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00:00:00:00 – 00:00:24:03
Speaker 1
Aaron, welcome to the visit satellite chat for today. And as you’re aware here, there’s, moderate risk over the Southern Plains, including, Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and down into Texas and then a much larger slight risk outside of that, that it goes all the way to, Illinois, southern Wisconsin. So that’s what we’re going to, primarily talk about for today.
00:00:24:06 – 00:00:49:15
Speaker 1
And, some of the, forecast issues that that we can deal with in terms of, looking at satellite imagery here. One of the first questions we might have is how much clearing, takes place for, for later in the day, how much insolation, do we get here? And one of the things that I’m, looking at right here is the, visible imagery, centered in the Wichita Falls vicinity here.
00:00:49:20 – 00:01:18:08
Speaker 1
So we’re looking at North Texas and and, southwest and central Oklahoma right here. If we overlay the, surface observations, we can see, pretty good dew points in the mid 60s, throughout most of the, North Texas area extending up into Oklahoma. We have near 70 dew points here and, southwest Oklahoma around Lawton and, 73 here up to the Oklahoma City area.
00:01:18:15 – 00:01:39:07
Speaker 1
So quite a bit of moisture around. You can see the temperatures are in the, 70s. And then we have a, a front right here. Let me go ahead and, just draw in some things here, or better yet, I’ll go ahead and make this, interactive and, and have some folks draw in here.
00:01:39:07 – 00:01:48:26
Speaker 1
So first let me do a quick draw. I know we have Tulsa on the line. It looks like we have Columbia, South Carolina, as well.
00:01:48:28 – 00:01:49:13
Speaker 2
Yes, ma’am.
00:01:49:13 – 00:01:54:04
Speaker 1
Is here. Okay. And, Lubbock, Texas, I see on the go to meeting.
00:01:54:07 – 00:01:55:05
Speaker 2
Yes, logic is there.
00:01:55:05 – 00:02:05:07
Speaker 1
And, is there anybody else that I’m missing from any photos?
00:02:05:10 – 00:02:32:01
Speaker 1
Okay. What I’m going to do here is, I’ll go ahead and ask, I’ll go ahead and ask, Lubbock. What I’m going to do is ask you to just go ahead and, draw in the various front that you see here. And it should be able to, use the left mouse button on your, screen here and go ahead and draw on the various, boundaries.
00:02:32:01 – 00:02:40:03
Speaker 1
I believe it’s updating with the latest image here. So just wait a second for that. Love it. Do you see that? Okay. First of all.
00:02:40:06 – 00:02:43:19
Speaker 2
Yes. We’re, now trying to draw the front.
00:02:43:26 – 00:03:01:27
Speaker 1
Okay, great. And I’ll put the surface arms back up there for you. If you have a question about how the drawing tool works, just let me know.
00:03:02:00 – 00:03:04:25
Speaker 2
I guess we’re not getting any any drawing, tool.
00:03:04:27 – 00:03:17:21
Speaker 1
Let’s see. I’ll make sure you’re allowed here.
00:03:17:23 – 00:03:42:00
Speaker 1
Okay, go ahead and try. Actually, I think what you have to do, you see, on your go to meeting on the, left side, there’s a drawing tools menu that it’s, highlighted little with a little pen, and it says Drawing Tools menu. Let me know if you see that.
00:03:42:02 – 00:03:44:13
Speaker 2
I guess we don’t have the drawing tools menu.
00:03:44:15 – 00:03:45:20
Speaker 1
Okay.
00:03:45:22 – 00:03:47:22
Speaker 2
If you need to ask somebody else for the moment.
00:03:47:28 – 00:04:19:14
Speaker 1
Okay. Okay. Well, what I’ll do is I’ll, I’ll draw it in myself. Yeah. What we have is a cold front that extends out. Go ahead and roughly draw it in with my my unsteady hand here. It looks like it’s kind of wavering some. But roughly down in this area here we have the cold front actually probably went a little bit too far south on the, probably should have brought it back around somewhere around, Childress and back up something like this here.
00:04:19:14 – 00:04:47:14
Speaker 1
So I went a little bit too far south, and this portion right here. But the cold front is through Amarillo and, Plainview and then definitely through Childress right now and extending through southwest Oklahoma. So, south of that, here’s our clearing out here in the Lubbock area. And, and then, southeast of that area, we have these stable wave clouds, in this general vicinity around Abilene, extending southwest of, Wichita Falls.
00:04:47:16 – 00:05:18:11
Speaker 1
And then we have this more, I guess we call it Cumulus. It’s oriented parallel to the boundary there, flow here over in the Dallas-Fort worth area and extending up into Oklahoma, where we have some elevated convection, up here and in Oklahoma, taking place here. So, so, some of the questions that we have for today, where the, warm sector going to be in terms of, how much clearing is going to take place, where is the triple point going to set up for, later in the day?
00:05:18:11 – 00:05:44:24
Speaker 1
And, some of the forecasts, tools that you can use to help answer those questions here, particularly with respect to how much cloud cover or how much clearing is going to take place and where is the synthetic imagery. And what I’m going to do is switch to a different switch to a different screen over here and let me just, bring that up.
00:05:50:06 – 00:06:00:21
Speaker 1
My computer’s just a little slow. Hold on a second.
00:06:00:23 – 00:06:17:28
Speaker 1
My computer is a little bit slow here in terms of, no, it’s it’s one of these tabs here. Okay, here we go. It’s just very slow.
00:06:18:00 – 00:06:28:21
Speaker 1
Okay. The the first one I’m going to bring up. Just give a pause here for everybody, to make sure they, they see this here.
00:06:28:24 – 00:06:53:03
Speaker 1
And the first, imagery that we’re going to look at is the, synthetic imagery from the, Nam nest. This is run at, four kilometer resolution. It’s run once a day at zero. It goes out 60 hours. And what it’s looking at is the forecast 10.7 micron imagery. So this is a good comparison between the goes, air imagery and the forecast imagery.
00:06:53:03 – 00:07:07:10
Speaker 1
Here. You can get a good idea in terms of the forecast cloud cover. So let me go ahead and and back up here a little bit.
00:07:07:13 – 00:07:29:08
Speaker 1
My computer’s just very slow right now. Let me turn this over to, Scott Brockmire, and I’ll see if I can, get my system here to cooperate. So I’ll, I’ll turn it over to Scott Brockmire here, and he can, talk about, some images for today here.
00:07:29:11 – 00:07:38:21
Speaker 2
Okay. I guess I wasn’t sure exactly what you wanted me to.
00:07:38:24 – 00:07:41:18
Unknown
I mean, I could show.
00:07:41:21 – 00:07:46:03
Speaker 2
A little bit of images from the overnight hours.
00:07:46:06 – 00:07:50:26
Speaker 1
Yeah, that sounds good. They are imagery going into the overnight hours.
00:07:50:29 – 00:07:57:26
Speaker 2
Well, I was going to do, some of. The bears imagery.
00:07:57:27 – 00:07:59:28
Speaker 1
Okay. Okay. You can start with that.
00:08:00:00 – 00:08:25:29
Speaker 2
Yeah. Well. All right, so, goes a lot of times it’s hard to see where the actual clouds are, the edge of the cloud. And if we look at this particular image here, we see where they’ve drawn the frontal boundary. But where is the edge of the cloud and is behind it? And what we’re looking at here is the bears.
00:08:26:01 – 00:08:58:17
Speaker 2
Sunday night band. So which, you know, actually offers you a visible image in the evening. A lot of the time, if you get a lot of. They’re all right here. And there’s illumination by the moon. And so here you can see a little bit of where the edge of the cloud is. And if we compare that with the IR image, I mean, just to Paris here.
00:08:58:19 – 00:09:20:03
Speaker 2
With Nevada, the way pair with the standard Earth image at that time. So if I toggle between this image, which is the day night band and the eyes are, you see, it’s very hard to see where the edges. You kind of see the edge up here, but you know, the edge in this area gets a little bit harder.
00:09:20:03 – 00:09:56:05
Speaker 2
You could try a different enhancement, but the day night band kind of again, offers you a visible image in the evening, and it can help you, be a little bit more confident about where exactly is the cloud edge. And this is that’s a high res here. So it’s that about a one kilometer. So you’ll get more detail than you will on, a ghost image, in terms of where the cloud edges are.
00:09:56:07 – 00:10:17:20
Speaker 2
Not sure what else I could show. Scott, know that you say that you had a. Yeah, I got some things about. How are a few pass over this. Got it. I think it’s got some tape and a few other products.
00:10:17:22 – 00:10:19:22
Speaker 1
Yeah, I can see that now.
00:10:19:24 – 00:10:48:05
Speaker 2
Oh, I was muted. Sorry. So I have two things to show that that that should be helpful for, you know, focusing on where will the most interesting things happen. And what I’m showing you right now is the near cost, product. This is a Lagrangian forecast in time using the sounder data. So it’s looking at the low level moisture and the upper level moisture that you can that you can that you can diagnose using the sounder.
00:10:48:08 – 00:11:11:18
Speaker 2
So you’re really looking at the convective instability there. You have two layers of moisture. They’re moving at different rates. And this is showing how that’s evolving with time. A little bit of a problem today because there is so much cloudiness down over the southern Plains. But you you do see regions where there is more, like, instability indicated later on the going to.
00:11:11:18 – 00:11:38:06
Speaker 2
So this is only going up to 1980 at the moment is six hour forecast. From 13 the and you see that it’s certainly saying that central Oklahoma has much less stability there in the early afternoon. Then points just to the north and west. I also have a loop here that to something else you can load up in a website, which is the lifted index from the sounder.
00:11:38:08 – 00:12:02:26
Speaker 2
And again, you see a lot of cloudiness there, but you also see some holes through the clouds where you’re some where you’re already seeing even at 13, the, some DPI imagery. Values of let me just put the cursor on them. Are these so minus nine and -ten feet. So there’s lots of instability there to be realized once the trigger can be recognized.
00:12:03:01 – 00:12:27:08
Speaker 2
And also a lot of instability over the Middle Tennessee Valley. So for later on, once the system gets going, there is stuff to feed on it. And you can you can even see where the boundary is here over, northwest Arkansas. Well, northwest Arkansas and, southwestern Missouri. So you can really see the nice gradient here between, portions.
00:12:27:08 – 00:12:55:02
Speaker 2
I guess this would be near northwest of Joplin, up to Fort Scott, and then down toward Fayetteville, where the instability is a lot higher. So it’s a great indication of just where is the biggest instability right now. And I also think that, I should add that Scott has applied an enhancement here that I think is a lot more intuitive than this, better than has been for this product.
00:12:55:05 – 00:13:23:16
Speaker 2
So if you want to look at stuff from the sounder, the standard enhancements that I think are awful. So we have, some tailored enhancements that I think, you know, draw the eye to the more important areas of instability or, or DPW. So we encourage you to, apply enhancements that are a lot more appropriate. I’ll just reload and show them what, what the default enhancement looks like.
00:13:23:16 – 00:13:53:12
Speaker 2
It’s not it’s not pretty. No. So there’s the default enhancement. Very hard to tell exactly where, the instability is unless you unless you already know it, but just, are you going to push those out to the post? Those better enhancements? I believe they’re already they already ought to be in. The menus. I’m not. Okay. Positive if they are.
00:13:53:14 – 00:13:59:15
Speaker 2
So you can see, let me just zoom in a little bit here.
00:13:59:17 – 00:14:20:29
Speaker 2
So again, you can see this is a 15 D now instead of 13 D, but you can see the, the nice values for getting all over the place. Don’t know what’s going on in Oklahoma. But still some very nice instability ready to be tapped once the convection, once the convection gets going. That’s all I have.
00:14:20:29 – 00:14:24:29
Speaker 2
Dan, if you want to,
00:14:25:01 – 00:14:51:22
Speaker 1
Okay, I am going to, bring it back to my screen here, and I’m going to close a couple things here to see if that helps. If not, I’m going to turn it over to if that doesn’t work, I’m going to turn it over to, Bernie here and she’ll be able to, bring up the synthetic imagery that I want to show here.
00:14:51:25 – 00:15:16:12
Speaker 1
So just give me a few seconds here while I close out a few things that are slow in my system. Down.
00:15:16:15 – 00:15:47:15
Speaker 1
Okay. I think I think my system is back to normal here. So what I’m going to do is bring up the synthetic imagery from the, Nam nest, and we’re going to assess, the cloud coverage forecast here.
00:15:47:18 – 00:15:56:08
Speaker 1
My system still giving me problem. Ed, do you have this up on your system right now?
00:15:56:10 – 00:15:58:21
Speaker 1
Oh, okay. Well, actually, it looks like.
00:15:58:24 – 00:16:00:10
Speaker 2
No, I don’t, but okay.
00:16:00:10 – 00:16:18:05
Speaker 1
It looks like I have it. I’m just having some Ram issues here. It looks like, So I’m going to stop it right here. This is the forecast. Out to 12 hours. This is 12 Z out at 12 early this morning. And again, this is from the zero zero run of the Nam nest. So you use this just like you’re using it.
00:16:18:05 – 00:16:37:15
Speaker 1
That goes imagery here in terms of forecast cloud cover. And what we can do is zoom in over the region of interest. We do lose our times by doing that. But I wanted to zoom in over the area of interest, and you can see some higher clouds, which might indicate, forecast convection here over eastern Oklahoma at this particular time.
00:16:37:15 – 00:16:59:08
Speaker 1
This is at, 12. The with lower clouds, the stratus clouds would be these cooler brightness temperatures that we can see over western Oklahoma and then into Texas Panhandle. So we have the cold front in that region. And what I’m going to do is, advance along forward. 14 Z right here. Here’s 15 Z. Get to about our time.
00:16:59:08 – 00:17:19:22
Speaker 1
Right. This is 16 Z about the current time right here. And you can see the low clouds show up, quite well here, especially across the Texas Panhandle and, across Texas here. So so it does have a fair amount of cloud coverage. It seems to be consistent with the, visible on the imagery that we’re looking at earlier, for, for our current time here.
00:17:19:22 – 00:17:46:03
Speaker 1
And we’re just going to march ahead, in the forecast here. Here’s 17 Z here’s 18, and it looks like it has the initial, areas of clearing right here in the areas, south of, Abilene, extending up towards, Wichita Falls. It has this, initial area of clearing or at less or at least less stratus around, through this particular, region right here.
00:17:46:06 – 00:18:09:05
Speaker 1
And then we advance along to 19 Z and then 20 and again, I’ll stop it right here. This is the forecast at 20, it appears that we have, either partly cloudy skies or clear skies. It can’t be resolved. Remember, this is for kilometer, model output. So that, partly cloudy field tends to be smoothed out some when you’re looking at this.
00:18:09:05 – 00:18:32:22
Speaker 1
So, so you can assess at this point it’s either partly cloudy or clear skies across this region here. So I think the key to take away is that, the forecast is for insulation taking place across this region of, Texas right here and extending up into the Red River and portions of south central Oklahoma. And you can clearly see the front delineated right here with the Stratus Line.
00:18:32:24 – 00:18:55:18
Speaker 1
Just north of that, it extends back to just south of, Childress, over to the Amarillo area. This is at, 20. And then we’ll advance forward a couple more hours to 22. You can clearly see the, front right here, northeast to southwest, oriented across central Oklahoma, starting back towards, the the Wichita Falls area and then bending back towards Amarillo.
00:18:55:20 – 00:19:24:12
Speaker 1
Advance forward. Here’s 23. The here zeros right here. And you can see here’s our line of clouds right here. So our our triple point would be in the general vicinity of, oh, Altus, Oklahoma, or just southeast of, Childress, Texas. So this, this general vicinity as forecast. By the model here, advance forward to Wednesday and you have, a storm that’s forecast right here.
00:19:24:15 – 00:19:46:11
Speaker 1
It looks like it’s near Altus or maybe west of Fredericktown and, southwest Oklahoma. So it has convective initiation in this in this particular region right here. Partly cloudy or clear skies forecast south of that. So you could have pretty good instability. Just south of the storm. So that storm could take advantage of quite a bit of instability here.
00:19:46:14 – 00:20:15:09
Speaker 1
And then, is forecast to move towards the northeast, towards the central Oklahoma area. Also, notice, as we go back in time here, we see additional convection right here just north of that. That would be north of the, front. That’s forecast, as, as it moves, towards the north here or, or perhaps it’s, it’s hard to say when you’re looking at hourly imagery.
00:20:15:09 – 00:20:34:27
Speaker 1
It could be along an outflow boundary. It could be, with a warm front that’s moving northward. But but what you can tell here is that it would have convection, forecast in this region as well. This is A to Z. Here’s, three Z. And I’ll go ahead and advance along 2 to 4 Z here.
00:20:34:29 – 00:20:59:05
Speaker 1
With the initial convection moving off towards the northeast, looks like along that, boundary, that warm frontal boundary. And then it has some new convection, forming down here in the original area where we saw the first storms in the Altus area and advancing towards the northeast fairly late. This would be at five five UTC here. One thing I’m going to try to do, hopefully it’ll let me do this here.
00:20:59:05 – 00:21:38:29
Speaker 1
I’m going to compare this to the nice old wharf forecast. So, see if I can pull this off without any Ram issues here. So I’m going to bring up the 10.35 imagery here. This is a different model. It’s the warfare W that’s run at an SSL again run once a day at zero Z. It’s it’s also, at four kilometer resolution.
00:21:39:01 – 00:21:40:16
Speaker 1
Let’s see.
00:21:40:18 – 00:21:44:02
Speaker 2
And if you want to pass it back to me, I have some, cloud top cooling I can show.
00:21:44:03 – 00:21:59:12
Speaker 1
Yeah. Yeah. I’ll go back to you, and then I’ll come back to me. It looks like it might just take a minute here. So let’s go back to Scott L for a minute here. While that loads.
00:21:59:14 – 00:22:21:17
Speaker 2
We’ve loaded up the, goes imagery on top of the cloud top cooling. So this is a convective product that shows you know which convective cells are growing the most. There’s one down here. And so this is from 13 D. This is there’s one down here crossing into Missouri like a step forward in time. You’ll see there’s the cloud top calling as being diagnosed.
00:22:21:19 – 00:22:51:18
Speaker 2
But it looks at the moment like everything is still fairly well capped because it’s diagnosis. Good cloud top cooling over over the Ozarks. And this line over eastern Oklahoma. But nothing really gets going. So the convection starts up, has a nice cooling signal, and then it doesn’t, progress. So the very last image here there is there’s also some nice cloud top cooling at the tail end of this fairly big complex up over Iowa stretching back.
00:22:51:18 – 00:23:18:01
Speaker 2
So if you remember where the instability is, it was down down through here. So this convection here isn’t really feeding off all that instability. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens when these cells or the cloud or the where the focus at the right focus of the forcing. What’s causing the cloud top cooling here when that gets closer to the instability and see what happens and there’s nothing going on down in Texas yet with the cloud top cooling.
00:23:18:01 – 00:23:51:03
Speaker 2
So, just another product that you can use that’s really handy to say, okay, which storms are initially growing so quickly and you can actually relate that cloud top cooling to what the subsequent radar imagery should look like? There’s some studies that show if you have a really strong cloud top cooling, you’re more likely to get, you know, a big a big V or a big signal at team, you know, the, the, reflectivity at the minus ten Celsius level, or the maximum expected hail size as well.
00:23:51:06 – 00:23:56:07
Speaker 2
So just another product that you can use to monitor this ongoing situation.
00:23:56:10 – 00:24:19:03
Speaker 1
Okay. Thanks, Scott. I’m going to take it back, to my screen here. I have the synthetic imagery from the missile warfare, and I’m going to back it up to 12 Z and let me go ahead and zoom in, just like I did before. And we’re going to advance forward just as a comparison with the other, synthetic imagery from the other model that we looked at.
00:24:19:03 – 00:24:48:27
Speaker 1
So we’ll advance along to 14 Z, and the clouds become more evident as we advance forward. So this is 16 Z. And this is 18 z right here. So in this particular model it has this clearing an area of clearing here. Just south west of Wichita Falls extending towards the southwest. Similar location in terms of the, the the front here that you can see over the Texas Panhandle, extending back to the northeast, advance along to actually, it looks like it has, storms here.
00:24:48:27 – 00:25:09:04
Speaker 1
This is at 19 Z. It has convection. And, in a sense of that same area right around Altus here a lot earlier, than the other model that we’re looking at. Again, this is the missile warfare model. And we advance forward to 20 Z. And you can see that storm, is forecast to move towards the northeast.
00:25:09:07 – 00:25:32:11
Speaker 1
Advance forward to 21 Z. And again, looking at the cloud field here, you can see, a fair amount of, clearing that’s taking place down here in Texas and extending up to slightly north of the Red River here, with additional convection that’s forecast. And, southwest Oklahoma and advance along to 20, three Z. I believe this is right here.
00:25:32:11 – 00:26:14:17
Speaker 1
And and again, it has that, convection in southwest Oklahoma. So it’s interesting that both models, have the initial convection down and about the same area right around, Altus here and, forecast to move, towards the northeast, essentially along that, warm front through the evening hours. Now, keep in mind, the best way to make use of the synthetic imagery is to compare it to the Go’s imagery throughout the day and see how similar it is or not in terms of, if it is quite similar in terms of how it’s evolving, during the day, then that’ll give you, more confidence in the future hours for the short term
00:26:14:17 – 00:26:34:07
Speaker 1
forecast here. If it’s not, if it starts to deviate some from it and then you would lose confidence, for the remaining, model run. So just be quick. Be sure to compare that, with the Go’s imagery throughout the day. That’s the synthetic imagery that I showed you here is available. And the Sierra goes are proving ground real time products.
00:26:34:07 – 00:26:50:26
Speaker 1
You can find both of those if you want to review those again. They’re right here. If you’re interested in that data, let us know and we can, it is available, in your, in a website as well. So, you can contact us afterwards at any point, if you’re interested in this data. And that’s it.
00:26:50:26 – 00:27:11:14
Speaker 1
Let me go ahead. Since we didn’t have a, a lot of discussion, let me just open it up. Any questions or comments or discussion points? Anybody has.
00:27:11:16 – 00:27:58:29
Speaker 1
Okay. I hear none. And I see that we’re, just about out of time here, so. So unless you have any questions or any, anything to additional things to discuss. Well, thank you for attending to today’s visit. Satellite chat. We’ll have another one, at 130 mountain time this afternoon if you’re interested in attending. And thanks for participating.