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00:00:00:02 – 00:00:08:18
Speaker 1
And, first thing I want to do is ask, Steve Amber in there at Tulsa if, first of all, if you’re ready to go.
00:00:08:21 – 00:00:09:09
Speaker 2
Yeah. I’m ready.
00:00:09:11 – 00:00:27:12
Speaker 1
Okay, great. I just want to make sure, because we did switch over on our phone lines here. So, first, Steve, is there anything. You have any questions about. Or you’d like to like us to cover or, anything you’d like to share before we, before we start showing some stuff here?
00:00:27:15 – 00:00:34:16
Speaker 2
No, no, I don’t think so. I, I’m I’m,
00:00:34:18 – 00:01:04:24
Speaker 2
Well, you know what? Now, since you asked, there was, there was something last. I think it was last week. That kind of moved down over my area, and I guess it was just some really thin, high clouds. It almost looked like smoke, but nobody was reporting anything, and I assumed it was some kind of a series or something that maybe was being generated by a gravity wave or some kind of wave that was moving our way.
00:01:04:24 – 00:01:10:22
Speaker 2
And I know you guys like the whole country. I guess nobody happened to look at that, did they?
00:01:10:24 – 00:01:11:01
Speaker 1
We.
00:01:11:01 – 00:01:12:02
Speaker 2
Can hear which day it was.
00:01:12:03 – 00:01:14:24
Speaker 1
Yeah, we can check out the date here.
00:01:14:27 – 00:01:39:21
Speaker 2
No, I don’t. It just it just, Well, we we we’ve had a milky sky here for, I don’t know, last week and for a couple of weeks or so prior to that, it’s just kind of kind of milky, you know what? What a nice clear blue. But you really couldn’t see much. Have you guys been noticing that or.
00:01:39:24 – 00:02:00:19
Speaker 2
I mean, there’s been other fires out west and I imagine with any kind of west southwest flow, you’re going to be getting smoke debris from Arizona, New Mexico or Colorado. But. Well, yeah. And I agree. And we and we we saw that a few weeks earlier when we had some stuff out there. But but this was this was a more of a northerly flow.
00:02:00:21 – 00:02:21:16
Speaker 2
Yeah. This was like it was coming at us from the northeast, and it was just a kind of a broad area, maybe, 150 miles or so long and maybe 50 to 100 miles wide and just kind of migrated down across northeast Oklahoma, came out of southwest Missouri. And and it just, you know, it was just kind of hard to see.
00:02:21:16 – 00:02:44:09
Speaker 2
I started to call the Springfield office and ask them to go outside and look around and see what they were seeing, because, you know, I mean, the main, they source and open that stuff and but, I, it’s just a real sound. You know what? This will remind me the next time I see something, I’ll write it down and otherwise.
00:02:44:09 – 00:02:49:03
Speaker 2
Yeah, I’ll just. I’m just going to listen in and see what you guys have to say, and.
00:02:49:06 – 00:02:50:09
Speaker 1
Okay, well, if you do.
00:02:50:10 – 00:03:17:18
Speaker 2
I’ll look around on the, imagery to see if I can find it. So is it within the was it in July or was it in June? I see him. It was probably in July. Okay. Before the fourth or after? 20 questions. Let me think. Today, it must have been before. Okay, I’ll check around.
00:03:17:18 – 00:03:47:06
Speaker 2
It could have been as early as, June 26th or seventh. Okay, definitely. It was. It was a weekday thing. I looked up some imagery and see what? See what I can find. Okay. And I’m thinking it was probably middle of the day, I think. Okay. Yeah. Just I don’t know, I, I guess I had all I guess all I can assume is that and I’m trying to think put this together.
00:03:47:09 – 00:04:08:01
Speaker 2
If you, if you have a relatively moist layer a lot, you know, but no clouds. Right. And you get some kind of a little gravity wave or something coming off some convection and it gives a little, little lift to that area. It’s just possible you could lift it just enough to begin to condense just a little bit. I couldn’t yeah.
00:04:08:03 – 00:04:24:01
Speaker 2
Evidence that I think, went over the ice on a condensation of the ice. I’m guessing that’s what must have happened. But I’ll check it out and see what I can find. Okay? Okay. Now I’ll listen in. Okay. Thanks.
00:04:24:03 – 00:04:48:03
Speaker 1
Okay. I’ll just, lead off here by, just briefly discussing what’s going on in the tropics, and it’s, pretty interesting in terms of what’s going on. And we’re getting into that, time of year here. So, what I’m going to do is. Minimize my browser here.
00:04:48:05 – 00:04:49:28
Speaker 3
It’s not doing it.
00:04:50:01 – 00:05:17:10
Speaker 1
Well, it looks like I’m having a little bit of technical difficulty, so I’m going to turn it over to, oh. Actually, it’s okay. Looks like it’s working now. So just a little bit slow. Let’s see, I will start off with this water vapor imagery right here. And just kind of go, back and forth here slowly and point out this particular feature right here, pretty much just west of the, Antilles.
00:05:17:10 – 00:06:00:16
Speaker 1
That’s, I just want to start off with the larger scale water vapor and, just give you an idea of where we’re we’re looking at here, and I’ll advance along. This is pretty close to current right now. So just south of Hispaniola, we see this area of, convection here. And what we’re going to do next is just, zoom in on that area.
00:06:00:18 – 00:06:09:26
Speaker 1
Well, I’m having some technical difficulties with my computer here. It’s very slow, I guess. Maybe I should close a few things here.
00:06:09:28 – 00:06:12:21
Speaker 2
You want to throw control to me, and I’ll talk about some stuff?
00:06:12:23 – 00:06:26:06
Speaker 1
Yeah, let’s do that. And I’ll close some things and, come back to me in a in a second. Er. So let’s see. I’ll turn it over to you.
00:06:26:08 – 00:06:29:29
Speaker 2
So can you see my screen now?
00:06:30:01 – 00:06:31:00
Speaker 1
Yes.
00:06:31:03 – 00:06:59:02
Speaker 2
Okay. I wanted to talk a little bit about moisture today. And the thing that’s driving this is all of the heavy rains that have been falling, say, east of, I don’t know, 105 West. Over the past couple of weeks. I know, for example, Pittsburgh is having flooding today. We had our second wettest June on record. So there’s just been this amazing, six week period of really enhanced rainfall over parts of the eastern United States.
00:06:59:02 – 00:07:16:08
Speaker 2
I don’t know if it’s been that wet in Tulsa. But so just some things to show you how you can look at the water vapor. And then what you’re seeing on the screen right now is something I pulled off the web. This is also available in a website by an LDM subscription. And if you want it, I mean, if you have the bandwidth to do it.
00:07:16:08 – 00:07:43:26
Speaker 2
But you can look at it on the web too. Just it’s really nice for situational awareness, but it’s a microwave product, so it’s only available over the oceans. And you’re looking at the global distribution of total precipitable water. And you can see a couple of features. You can see, that, Sean Paul moving into the Caribbean very quickly and then kind of see the change in the direction to is moving about maybe, toward 300.
00:07:43:26 – 00:08:10:25
Speaker 2
Then it changes once it gets into the Caribbean to go maybe to 80. So it’s skirting the southern portions of Hispaniola right now. This is a great product. Look for atmospheric rivers and the and the winter. You in the summer too. But it’s typically more associated with the extra tropical cyclones in the winter. So you’ll see big plumes of, moisture coming out of the tropics and end of the West Coast.
00:08:10:27 – 00:08:32:00
Speaker 2
When there is a big flood in Nashville in 2010, I think you could also see the, atmospheric river starting in the it down here south of, Central America, then moving up through the Gulf of of course, you don’t see what’s going on in the over the, over Conus because, again, this is a microwave only product.
00:08:32:03 – 00:08:54:12
Speaker 2
But there is, this is great for looking out over the ocean. Now, if you’re looking over Conus, there are a couple of products you can use to look at total precipitable water. And one is, one of the Thunder products. So we have total precipitable water that’s going to show up here. This is, you’re using just the sounder imagery.
00:08:54:12 – 00:09:16:19
Speaker 2
So you’re seeing that goes from 13 and the goes 15 sounder footprints here. I’m really not a fan of the default enhancement that comes up. I know I don’t know what the heck is going on here on 42mm. There’s this overlap with a very dry. So I typically we’ll just change the enhancement here to something that, we’ve put together here.
00:09:16:19 – 00:09:37:16
Speaker 2
So this is the Precipitable water. And we’re going to change it. So it looks like this, which I think is a much more intuitive. So the, you see the very dry regions, over the let me just put in a couple more frames here. You see the very dry regions out over the Intermountain West and a whole bunch of moisture in the eastern half of the United States.
00:09:37:16 – 00:09:58:05
Speaker 2
Just animate this. And the nice thing about this is, from my perspective, you can really see, the dry air that’s come into Wisconsin. We’ve had the dew points go from around 70 down into the mid 50s overnight. So it’s one of those very refreshing days. But you see the, the, the real soupy air mass that’s sitting out over the eastern part of the U.S..
00:09:58:05 – 00:10:22:09
Speaker 2
So that’s just looking at the go sounder. So great for situational awareness and another product that’s great for that. Let me just clear this out is the whoops I always do that with this is the Blended total precipitable water which is showing up here. And we’ll just have this and made as well. So you can also see regions of a lot of precipitable water.
00:10:22:12 – 00:10:45:05
Speaker 2
So this is a product that’s using both the sounder and also GPS occultation to give you a product that shows, where you have more, where you have a lot of precipitable water. And I mentioned that there was flooding in Pittsburgh. And you can see, the high values of principal of water that are occurring there as the, convection moves over Pittsburgh.
00:10:45:05 – 00:11:06:02
Speaker 2
And this you can look at the blended total price of bottled water, for this particular product, I think a more useful thing is, especially for situational awareness is the percent of normal. And let me just put that one up here. So the regions in yellow are where you have greater than 200% of normal for precipitable for the precipitable water.
00:11:06:04 – 00:11:30:29
Speaker 2
And you’ll see some hints of this at the end, over the northeast part of the U.S. so whenever you get toward this darker blue or the or the, yellows, you’re getting into a very, very moist air mass where you can have flooding rain. So this is a great product to have or to look at every day just to, just to get ask to help your situational awareness, you know, is flood there are flooding rains possible?
00:11:31:01 – 00:11:53:08
Speaker 2
Some of these products, so does anyone have any questions on these are three products. So these are all available. You can look at them and they work is the sounder Precipitable water and the, splendid products that are handy to tell you how much moisture is out there in the atmosphere.
00:11:53:11 – 00:12:11:18
Speaker 2
Any, comments or questions are the, are these something that are used? I know sterling’s on the line in Tulsa. Are you using them in your office just to, you know, glance at them every now and then? Or do you look at other products to get the to, get a feel for how much people are going to use it?
00:12:11:18 – 00:12:43:29
Speaker 2
The atmosphere. I think typically the forecasters in Tulsa look at other products, but I’ll certainly show this time. I guess I hadn’t really delved down into this part of it either. Okay. It’s a great for just to look to see what’s going on. Just that, you know, when you’re looking at the large scale before you maybe zero went to the UFO, to, get a handle on what’s going on, I see, and, and Arizona, they’re on the long, the Mogollon Rim, the White Mountains.
00:12:43:29 – 00:13:05:20
Speaker 2
It looks like, they got pretty high up there. Is that? Well, that’s a normal. So what’s. I’m not sure what normal is right there. I’m not quite sure if the, summer monsoon is going on. I know that they had. What? Tropical Storm Eric was down here, so there might be some moisture from that coming up with the Gulf surge.
00:13:05:22 – 00:13:20:23
Speaker 2
Yeah, that does look like it’s getting kind of moist down there. So I would expect there to be some, pretty active convection today. I think they had some convection over those mountains, yesterday. I don’t know how intense it was, but, Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
00:13:20:26 – 00:13:30:26
Speaker 4
I can’t we go back, Scott, to the other one that you were showing just for a second. Oh, the, the actual values, because, yes, they were concerned about flooding down.
00:13:30:26 – 00:13:37:29
Speaker 2
There with a surge of moisture.
00:13:38:02 – 00:13:58:14
Speaker 2
Oh, yes. They do have, quite a lot there. So it’s up to almost, or close to two inches. Not quite, but you can see the trend end of it is for it to be increasing so that it does look like there’s the Gulf surge coming up, the, Gulf of Gulf of California.
00:13:58:16 – 00:14:14:17
Speaker 1
It’s got can you bring up the air during the overnight? Because I think there’s an MCs over that general vicinity as well.
00:14:14:20 – 00:14:15:09
Unknown
You’re making my.
00:14:15:09 – 00:14:26:22
Speaker 2
Little laptop work. But yes, indeed.
00:14:26:24 – 00:14:43:27
Speaker 2
And this would be something that you could see. Because it’s over the Gulf of California. You should be able to see it in the bay here. So you do see the the, the throw at the beginning with Tropical Storm Eric, and you do see a ton of moisture all the way up and down the Gulf of California.
00:14:43:27 – 00:15:14:12
Speaker 2
So, that does look like a very nice mix over the south west. The, the Flagstaff office has a weather story image, and it looks like, it’s just about, showing a lot of, precipitable water, air, moisture and greens and blues. Says crosser is also okay. Got a chance. Oh, it’s a water vapor imaging system.
00:15:14:14 – 00:15:31:27
Speaker 2
So they’re looking at it. Okay. That’s all I have. Okay. And if you want to take control, okay.
00:15:32:00 – 00:15:46:11
Speaker 1
Okay. Before, continue on here, I see that Sterling has, joined us. Welcome, Sterling. And I just want to ask Sterling if you have any questions or any event that you’ve seen recently. If you have any questions or you want to discuss.
00:15:46:14 – 00:15:50:29
Speaker 2
Hi. This is Steve, the suit here. We don’t have anything at the moment. Thank you.
00:15:51:03 – 00:16:19:19
Speaker 1
Okay. Okay. Yeah, I just wanted to show, briefly. This. My computer will stop right here. Maybe I’ll just, Let’s see. Close down a couple windows here.
00:16:19:22 – 00:16:45:04
Speaker 1
What I’ll do is bring up, this page right here. This is the, e trap page at, from this. This it stands for ensemble Tropical Rainfall potential or E trap. And, what this is, is, a product that looks at, precipitation from tropical cyclones. So since we’re moving into the season, I thought it’d be something interesting to point out here.
00:16:45:07 – 00:17:14:21
Speaker 1
This is firsthand how and what I’ll kind of show here is that, they produce these, these, tropical rainfall, precipitation, or so-called traps here, for six hour periods, which is what you’re looking at here. And then they have probabilities of exceedance, for example, 25mm or 50mm and so forth. And then over on the right, they have the actual, forecast of rain.
00:17:14:21 – 00:17:47:07
Speaker 1
So if we go to the bottom right here, this would give us the, rainfall forecast over the next 24 hours, which is, just to some of those various, six hour traps that we saw. So. So it is an ensemble, product of, of, various, satellite and satellite derived precipitation. And you can see, these streaks of precipitation, it is, making use of the official track from NHC so that the speed of the system getting it right in the direction is, very important.
00:17:47:07 – 00:18:12:28
Speaker 1
But you can see values here. It looks like to maybe three inches here, just south of Hispaniola. And then on this type of track here, this isn’t a, huge system. So, we don’t have, you know, these really, really high amounts like you might see with a more significant system, but I just wanted to point that out as, something to watch and also point out the probability of exceedance.
00:18:13:05 – 00:18:52:18
Speaker 1
This is the probability of exceeding, 50mm of rain over that, same time period here. So, so you can see these, contours. This would be percent probability of exceeding those, of those thresholds here. So, you can look at these in the, the Atlantic or the Pacific or Northwest Pacific if you’re, if you’re interested, have if you have any questions on, you can go to the visit homepage here, go to training sessions and scroll down to Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential Trap.
00:18:52:20 – 00:19:09:08
Speaker 1
And you could take a, training session that I put together, a few years ago. If you if you need, more detailed information about that, let’s see any, any questions or comments?
00:19:09:10 – 00:19:13:14
Speaker 2
What’s the, exceedance probability computed?
00:19:13:16 – 00:19:43:15
Speaker 1
It pretty much takes into account, various satellites, polar orbiting satellites, I believe, for the most part. And, it goes through, algorithm. It is essentially, the products, the, I believe it’s called the auto estimator product. If you’re familiar with that, that, Bob Cooley Gauss has put together, they, they use that same algorithm here on tropical cyclones.
00:19:43:15 – 00:19:56:28
Speaker 1
So, so it’s kind of tuned for, tropical cyclones. But, but yeah, this this is the, training session on that, if you want more information on that particular product here.
00:19:57:00 – 00:20:00:21
Speaker 2
I’ll look at it. Thank.
00:20:00:24 – 00:20:08:21
Speaker 1
Okay. I believe, Scott, do you know if Scott, back? Myers is on the line. I don’t.
00:20:08:21 – 00:20:09:23
Speaker 2
Know if he’s around.
00:20:09:26 – 00:20:31:03
Speaker 1
So. Okay. Okay, I just want to make sure, well, that’s all we have to present. Unless you have, anybody has any more questions or comments for us? Anything, satellite related in particular? Oh, Bernie, did you want to show some, fire stuff? I forgot about you here. Sorry. Yeah, we can look at this. We can.
00:20:31:06 – 00:21:14:13
Speaker 3
Since fires has been a topic, and I was thinking that Scott, what is was going to be on the line, but, I don’t seem, he had some good blog entries, and, one of them happened to be over fires in, southwest because as of yesterday, there were still some fires burning in Nevada. And this is an image here that I pulled up from, I think the day after one of his blog entries and this, let me see, what was it called that was called the.
00:21:14:15 – 00:21:44:10
Speaker 3
Carpenter Fire. And that’s down here near Las Vegas, west of Las Vegas. And, I was looking around whips and I saw or at least on the visit page, and there was an old, color table that, highlights the warm. And here, temperatures warmer than 40 C, and then it had some, a color table for the colder end up here to highlight, ice clouds.
00:21:44:12 – 00:22:06:09
Speaker 3
And, as you can see, this fire, this is a 930 UTC, so it’s during the middle of the night and even on goes imagery, it still looks pretty hot. The black spot right there is where you get no data, where it’s actually saturating. And just to refresh your memory, the imagery that goes into the equipment at this point is still eight bit.
00:22:06:09 – 00:22:29:22
Speaker 3
So your saturation is, three were the highest or the warmest value I should say is 330 K, which is about, what’s that come down to. That’s about what, 57 C? But in a way, it’s the warmest value I actually saw was about 53 C, so when it gets to 57 C it’s saying no data and they whips.
00:22:29:24 – 00:22:57:27
Speaker 3
So we’re seeing some really warm temperatures here in the 3.9. And you can see other warmer temperatures as well. And then there’s also a fire up here in the corner or another corner of Nevada, up towards the northwest of this one. But the other interesting thing that Scott was pointing out, and we’ll go to the next slide here, is that, and I don’t see it as clearly as his example, for this particular time period.
00:22:57:27 – 00:23:32:04
Speaker 3
And I’ll show you a minute why I chose this time. But this is 930 and where the fire had the hotspot, in the 3.9, you can see that it’s a little bit warmer in the 10.7. And last year, when we had, really hot fire to the west of us here in Fort Collins, the High Park fire, I was noticing a similar thing where you could actually see a hotspot in the 10.7 imagery as well, in the sense that it was warmer than the surrounding by, oh, about ten degrees C, and I thought that that was pretty interesting.
00:23:32:06 – 00:23:58:27
Speaker 3
I chose 930 right now because oops. And this is what it would look like on our, the old 3.9, color table that we use for Rams this. And here at Sur, we still use it. One of the things I point out is that when you do use this and you keep the warm and just white, there’s a little bit more contrast in terms of seeing the fire.
00:23:58:29 – 00:24:39:18
Speaker 3
And when you get to the saturation point or the saturation to warm and, it still stays white, it doesn’t turn black. And you don’t confuse it with the, black of the, ice clouds. This is the mode is channel 21, which is 3.9, and it’s sensitive on the warm end. And I brought this up because when I, you see this yellow box here which is surrounding the fire, and you could see I still have this color table where it’s highlighting the warmer temperatures, but, we’re actually seeing some quite a few of the black boxes, which means it’s getting past the Or warmer than the 330.
00:24:39:20 – 00:25:26:29
Speaker 3
And for this particular scene on this channel, I was finding that the warmest pixels were. And let me look at my little thing here. My warmest pixel was 503 K, which is 230 C or 446 Fahrenheit. So that’s actually pretty warm here. And the average temperature over this box was 307 K, which is 34 C. The other reason why I’m bringing it up is because when we go to Goes-r, which is a few years away, the 3.9 is supposed to have, go to a warm end of 400 K, so we’ll be able to see fires that are a little warmer.
00:25:27:01 – 00:25:51:17
Speaker 3
And as you can see, because we’re seeing, a lot of the warm at 3.9 here, when we look at the cloud tops, we’re seeing noise. Motus actually has a channel 22 that again near the same 3.9. But it’s more, but he put it less noise at the cold in. So we’re seeing a little bit more detail in the cloud top temperatures.
00:25:51:17 – 00:26:17:28
Speaker 3
We won’t have this on Goes-r, but I just thought it’s an interesting fact to point out. But when I put the box over here, the warmest temperatures we’re getting were actually, it was saturating it. I think it was, 357 K, which is 84 C. But one last interesting fact, and this is the Motus Aqua channel 31, which is 11 micron, which is real similar to our 10.7.
00:26:18:05 – 00:26:44:10
Speaker 3
Here you can see the hot spots of the fire. And here it was. The warmest pixel I saw was 445 K. So that’s 342 Fahrenheit or 172 Celsius. And so this is similar to what we might be able to see on, goes-r. But of course, with Goes-r, it’s going to be a two kilometer pixel where it’s right now this is a one kilometer pixel.
00:26:44:12 – 00:27:13:04
Speaker 3
So, I thought those were some interesting facts and something to look forward to on future satellites. But this this indeed is a pretty, hot fire. And as, some other, forecasters worry, the the immense would tell you, you hope that the fire lays down a little bit at night. But in this case, it’s still a hot fire and it’s not laying down very much so it’s still, has potential to grow.
00:27:13:04 – 00:27:26:00
Speaker 3
So that was another, the last point I’d like to bring up. So any questions on that or any comments?
00:27:26:02 – 00:27:31:22
Speaker 2
So very interesting Bernie. Thank you for sharing.
00:27:31:24 – 00:27:43:00
Speaker 1
Okay. Okay. Before we sign off, any other questions from that Tulsa or Sterling?
00:27:43:02 – 00:27:43:21
Speaker 2
We’re good here.
00:27:43:22 – 00:28:06:20
Speaker 1
Okay. Well, well, thank you very much for attending. And if, you ever have any, you know, questions or it’s just something that you’re curious about, just let us know, and, we’d be more than happy to to work with you. And if you wanted to, you know, say, say, lead off one of these sessions in the future with a, you know, five minute presentation or so that would lead into a discussion that we that’d be, fantastic.
00:28:06:22 – 00:28:13:02
Speaker 1
So, so, yeah, just just let us know if you ever come across something that you’re curious about.
00:28:13:05 – 00:28:14:05
Speaker 2
Appreciate it.
00:28:14:07 – 00:28:17:24
Speaker 1
Okay. Thanks, everybody. And have a great day.
00:28:17:27 – 00:28:18:26
Speaker 2
Okay. Thanks, Dan.