ENTLN data for Revere, MA tornado event 28 July 2014
Transcript of the above video
00:00:00:00 – 00:00:05:20
Speaker 1
Turn it over to you to talk about, the Revere event.
00:00:05:22 – 00:00:06:10
Speaker 2
All right.
00:00:06:12 – 00:00:08:11
Speaker 1
There’s that. How good is Joe Dela.
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Speaker 2
Carbone going to be on also?
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Speaker 1
I believe he was. Yeah. I’m here. Out. Okay. Hi, Joe. Hi. How are you?
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Speaker 1
Joe might have some key details about the event for us, and I’ll put me on the spot, I love it. It just pick it up. John. Here to make sure.
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Speaker 2
I don’t trash his office too much. That’s okay. I will return the favor for you.
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Unknown
Out, and no problem.
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Speaker 4
Okay. Brian, are you ready to begin?
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Unknown
I’m ready. I have, yeah, I guess it is 930 now.
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Speaker 4
Okay, well, I’ll just say welcome, everybody, to today’s busy satellite chat session. And to lead us off, we’ll go to Brian. Made it, forecast decision training branch to, discuss lightning and, how it applied to a recent event.
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Speaker 1
All right. Thanks, Dan. Just by way of introduction, as, we do, we know how many folks we have on the call.
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Speaker 4
Yeah, I see several here. But if you go to your attendee list, you should see them. But, there’s, there’s around ten or so. Right. Okay. More coming on.
00:01:23:28 – 00:02:04:06
Speaker 1
All right. Good. Well, we, but the display that you should be seeing on your screen is the, Earth Network streamer RSA. This is a whole evening’s data set that the, weather service, contracted for for, about a year and a half ago. And we’re pretty close to getting it implemented. And how it works should be, in the fall time frame, the October time frame, when, a website, two sites will begin to see this data, inside their, their, a website displays.
00:02:04:08 – 00:02:38:28
Speaker 1
So I just wanted to do a quick review to show you what they streamer RTT display looks like. Basically you’re able to, track the total lightning, cluster and cell analysis that, Earth Networks determines, and then they track the cells. And that’s what this, the sort of warm looking, display of here, you can see the, the,
00:02:39:00 – 00:03:12:13
Speaker 1
Those colors matched to the flash rates, at the bottom and the legend there. And then the latest cell position is shown by this, this polygon and the, the tip here is the final, piece of the storm track. So, one of the things you can do is create a cell table. You see things like the cell phone destroyed, the total flash rate, the cloud flash rate, and the cloud ground flash rate.
00:03:12:16 – 00:03:34:24
Speaker 1
And then, you can also, create a display that shows the, the total lightning graph, which I have here. And this is the type of display, that I’ll be discussing, in a moment here about the, the,
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Speaker 2
Revere tornado.
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Speaker 1
Event. So are there any questions just about what the data set is and how to access it? Or, if you have access to it or anything like that.
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Speaker 1
Okay. Hearing none. I’ll turn it over, to, al. And if I can make al the presenter or, I guess, Dan, I’ll make you the presenter, and then you can make al the presenter.
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Speaker 4
Okay. No problem.
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Unknown
All right, I hit the show.
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Speaker 2
My screen button. All right, we got it. I have two monitors here. I don’t know which one you’re looking at.
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Speaker 1
Or saying a nice coastal,
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Speaker 2
Oh. That’s the, background. Yeah. Okay.
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Speaker 1
Yeah.
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Speaker 2
Okay. Do you see the, the now that I’ve got the map at the lightning up.
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Speaker 1
Right. The Google Earth. Yes. Yep. Okay. Yeah, I thought I, I mentioned something, first.
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Speaker 2
This is, okay, here’s the stream or RTA display.
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Unknown
So I’ve got it over the, Boston area. There’s nothing going on now. But I wanted to point out,
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Speaker 2
Besides the real time display that you showed, you could also, click this archive button, and you have to be at zoom level nine or higher to do this. But if you click that, you can go into a they have an online lightning archive and then you can specify a date.
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Unknown
Well you can get up, you can get six hours of a time span over, over a limited area.
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Speaker 2
And then.
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Speaker 1
You can export a, there’s a KMC.
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Speaker 2
File for Google Earth, and then there’s a comma separated variable file, which you can put into a spreadsheet and, manipulate.
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Unknown
The data from there. So that’s the way I, I was looking at this.
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Speaker 2
Revere tornado case, and I looked I’ve used this website more, and in retrospect, the mode that I have in real time. But we do use this data in our office. Quite a bit, to see the total lightning, along with the cloud to ground on a works.
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Unknown
But, anyway, so that’s kind of how I, how do I access the.
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Speaker 2
Data for, for this particular case. And so here is the, the of z.
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Speaker 1
File that,
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Speaker 2
I downloaded and, and, I made it. This is not Google Earth life. This is, an image of it, but, with a time scale up there, you can kind of, you can scroll through, time and see how the lightning progresses. Over time. But this is just a still screen capture showing.
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Unknown
The total lightning. And so you can see,
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Speaker 2
You have all these and I think, I don’t know if I don’t think it makes a distinction between cloud to ground and inter cloud here, but you can see there’s a cluster down here kind of southwest of Boston. And then the storm was tracking from southwest to northeast. So there was an increase in lightning, to the southwest, east.
00:07:26:01 – 00:07:46:11
Speaker 2
And then it it kind of weakened for a while. Over the Boston area. Then it, the the lightning rate picked up again just northeast and on up, through Revere and, that area, northeast of Boston where the tornado occurred.
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Unknown
And so,
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Speaker 2
Let’s see if I have some other.
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Speaker 2
Where’s that other data, I guess. I guess it’s this screen. Yeah, I if I go backwards, if I plot. Yeah. Here’s the time series of the data, that, that we were just looking at. And you can see, on this graph, if this covers a two hour period from 12 Z to 14 Z on July 28th. Man.
00:08:23:08 – 00:08:48:25
Speaker 2
And you can see there’s not much activity before 1230. And then there’s a, it picks up very quickly. Now, the the blue line is the cloud to ground lightning from Earth and Earth. That works. And then the red line is the inter cloud flashes from, from first networks, and then the green is the sum of those two.
00:08:48:26 – 00:09:15:27
Speaker 2
The total lightning that also on here. And the purple line, like I look back on a website, and I just counted up the lightning cloud to ground lightning for that cell. And so, and it matches up pretty well. Not exactly, but the total number of flashes cloud the ground flashes from E and I versus LDN was very similar, around 150, 160.
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Speaker 2
So that kind of gives me a little more confidence that the at least the first network is picking up the cloud. The ground flashes correctly.
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Unknown
But anyway, as you can see, there’s some increase in the, cloud to ground, in both cases.
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Speaker 2
But, there’s a much sharper and more dramatic increase in the intra cloud lightning and thus.
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Unknown
Also the total lightning. There’s a very rapid rise between 1230 Z and 1240 Z.
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Speaker 2
And then it falls off again, and then it’s that storm. It’s the electrical activity drops off, and then it picks up again, between 1320, 13, 33. Not as much, but there there is an increase.
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Unknown
And then the tornado occurred from.
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Speaker 2
1330 to 213.
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Unknown
36.
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Speaker 2
So there so perhaps, you know, if you’re using, lightning, if you’re looking for a rapid increase in, perhaps it would have signaled, bre perhaps call for a severe morning and, perhaps around maybe the earliest, maybe 13, 25 or so. Could have gotten a couple of minutes lead time there. Let me show one other graph.
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Speaker 2
That, I also did.
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Unknown
So it’s a little more a little more complicated. There’s we there’s a way to automate that.
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Speaker 2
Increase, it’s what we call the lightning job. And the way that’s done is you, you combine that the lightning data into two minute deaths. So, in other words, the lightning from the first and.
00:11:13:16 – 00:11:19:01
Unknown
Second minute goes into a band, and then the third and fourth minute goes into the next band and so.
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Speaker 2
Forth. So you get a two minute average, right? So that’s this green line that tends to smooth it out a little bit. There’s not quite as much noise in the signal. But then you and then you use that two minute flash rate, to compute your, you look at the current flash to rate for ten minutes compared to the previous one and that, that product you get, the flash rate back, which is the blue line here.
00:11:52:21 – 00:12:00:03
Speaker 2
And then you also look back the previous five bands of two minutes or effectively ten minutes past.
00:12:00:03 – 00:12:06:18
Unknown
You look at the variability of the lightning data. You compute a standard deviation or sigma and you.
00:12:06:18 – 00:12:32:05
Speaker 2
Multiply that by two. So then you compare the the latest DF, the flash rate came with the variability or that or twice the standard deviation over the past ten minutes. And if, if the validity is greater than two sigma, or if the blue line is greater than the red line, that that, is considered to be a lightning job.
00:12:32:07 – 00:13:11:08
Speaker 2
So from that you can see that there’s one here about 1230, and then there’s one here about 1325, although there’s also a criteria that you had to have a flash rate of at least ten minutes over at least ten flashes per minute, so that that would delay it a couple of minutes here. But but, anyway, if you were just going by the lightning, just, just using the, lightning job algorithm, you would probably issue a severe thunderstorm warning, maybe around 1235 or 1240.
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Speaker 2
And in fact, the town office did issue a severe thunderstorm warning about 1250, I believe. And then there was there was some wind damage reported, somewhat later about, 1305 and 1315, which is well, which is after the electrical activity or after the lightning activity has dropped off again.
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Unknown
And then, and again right.
00:13:38:02 – 00:14:02:14
Speaker 2
Here, perhaps just, depending how long you made this one, it might still be an effect. If you use, I just cut it out. It was almost an hour difference here, so you probably would probably be issuing another warning here out of, you know, I don’t think the lightning would prompt anyone to issue a tornado warning.
00:14:02:16 – 00:14:26:10
Speaker 2
I, as far as I know, at this point, there’s no good way to use lightning data to distinguish tornadic from non tornadic severe. But perhaps perhaps the lightning would have encouraged a severe thunderstorm warning. With a couple of minutes lead time, before the tornado that occurred at Revere. So, you know, that’s that’s basically what I have.
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Speaker 2
So questions discussion.
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Speaker 1
Yeah. All right. Thanks. Out there. Let’s give Joe, our first shot. Any questions, Joe, on either of the, displays. You know.
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Speaker 2
Alex, good stuff. And, I mean, I think, if nothing else.
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Unknown
It just raises your situational awareness. You know, if you see a storm or the lightning is increasing, and just to go, just to kind of everybody let everybody know what was going on, the original warning was issued and it went 12 1330.
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Speaker 2
But the forecast staff here didn’t receive any of the damage reports.
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Unknown
They didn’t come in until later that afternoon. So, they thought that, you know.
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Speaker 2
The storm had been rotating.
00:15:06:15 – 00:15:21:27
Unknown
They were watching it, but, nothing happened. So, they kind of transitioned to thinking more of a flash flood threat, which was also ongoing at the time. We had kind of both hazards at the same time. And that’s that’s kind of why the warning was never extended beyond 1330.
00:15:22:12 – 00:15:34:27
Speaker 2
But in this case, certainly seeing another lightning show up, I think that might at least raise the situational awareness that anybody to be watching the storm a little bit. So, it’s good stuff. The one question I have an hour a day and I don’t know if you can answer it is.
00:15:35:11 – 00:15:50:07
Unknown
The damage reports that we have there in the is that much later than where the lightning is decrease. Is that typical or is it tend to be a little bit earlier as the lightning is is decreasing?
00:15:50:18 – 00:15:52:13
Unknown
I’m not sure. I, I’ve looked.
00:15:52:13 – 00:15:54:14
Speaker 2
At several cases. It’s not unusual.
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Speaker 1
For there to be a lag.
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Speaker 2
You know, maybe that’s like a sound graph that occurs, you know, later on.
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Speaker 1
Yeah. There was a lightning.
00:16:04:17 – 00:16:16:08
Speaker 2
The lightning job is associated with strong updrafts. And right. So it’s that’s not unusual. See it at that point in the, in the curve sounds like. Yeah. It’s about, a half an hour later or. Okay.
00:16:16:10 – 00:16:23:19
Unknown
Yeah. That was the damage was, there was a microburst and Needham mass, which is west southwest of Boston.
00:16:23:21 – 00:16:27:21
Speaker 2
Fairly number of trees downed, during that time.
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Speaker 1
This is a scout, Rod Lasky with this.
00:16:30:17 – 00:16:41:22
Speaker 2
You actually can’t have I don’t think it was the case here, but when you have collapsing storms, you can also get rapid increases in lightning as the storm settles out. But that, like I said, wasn’t the case here.
00:16:41:22 – 00:16:48:04
Speaker 1
But that is something we have to look at in the lightning jump algorithm.
00:16:48:22 – 00:17:13:04
Speaker 5
This is a person until, you know, we we’ve been looking at this, you know, these type of activities for a for many years. And related to what Scott just said, we have seen that quite a bit with some of the on the more robust supercells where, the storms will start collapsing, or start morphing in a more, you know, maybe LCS type storms or multi cell clusters and you’ll see the lightning, increase dramatically.
00:17:13:04 – 00:17:34:13
Speaker 5
So that that’s certainly something you have to watch for. I mean, you’ll, you’ll see another, lightning jump and you won’t get any additional severe weather or certainly at least high end severe weather with it. So, that’s interesting. I know that the, this network is a little bit more coarse. And then what were you still looking at here?
00:17:34:13 – 00:17:51:26
Speaker 5
But, it was there any sort of, like a lightning hole that it was that that maybe you noticed? Was that with this particular storm and when the tornado was occurring, or a minima kind of near where the where the where the mesocyclone was, was located.
00:17:51:28 – 00:18:14:22
Speaker 2
That not that I, not that I could tell it like you say, I, I guess I didn’t look that I didn’t look at it quite that closely, but, you know, going back to my, the I mean, there’s that there’s the map of all the lightning. I mean, it’s not obvious to me if there’s anything I don’t know exactly where the tornado was on that path.
00:18:14:22 – 00:18:19:10
Speaker 2
So. Where is Revere on that map?
00:18:19:13 – 00:18:29:06
Speaker 1
It’s just a little left to where your cursor is out. Maybe a little. Sorry about that. Right about there. Yeah. Thanks.
00:18:29:08 – 00:18:33:00
Unknown
Just north of us and the other, the damage in Needham was associated with that first.
00:18:33:06 – 00:18:48:00
Speaker 1
Batch of lightning, kind of on the, but closer to the eastern edge of that big cluster of lightning to the southwest.
00:18:48:02 – 00:18:53:22
Speaker 1
Okay. Anybody else?
00:18:53:24 – 00:18:55:02
Speaker 1
Right, right. Okay.
00:18:55:05 – 00:18:59:24
Speaker 6
Hello. Hi, this is Eleanor from Taunton. The satellite focal point up here.
00:18:59:27 – 00:19:04:09
Unknown
Hi, Eleanor. Hello.
00:19:04:12 – 00:19:30:23
Speaker 6
Question about the, the is for our whoever else? I’m kind of trying to relate this with. I know we’re getting this into a web, but we’re also going to be getting, the lightning on the satellite when, goes-r goes up, and I’m starting to do, outreach on that. So what I want to know is, is this two sigma and the, lightning joint data going to be similar for the lightning jump?
00:19:30:23 – 00:19:36:01
Speaker 6
That’s going to happen once we get goes-r.
00:19:36:09 – 00:19:44:12
Speaker 1
I guess I’ll take that one. Yeah. So, are there there are a number of algorithms, being tested at the proving ground.
00:19:44:12 – 00:19:44:21
Speaker 6
Yeah.
00:19:44:21 – 00:20:17:18
Speaker 1
And is that right? The hazardous weather testbed in Norman. Yeah. So that’s, work in progress, but the basic display will be because our total lightning and, flash directory, format. So it’ll it’ll be, it’ll look a lot like an image format. It won’t have the same point, type locations like we’re displaying here. So it’ll look a little different, but, you know, it has the same light utility, and it’s going to also.
00:20:17:18 – 00:20:20:28
Speaker 6
Have that two sigma that I was showing earlier.
00:20:21:24 – 00:20:33:17
Speaker 1
But the two sigma appears to be the front runner in terms of algorithms right now. Okay, great. And last, something, that better pops up. That’s probably what he’ll see.
00:20:33:19 – 00:20:35:08
Speaker 6
Okay, great. Thanks.
00:20:35:11 – 00:20:38:14
Speaker 1
You bet.
00:20:38:16 – 00:20:47:10
Speaker 1
We had somebody else.
00:20:47:12 – 00:20:49:27
Unknown
Scott, where are you going? To make another comment.
00:20:49:29 – 00:20:57:16
Speaker 1
I could. Yeah, I was just going to say it’s probably going to be worth us scientists looking into all the different causes and probably be.
00:20:57:16 – 00:21:02:04
Speaker 2
Very helpful if the operational forecasters looked into it, too, because cell mergers.
00:21:02:04 – 00:21:05:24
Speaker 1
There’s a lot of different things that can trigger a jump signature. So.
00:21:05:27 – 00:21:12:09
Speaker 2
You know, the more that we can understand about that, the better. So I think that’s an area ripe for us to focus on.
00:21:12:11 – 00:21:34:28
Speaker 1
And then also to that last point there is sigma is the best algorithm right now. But current lightning junk, research is looking at tuning the algorithm based on different, flash rate minimums before it’s turned on and different sigma values. And so by just tuning the algorithm or potentially combining it with other radar attributes, there could be an.
00:21:34:28 – 00:21:35:16
Speaker 2
Improved.
00:21:35:16 – 00:21:40:27
Unknown
Algorithm in the Goes-r era. This is that in in time. That’s that’s a.
00:21:40:27 – 00:21:53:10
Speaker 5
Good point about the cell merger. There was a, a cell merger that occurred, just west of Boston with a system with a storm right ahead of, you know, the Revere tornado. That’s the other question.
00:21:53:10 – 00:21:58:21
Unknown
I have it has there been any, information on on on false alarms with the with the.
00:21:58:21 – 00:22:05:06
Speaker 5
Lightning jump product?
00:22:05:09 – 00:22:05:29
Unknown
Yeah, there’s there.
00:22:05:29 – 00:22:07:26
Speaker 2
Certainly has also are or it’s pretty.
00:22:07:26 – 00:22:09:07
Speaker 1
High, but I think.
00:22:09:15 – 00:22:14:04
Speaker 2
Maybe one of the other guys could speak to that. Brian, I don’t know if you want to. A lot of the research is going.
00:22:14:04 – 00:22:15:02
Speaker 5
Into reducing.
00:22:15:02 – 00:22:16:16
Speaker 2
That far.
00:22:16:18 – 00:22:43:06
Speaker 1
Right? I mean, that’s that’s the reason that it hasn’t been rolled out, as part of the warning process right now, it’s still the subject of some fine tuning and research. But, I guess even though we’ve only, you know, our only showed the, lightning. Here it goes. I really want to stress that it’s really important to know the environment.
00:22:43:06 – 00:23:13:15
Speaker 1
And you obviously utilize the lightning information with all the other information, including the radar. Certainly a low level boundary is, cell mergers and cell splits, any of that type of behavior. And, information would, would factor into, a warning decision here. So, so I guess I an answer your question. It’s it’s it is valid.
00:23:13:15 – 00:23:20:20
Speaker 1
It is incumbent, to consider all the information and not just the lightning information.
00:23:20:22 – 00:23:21:17
Speaker 2
Sure, sure.
00:23:21:17 – 00:23:24:27
Speaker 1
Thank thank you very much. Yep. Yeah, this is al.
00:23:24:27 – 00:23:51:11
Speaker 2
I. My impression, my opinion right now is that the radar will probably continue to be our primary warning tool. But I think the lightning at the same time would be, can be a valuable supplement. In some cases, it may give an earlier indication or if nothing else, it may just provide supporting evidence. You know, sometimes you’re in the fence for the radar.
00:23:51:11 – 00:24:03:25
Speaker 2
If you see the lightning, job and that’s. Yeah. May that’s may, kind of push your aura over into issuing a warning. And I.
00:24:03:27 – 00:24:07:18
Unknown
I, listen to, one of.
00:24:07:18 – 00:24:35:01
Speaker 2
The, sessions from the, hazardous weather, testbed, and there was, You know, they were evaluating, some total lightning products, and I don’t the forecasters from the field who were there were seem to be pretty impressed with the lightning. They thought it was, pretty, pretty valuable tool that I saw, sort of a just anecdotal, but that’s that’s what I heard.
00:24:35:04 – 00:24:38:15
Speaker 1
Right. And let me ask, Chris Gardner, in terms of the.
00:24:38:15 – 00:24:40:25
Speaker 5
False alarm, issue.
00:24:40:27 – 00:24:48:09
Speaker 1
How are the how’s Huntsville going dealing with that? You know, it’s kind of like what Scott was saying about my.
00:24:48:14 – 00:25:16:25
Speaker 5
My for a anecdotal kind of impression. It it is fairly high. But, you know, it’s interesting when we look at the data, we do use a lot, you know, we we use it in conjunction with the other tools that we have with Radar and North Pole, and a lot of times I see the forecasters when they’re out there looking at it, they look at it more, you know, we don’t use the Earth Network’s data as much because we have the we have the ground based, 3D mapper, but, yeah.
00:25:16:25 – 00:25:46:07
Speaker 5
See, I’m using a, more like an A4 panel, and they’re using it in conjunction with other data, but it gives them some additional kind of confidence and a warning, warning process. We did a study, sort of an in-house study a couple of years ago. It looked at it from microburst, and it had some pretty good utility, in terms of giving us some additional lead time because microburst are a huge issue for us in the summer, especially limited lead time.
00:25:46:09 – 00:25:53:23
Speaker 5
We have some pretty good correlation between lightning, the lightning job, you know, out of hitting the mark signature and.
00:25:53:25 – 00:25:54:09
Speaker 1
00:25:54:09 – 00:26:16:13
Speaker 5
And it and some additional eight other, the other, other signatures that we’ve traditionally used in and, and false alarms or not extraordinarily high. And we wanted to follow up on that with a, with a follow on howling scholar. And we didn’t get we didn’t get a bite the summer. We’re going to try again next summer. But, the thing is, we just use it in conjunction with our other tools.
00:26:16:15 – 00:26:39:27
Speaker 5
I think it was al mentioned, the hazardous weather testbed. I think it may be a central region with our Das Boot camp. Was testing something, and maybe it was a 70. They’re testing the algorithm or the, the tool within a of that. Ken Sparrow and Jason Burke has been working on it. Kind of give you some real time sort of analytics, on the, on the lightning job.
00:26:39:29 – 00:26:41:16
Speaker 5
And I think that would be a huge.
00:26:42:09 – 00:26:42:27
Speaker 1
Assistance.
00:26:42:27 – 00:27:02:01
Speaker 5
To the forecasters if we can get it within a website so we can sort of use it in conjunction with our other tools. And, Jason started developing when I was here at the office, and now he’s working on the across the hall. And, I think that what that would allow us is just another, another bullet in our gun that we can utilize for warning decision making.
00:27:02:03 – 00:27:07:11
Speaker 5
So, long story, short story long. I’ll shut up now.
00:27:07:14 – 00:27:12:02
Speaker 1
Thanks, Chris.
00:27:12:04 – 00:27:27:06
Speaker 1
Okay. Any anything else? Or we’ll wrap it up here. And, let’s get back to your day. Going on. Going twice. All right. Thanks, everybody. Thanks. Out.
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