Humberto. And, also after this, as it’s sitting here, as you can see to the to the west northwest, there is a, you can see right here, there’s a upper level mid-level to low, up to the north around 38 or so and, west of 60 west. And, this, ramps up. And Humberto, I think, is forecast to be absorbed by this over the next few days as it continue, Humberto continues to move northward.

00:13:01:06 – 00:13:23:10
Unknown
I know the old models were old. Pretty much agreement that this thing was going to be, absorbed by this mid-latitude trough that’s going to pick it up, and then we’ll move off to the northeast. So that’s with, Tropical Storm Humberto, looking south of there around, down in here. I’ll go back to the handle of here.

00:13:23:12 – 00:13:27:13
Unknown
And.

00:13:27:16 – 00:13:50:26
Unknown
There’s a kind of a favorite tropical wave trough. And I kind of looked at some some data this morning. It looked like it was a low latitude tropical wave. And, some energy from Humberto to the left over and continue to kind of just drift westward. So, as you can see, it kind of has that, a lot of moisture involved with it.

00:13:51:19 – 00:14:12:12
Unknown
But it doesn’t really have a lot of organized convection, and that may be due to a lot of the drier air. And then obviously there’s there’s some, African dust that’s out there still lingering. Seems to have been, a lot of dust, this tropical season out in the eastern and central Atlantic. So it’s kind of really had a hard time.

00:14:12:12 – 00:14:35:15
Unknown
So a tropical wave has moved off of that hard time to really get some convection going and get organized. Another feature you can see here around, the 20 and West at 60, there is an upper level low that’s kind of, spinning and contours remain stationary as early as it’s kind of drifting northward a little bit, but I don’t know.

00:14:35:16 – 00:15:15:04
Unknown
There’s been a lot of interest going to end up picking that up or not. But, it seems like a lot of the, westerly energy that we’ve got in the tropics south of 20 over the past month or two, it’s just been aside from the dust, you know, development. But, as it reaches closer to the Los Angeles and, and the southwest, North Atlantic, the shear is very great enough to either steer anything that’s out there up to the north northeast or just, you know, development whatsoever in front of us that arrives across the Caribbean with a little bit of packed, I guess the other area of concern over look at it right

00:15:15:04 – 00:15:43:13
Unknown
now, is it across the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula area? A long way short of all variance, maybe a little bit of, the tail end of this trough, the extension of this latitude area, across the Florida slowed down. And then you could carry, ahead on the surface tells us we’ve got like a front that’s to us, roughly a stationary front along 30 North kind of goes across the northern Florida peninsula into Mississippi or Delta region.

00:15:43:15 – 00:16:05:04
Unknown
And, you’re going to that time of year where we’ll start to see some tropical activity that gets just continues to our down the Yucatan southwest. All. And that seems to be what we’ve seen the last few weeks anyway, with some of the systems that come across the Southwest Gulf, they have Campeche area just and hit into Mexico there.

00:16:06:15 – 00:16:21:20
Unknown
You want to push the, you know, bring up the visible that will bring up a visible cast altogether. What I just described.

00:16:21:23 – 00:16:56:26
Unknown
And just on the phone, can you see, Marshall’s cursor pointing. Pointing. Yeah. Okay. So confirm it. Okay, here’s the here’s the portion of visible imagery you got the first out here. Still has not anything resembling an eye or anything or hurricane strength, but definitely a tropical storm with some banding around the center of it. And, the mid-latitude low is developing, to the west of that that will eventually absorb this, tropical system as it continues to move north first.

00:16:57:27 – 00:17:22:27
Unknown
As I mentioned, you can kind of see the melting off of, the satellite imagery here across the deeper tropics and this tropical wave hybrid surface trough, I believe, because it’s a service trough and then a tropical wave, but definitely some energy leftover, moving westward, still causing some precept, between 40 and, say, 55 West there.

00:17:23:11 – 00:17:45:17
Unknown
And that will affect the Lesser Antilles here probably over the next 4 or 5 days, maybe 3 or 5 days. They range, and whatever’s left of this energy, this upper level low is still here north of, Puerto Rico and may actually steer some of this energy more to the north and in a way, out to, into the central Atlantic.

00:17:47:15 – 00:18:16:00
Unknown
You know, thing here with, the system over that you can, Gulf Honduras areas. And this is, the model that is forecast to keep drifting west northwestward and whatever remains as it goes across the Yucatan, the terrain and, impacts from that will, look like most of the models is kind of keep stage as development status over the waters, will possibly develop into something.

00:18:16:05 – 00:18:40:23
Unknown
And depending on movement, if it stays over the waters and, some of the, the models are, hinting that it will come back kind of weaker on the back east northeast towards, for example. So something to watch here in the next few days. So the moisture doesn’t know. A couple of the outlying models have it developing into somewhat of a for the last few low for a broad over the southeast.

00:18:41:01 – 00:19:06:05
Unknown
But that remains to be seen. What’s really going to happen here? I know there’s, upper level ridging across Texas. Certainly part of the western, Westerns, all sort of stuff. I have the environment that’ll be conducive for some convection to develop and sustain itself over the next few days. There’s a really good example here in terms of forward scattering to if you look at it, does plume here and there, you know, right.

00:19:06:05 – 00:19:25:03
Unknown
That determination done by the early morning the satellite data is further west in the south on the horizon. So you’re seeing the the sun angle is below and scattering the light forward. So that just shows up great in the in the early morning. And then you can’t see it as well. You know, as the sun gets more overhead.

00:19:25:06 – 00:19:47:14
Unknown
Okay. We had, it’s about noon and or these are usually about a half hour. Yeah. But I would say if you have a little more to show, that’d be fine. Okay. I think the only other thing that, we had planned to show is we loaded up, a forecast model loop. So let’s see if we still have it over here.

00:19:47:17 – 00:20:14:16
Unknown
So, yeah, we’re going to briefly go over that, I think it’s near the beginning. Yeah, hopefully at the beginning here we’re looking at, you know, 1230 this morning and going through time here. Look, we have this, mid-latitude, upper level low. Oh, and this, this, this product. Maybe people familiar with. I think it’s 200 millibar winds, 500 millibar heights, and a 50 mile an hour forecast.

00:20:14:21 – 00:20:43:18
Unknown
And the yellow contours. And so then through this here, and as you can see, Humberto out there and the mid-latitude low and a little low, it’s going to interact, the next couple of days here, it’ll, it’ll actually, the low developed and then kicks off to the northeast. So we’ll really have to. To folks.

00:20:43:20 – 00:21:09:04
Unknown
Oh, this might be close to, maybe probably 20 instead of 60. Yeah, that’s fairly interesting because there has been some more interesting. Yeah. It these are here.

00:21:09:06 – 00:21:25:07
Unknown
There. We got, I mean, and Sheila.

00:21:25:09 – 00:21:55:10
Unknown
Okay. So, like, there we go. Here in the beginning, there’s, look at 9 p.m. as well as this morning. You can see Alberto’s out here all kind of all alone. And, here’s that upper level trough that’s going eventually. So that’s pretty quick, becomes work by that troughing. And, you can see, tropical wave activity eight have been or 2830 where we kind of look for travel points to come off.

00:21:55:10 – 00:22:21:25
Unknown
So I really don’t have anything of note for the next few days here. That’s, we’re going at that time of year where anything that comes off is going to be really, really, really weak and, be low latitude. It’ll be really difficult to track. So in some cases, I’ll go back here to the beginning. As you can see, there’s also a.

00:22:21:27 – 00:22:43:24
Unknown
Like, some triumphing over the western United States that’s going to play into how this low is developed through the southwest Gulf here. Well, move as you see a little ridge. That’s a good thing for development with the convection and such. But then this upper level and the upper level troughing will start across the central, Conus here.

00:22:43:26 – 00:23:05:04
Unknown
And most likely pick it up. And the model, this one going all the way up and it actually gets picked up by this trough. So the models here and European have, have passed it up and it kind of swings by and looks kind of a frontal zone or some kind of troughing across the Gulf. And the system kind of remains down on the south southwest Gulf.

00:23:05:06 – 00:23:34:06
Unknown
And as the trough moves off of it’s kind of this tropical system, it’ll linger at the tail end of a front and it gets a little extra spin and potentially develops, as we head into to, next week, next week. So, that’s pretty much all I have. I know that, half of the Europeans do have a similar scenario where they kind of bring in toward the Florida peninsula, right up into the Atlantic region, off the coast, eastern United States.

00:23:34:18 – 00:23:53:13
Unknown
Remains to be seen. It’s going to be a tropical hybrid, some kind and or just a low that comes out of the Gulf along moisture and brings rain to the eastern United States. The other thing, you see this for the long range a little bit. It shows like really other than the little thing is the gulf.

00:23:53:13 – 00:24:15:25
Unknown
You see the the westerly kind of building all the way through the Caribbean and low latitudes and it’s, you know, it could be the shut down of, what was already a pretty lackluster hurricane season. So in the, at the dry mid Atlantic, I think all the moisture wicking Colorado, I know it had to go somewhere and it’s not in, it’s not in the, the normal main development region, that’s for sure.

00:24:15:25 – 00:24:24:05
Unknown
So. Okay, there any any questions on that part of the discussion?

00:24:24:08 – 00:24:47:28
Unknown
Okay. Okay. Well, thanks. Marshall and Mark. Well, before we conclude, are there any, comments or, any anything else, somebody wants to, ask about or, questions. And what we have shown today. Great information.

00:24:48:00 – 00:24:57:05
Unknown
Okay. Well, thank you, everybody, for attending. Thanks, guys. Thank you, thank you. Thanks. Thanks, everybody.